The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Joey Votto ($3,600): First Baseman, Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are taking on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in a game with the highest total of the day. That should be a good omen for Joey Votto as he looks to build off his recent hot streak.
The Reds’ first baseman has looked good over his immediate sample, going 4-for-13 in his last three games. More impressively, all four hits have been extra-base knocks, resulting in two runs scored and two RBIs.
Sixteen seasons in the majors have done little to slow Votto down at the plate. He continues to deliver 10.9% barrel and 42.0% hard-hit rates, leading to a .438 expected slugging percentage. His actual mark is just .378, so he still has room for growth moving forward.
Cubs’ probable starter Kyle Hendricks is getting trounced, accumulating a .527 expected slugging percentage and 38.9% hard-hit rate. Votto should add to Hendrick’s misery tonight and is our top bargain on DK slates.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Jorge Alfaro ($2,100): Catcher, San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres catcher Jorge Alfaro has seen his role increase with the team over the past month. The way he’s hitting, Alfaro should expect to be a mainstay in the Friars’ lineup for the foreseeable future.
Alfaro has torched opponents to the tune of a .949 on-base plus slugging percentage with four home runs, 14 runs batted in, and nine runs scored in June. Those above-average performances have been even more evident over his past few outings. The 29-year-old has hits in five of his past six, with eight RBIs and one run scored.
If chicks dig the long ball, then Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Mitch White is making the crowd swoon, giving up four home runs over his past four appearances. That’s resulted in a barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and expected earned run average that rank in the 38th percentile or worse.
Alfaro is among THE BAT X leaders in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. Don’t overlook the value he brings to Thursday’s FanDuel slates.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Seattle Mariners open up a four-game set with the Oakland Athletics Thursday night at Safeco Field, sending Logan Gilbert to the bump. The former first-round selection has been outstanding at home this season and projects as the top pitching option available on the evening slate.
Gilbert has been nearly unhittable at home, allowing just 28 hits in 35.2 innings pitched at Safeco. Keeping runners off the basepaths has been critical to his success, helping Gilbert to a 2.27 earned run average at home with 36 punchouts.
The Stetson University product has a nasty four-pitch mix, inducing a 22.2% whiff percentage or better with all four options. That’s contributing to a 24.9% strikeout rate and 6.3% barrel rate, ranking in the 64th and 67th percentile, respectively.
Furthering Gilbert and the Mariners’ cause, the Athletics have been the worst-hitting team this season. Oakland has compiled the worst on-base plus slugging percentage at .600, with the tenth-most strikeouts and second-fewest runs scored.
THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections both rate Gilbert as a premier pitching target on tonight’s docket. Circumstances being what they are, Gilbert is the ceiling play worth rostering against the A’s.
Hitter
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers have taken a turn for the worse recently, giving up 12 long balls and 20 earned runs over their past five outings. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be ready to pounce at Rogers Centre tonight.
Things haven’t gone smoothly for Vladdy Jr. this season. The Jays’ first baseman has fallen off last year’s MVP-caliber campaign, posting a .492 slugging percentage with just 28 of his 74 hits going for more than a single. Still, he’s delivering a .560 expected slugging percentage with a hard-hit rate and average exit velocity that put him in the top 2% of hitters.
However, Guerrero Jr. appears to be turning a corner with his recent at-bats. Before last night, the Silver Slugger was riding a seven-game hitting streak, with three of his base hits going for extra bases. That’s part of a much more productive month for Vladdy, who is slugging .587 over the last 30 days.
According to our algorithm, Vladdy Jr. is the median and ceiling projection leader on both platforms. The MVP candidate isn’t missing these days, and the Rays are serving up taters.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Blue Jays. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Of course, Guerrero Jr. isn’t the only viable Blue Jays hitter tonight. Toronto features prominently in our top stacks tool this evening.
The top half of the Jays lineup is loaded with All-Star candidates, starting with George Springer and Bo Bichette in the one and two spots. Springer is tied for the second-best slugging percentage on the team and is leading the way with 45 runs scored. Similarly, Bichette is the Jays’ pace setter with 80 hits, and his 42 runs scored trails only Springer.
Opposing pitchers can’t avoid the next two spots with Guerrero Jr. batting ahead of the sensational Alejandro Kirk. Kirk leads the team in virtually every relative category, ranking first in average, slugging, on-base and OPS. The Blue Jays’ catcher is also the only qualified hitter with more walks than strikeouts.
Teoscar Hernandez brings up the rear but is a safety net for the Jays in the five-hole. The two-time Silver Slugger is fourth in slugging percentage among Jays players with at least 190 at-bats. Moreover, 42.9% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
As noted, the Rays staff isn’t missing bats these days, and the Jays are ready to capitalize.
