The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Miguel Cabrera ($2,300): First Baseman, Detroit Tigers
Father Time was the only factor that could have slowed Miguel Cabrera down. Still, the future Hall of Famer has a few noteworthy metrics worth considering ahead of Thursday’s contest against the Athletics.
The Tigers’ first baseman can still put a charge into the ball, ranking in the 64th percentile in average exit velocity while ranking in the top half of the league in batting average. Cabrera’s currently hitting at a .287 rate, which is only marginally off his career average of .310.
Moreover, Cabrera has enjoyed much more success against southpaws this season, benefitting him today against the A’s Zach Logue. Miggy has .371 slugging and .427 on-base percentages versus lefties, compared to .338 and .286 against righties. Additionally, Logue has been hit hard this season, ranking among the worst 1% of MLB pitchers in expected slugging percentage with a .543 mark.
In reconciling Cabrera’s splits against Logues struggles, it’s evident that the 38-year-old is an undervalued fantasy asset on Thursday’s slate. That’s reflected in THE BAT X projections, ranking him as the top value play on the early slate.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Brandon Belt ($2,500): First Baseman, San Francisco Giants
Brandon Belt remains an offensive catalyst for the San Francisco Giants, ranking fifth on the team in home runs and eighth in runs scored despite playing in only 52 games. Those standard stats are complemented by some elite advanced metrics, making Belt a top bargain play against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Belt continues to get the barrel to the ball, with his 15.7% barrel rate putting him in the 94th percentile of MLB hitters. That’s contributed to an expected slugging percentage of .484, ranking in the top 16%. That said, there’s room to grow for Belt, who remains shy of his expected totals, posting a .426 slugging percentage through 200 plate appearances.
Dodgers’ probable starter Mitch White could facilitate that anticipated progression on Thursday. White ranks in the league’s bottom half in expected slugging percentage, barrel rate, and expected earned run average. The 27-year-old is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up ten hits, six earned runs, and two dingers in 5.0 innings pitched.
Belt and the Giants can add to White’s misery when baseball returns to action on Thursday. According to our projections, San Fran’s first baseman should exceed his implied value and rates as the top Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary option.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tarik Skubal ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics aren’t scaring any pitchers these days, and that’s good news for Tarik Skubal. Oakland has the worst on-base plus slugging percentage in the majors, scoring the second-fewest runs and dingers through the first half of the season. In tandem with Skubal’s top-rated analytics, the Tigers’ probable starter is our ceiling projection leader on today’s slate.
Skubal keeps hitters out of rhythm with a nasty five-pitch mix. The Seattle University product throws a slider-fastball combination, turning to the off-speed pitch more frequently than the heater while saving his changeup as his put-away pitch. Altogether, Skubal’s repertoire induces a whiff percentage that ranks in the 57th percentile of MLB pitchers, with his changeup leading the way with a whiff rate of 45.8%.
However, the Tigers’ ace has been even more effective at limiting hard contact. Skubal has a 6.0% barrel rate and a .372 expected slugging percentage, contributing to a 3.36 expected earned run average. Compared to his actual earned run average of 4.11, we should see a progression from Skubal over his coming games. That starts Thursday against the Athletics, as Skubal rates as the top pitching option.
Hitter
Trea Turner ($5,600 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles has put together one of the most potent lineups in the bigs, and Trea Turner has been a centerpiece of their success. The Dodgers’ shortstop is the preeminent fantasy option and leads the way into tonight’s NL West matchup.
Turner has the third-best on-base plus slugging percentage on the Dodgers, thanks to his 14 home runs and 38 extra-base hits. The former first-round pick has been a mainstay in the top third of the batting order, helping him drive in the most runs on the team with 68.
More importantly, Turner’s analytics suggest that sustained production is expected. Through 398 plate appearances, Turner ranks in the 94th percentile in expected batting average and the 82nd percentile in expected slugging percentile. Furthermore, Turner has increased his productivity in July, with seven of his 13 hits going for extra bags, resulting in a .525 slugging percentage and 12 runs batted in.
The Dodgers’ team success starts with the top half of their batting order, and Turner has been the model of achievement. He is THE BAT X leader in median and ceiling projections, making Turner an excellent target on either platform.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
As noted, Turner is a premier fantasy option tonight; however, he’s also part of a Dodgers stack that rates better than any other combination.
Mookie Betts is in the conversation for NL MVP, and he’s got the stats to back it up. The four-time Silver Slugger is LA’s pace-setter in homers and runs scored, sitting second in on-base plus slugging percentage. He’s been the Dodgers’ leadoff man all season and an integral part of their stack tonight.
Behind him, we’ll find Turner and Freddie Freeman, who has emerged as an MVP candidate in his own right. Since June 22, Freeman has .436 on-base and .680 slugging percentages, swatting seven long balls and driving in 19.
Justin Turner is doing his best to keep pace with Freeman, putting up a 1.012 on-base plus slugging percentage with 17 runs batted in and four dingers. Projected to bat third and fifth, Freeman and Turner are staples of any Dodgers’ stack.
Lastly, Will Smith has resided in the cleanup spot for the better part of July and will have plenty of opportunities to improve off his recent uptick in production. Smith is tied for second on the team with 14 homers this season, with five coming over the last 30 days. That’s part of his .575 slugging percentage, which ranks second on the team over that span.
The Dodgers spent their All-Star break resting at home and will be ready to deliver when action resumes Thursday. They are the top stacking pick, as per our projections.
