The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Taylor Walls ($2,000): Second Baseman/Shortstop, Cincinnati Reds
AL East matchups are already brimming with intensity, and that will once again be the case when the Rays go for the series win against the Red Sox. Tampa’s bats broke out last night, and based on our algorithm, Taylor Walls should keep the party going on Wednesday.
Walls is off to a good start this month, recording hits in three of his past four games, including one double, two runs batted in, and two scored. We’re anticipating more production out of Walls as he and the Rays hitters welcome Brayan Bello in his major league debut.
That could lead to early bullpen usage, another factor elevating Walls’ fantasy profile. Several high-profile Red Sox relievers have struggled over the past week, with Tanner Houck, Matt Strahm, and Hansel Robles combining for six earned runs across their last 4.2 innings pitched for an 11.52 earned run average.
Hitters don’t get any cheaper than Walls today, and he should exceed the implied value of his projections. The Rays infielder leads out Points/Salary projections while sitting amongst the best in Projected Plus/Minus. As such, he’s our preferred DraftKings bargain on the main slate.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Mitch Garver ($2,400): Catcher, Texas Rangers
Seemingly every time Spenser Watkins toes the rubber, an opposing player is projected to exceed expectations. Today, that person is Texas Rangers catcher Mitch Garver.
Garver has been one of the best hitters in the American League over the past seven days. The former Silver Slugger has a .706 slugging percentage over that time frame, tallying five hits, including one double and two home runs. That’s resulted in four runs scored and batted in, ranking second on the Rangers in both categories.
Ongoing success is supported analytically, as Garver remains below expected totals this season. The Rangers’ catcher remains below career averages in hard-hit and barrel percentages, implying that he should continue to work towards those benchmarks.
There’s a good chance that happens tonight against Watkins and the Orioles. The 29-year-old ranks in the bottom 6% of MLB pitchers in expected slugging percentage, expected earned run average, and average exit velocity, helping Garver reach his fantasy potential on tonight’s main slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($10,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
People are finally starting to take notice of Aaron Nola again, and rightfully so. The Phillies ace has elevated himself back into the Cy Young conversation, and a meeting against the Washington Nationals should only bolster his case.
Nola is dazzling with 1.2 walks per nine innings, resulting in a league-leading 8.36 strikeout to walk ratio, but that’s just the surface of his accomplishments.
The former Cy Young Award finalist’s 29.1% strikeout rate ranks in the 85th percentile, with Nola inducing a 21.6% whiff rate on his fastball, 27.5% on his changeup, and a whopping 39.6% mark on his curveball. That’s in addition to his sinker and cutter, which he mixes in to keep batters completely off guard.
That mix will be useful in keeping a sub-optimal Nats’ batting order in check. Washington ranks in the bottom half of the league in on-base plus slugging percentage, putting up the fifth-fewest homers and runs scored this season. Moreover, the Nationals are coming off a three-hit, six-strikeout performance and have dropped five straight decisions coming into tonight’s NL East battle. They’ve also been without Juan Soto for the past two days, making an already weak lineup even weaker.
According to THE BAT X modeling, Nola is the premier pitching option on both slates, leading median and ceiling projections. Nola should end the night with the most fantasy points on the board.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
It might sound a little crazy when you say it out loud, but Aaron Judge hasn’t hit a home run in five games, which is tied for his second-longest stretch without a homer this season. The New York Yankees slugger hasn’t gone more than six games without a dinger this year. That’s bad news for Mitch Keller, as Judge should get off the schneid on Wednesday.
No other hitter is doing what Judge is doing this season. The Yankees’ right fielder ranks in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage, barrel percentage, and expected weighted on-base average. Judge has translated that to an MLB-best 29 long balls and 64 runs, adding 60 runs batted in and 12 doubles.
The three-time All-Star is feasting off fastballs, with a mind-numbing .862 expected slugging percentage off heaters. That spells trouble for Keller, who tosses his mid-90s four-seamer nearly 40.0% of the time.
Tonight could be disastrous for Keller, benefitting DFS players who roster Judge at a reasonable salary on FanDuel. The MVP favorite ranks among the elite batters on THE BAT X projections, which is validated by our in-house calculations.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
For the sixth time in ten games, the Dodgers get to tee off on Rockies pitching. Early returns have been good, and once again, LA is our top stacking option.
The top half of the Dodgers’ batting order is loaded with talented hitters, none more so than leadoff hitter Mookie Betts. The former MVP leads the team in on-base plus slugging percentage, home runs, and runs scored, making him a mainstay of any Dodgers’ combination.
Betts’ ability to get on base has led to some gaudy RBI totals from Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. LA’s two and three hitters have combined for 109 runs batted in this season while cashing 95 times and swatting 21 long balls.
Will Smith and Max Muncy round out the projected top five, batting fourth and fifth, respectively. Smith has been one of the best hitters on the team over the past month, compiling a .895 on-base plus slugging percentage while sending seven balls into the bleachers. Muncy is also finding his footing at the plate, establishing a .786 slugging percentage over the past seven days, with three of his four hits going for extra bases, including two home runs.
Based on our projections, there’s no team with a higher fantasy ceiling on tonight’s slate. We’ve highlighted the highest-rated lineup by taking the first five in the Dodgers’ order.
