The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Bobby Dalbec ($2,600): First/Third Baseman, Boston Red Sox
For most of this season, Boston Red Sox corner infielder Bobby Dalbec has been an all-or-nothing kind of guy. On Thursday against the Guardians, we expect him to deliver another top performance.
It’s been a curious streak for the former fourth-round pick, as Dalbec has just six hits over his past nine games, which have been spread across three multi-hit outings. More impressively, four of those knocks have been long balls, including both hits last night, contributing to his five RBIs.
Dalbec and the Red Sox face Triston McKenzie on Thursday, who is due for a letdown start. McKenzie has given up a lot of hard contact, with a 41.3% hard-hit rate and 10.5 barrel rate, both of which rank in the 22nd percentile or worse this season. Nevertheless, he has allowed just one earned run over his past four starts.
McKenzie is operating above sustainable levels, and Fenway Park is an unforgiving environment. Dalbec should get the best of him as he continues his recent uptick in production. The Red Sox’s slugger is our top bargain option, ranking among the elite hitters in our DK Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus metrics.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Max Muncy ($2,400): Second/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers
This has been one of the worst seasons on record for Max Muncy. The Dodgers infielder has a forgettable .612 on-base plus slugging percentage, his worst benchmark in a full season in the majors. However, Muncy’s underlying metrics suggest that he’s a progression candidate, and we’re expecting him to build some offensive momentum against the Rockies.
Muncy’s dip in production has come despite ongoing success analytically. This season, the two-time All-Star has a 40.7% hard-hit rate and a 12.1% barrel rate, which aren’t too far off his respective career averages of 42.2% and 13.1%. Still, his slugging percentage has nosedived to .304, a substantial deviation from his seven-year benchmark of .472. There’s only one direction for Muncy to go, and that’s up.
Coors Field has the most hitter-friendly park in the MLB, and Muncy should deliver against Jose Urena and his .454 expected slugging percentage. We’ve keyed in on the Dodgers’ hitter as our favorite bargain play on FanDuel slates.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($8,900 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
Coming out of the All-Star break, the Texas Rangers have been one of the worst hitting teams in the MLB. That should allow reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani to bounce back from his rough showing last time out. He shined for six innings, but the Braves got to him for six runs in his final frame.
The dual-threat has dazzled off the bump, striking out a career-best 12.9 per nine innings with a 2.49 FIP. Ohtani adds a lot of fantasy value with his strikeout metrics, which is illustrated over his past few outings. The Los Angeles Angels ace has struck out 10 or more across five straight starts, with a mammoth 15.5 punchouts per nine innings.
Of course, those strikeout metrics complement many other advanced metrics, supporting that Ohtani is the best pitcher available tonight. He rates in the top 10% of MLB pitchers in expected batting average and expected slugging percentage, and he ranks in the top 5% in whiff rate and expected earned run average.
The Rangers have a .698 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week, ranking 20th in the majors. Moreover, they sit in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, which should allow Ohtani to regain his MVP form. The two-time All-Star is our median and ceiling projection leader, making Ohtani our favorite play on the mound.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
MVP candidate Jose Ramirez got off to a terrible start this month but is starting to find his footing at the plate. The Guardians third baseman has hits in seven of his past nine outings, totaling 10 hits, two doubles, two homers, and nine RBIs. He’s projected to keep the good times rolling against the Red Sox.
Ramirez is disciplined at the plate, sitting in the 99th percentile in strikeout and whiff percentages, helping him deliver a .922 on-base plus slugging percentage. Still, the three-time Silver Slugger is well short of that this month, posting a .741 mark through 93 plate appearances. We’re expecting further progression from Ramirez over his coming sample as he works his way back up towards his season average.
There’s a good chance Ramirez’s recent momentum carries into tonight’s battle against Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox. Crawford rates in the bottom half of the league with a .406 expected slugging percentage and a 7.9% barrel rate. The 26-year-old has been worse at home this season, allowing 1.52 home runs per nine innings at Fenway compared to just 0.45 on the road.
THE BAT X modeling projects Ramirez as a top fantasy option on tonight’s slate, putting him on the elite end of our median and ceiling projections. That’s validated by the FantasyLabs projections, which also rate the Guardians’ slugger as a preeminent batter.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Coors Field is a volatile place to pitch, especially against a team as potent as LA. Their top-rated stack features the one through four hitters and Muncy, who is projected to bat sixth.
Arguably, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have been their best hitters this season, and that’s reflected over their recent performances. Betts is slugging .577 since the All-Star break, with Freeman close behind at .524. Consequently, the hitters have combined for five runs batted in and eight runs scored over the last week.
Similarly, Trea Turner has had productive at-bats over the past week, establishing a .880 on-base plus slugging percentage, albeit with just one run batted in and scored. Turner is in the meaty part of the Dodgers’ lineup and has production metrics that warrant more substantive output.
Will Smith rounds out the top four, and although he’s struggled lately, he remains a top hitting option. Smith sits in the top 12% of major league hitters in expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average and is due for a big fantasy effort.
Tonight is an ideal spot for Smith and the Dodgers to have a breakout performance.
