The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Victor Reyes ($2,300): Outfielder, Detroit Tigers
A quad injury has limited Victory Reyes to just 113 plate appearances so far this season; however, he’s been effective in his restricted played time. The Tigers outfielder is also riding a heater through the early part of July, which should continue against the Guardians on Thursday.
In 11 games, Reyes is delivering a .455 slugging percentage, including three doubles and one home run, elevating his season-long average to .389. Still, that’s short of his expected mark of .464, implying that further progress is anticipated.
The 27-year-old is having a career year, setting benchmarks in hard-hit percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and expected slugging percentage, which should continue against Guardians’ probable starter Triston McKenzie. McKenzie ranks in the 4th percentile in average exit velocity, 7th percentile in barrel rate, and 14th percentile in expected slugging percentage.
Reyes is the top bargain available on DraftKings tonight, leading THE BAT X algorithm in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. His top end puts him on the edge of the elite fantasy producers, but Reyes comes at a fraction of the cost.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Max Kepler ($2,700): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Any time you can get a cleanup hitter at $2,700, it’s probably worth taking. That’s particularly true tonight on FanDuel, where you can snag Twins slugger Max Kepler at an exceptional price.
Kepler has been a top-producing batter at the front end of the Twins lineup. The left-handed batter ranks third on the team in runs batted in and fourth in runs scored, complementing his run production with a power swing that has resulted in 23 extra-base hits, including nine homers.
Moreover, Kepler has a bevy of elite advanced metrics supporting ongoing success. He ranks in the top 10% of major league hitters in expected weighted on-base average and walk percentage while sitting in the 78th percentile in expected slugging percentage.
Kepler’s elite fantasy ceiling is reflected in our projections, putting him as the number one bargain option on tonight’s slate. Like Reyes on DraftKings, the Twins’ outfielder leads Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, with Kepler forecasting a higher fantasy ceiling. That makes him our favorite bargain play on FanDuel slates.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Carlos Rodon ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
To quote the delivery guy from Big Daddy, Carlos Rodon and the Giants go together like lamb and tuna fish. The All-Star snub ranks third in the National League in strikeouts and seventh in earned run average and wins. More importantly, he’s THE BAT X’s preferred pitching option on tonight’s docket.
Rodon is thriving with the Giants, backing up his traditional metrics with elite analytics. The former third-overall pick ranks in the 86th percentile or better in strikeout percentage, barrel percentage, and expected earned run average.
Part of that success relates to his dominance at Oracle Park, where Rodon is a pristine 4-1 with a 2.08 earned run average. He’s dealing his best stuff at home, with Rodon compiling 56 punchouts in 39.0 innings for a 12.9 K/9 rate. That’s expected to continue tonight vs. the Brewers, who have accumulated the fifth-most strikeouts this season.
According to our model, Rodon has the highest median and ceiling projections on both platforms. As such, he’s the pitcher you want in your lineup on this evening’s main slates.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
On Thursday, Anibal Sanchez returns to the MLB after a two-year hiatus. However, we may have to start calling him the lunch lady the way he serves up taters. The Nationals pitcher had a meaty 6.63 earned run average, allowing 1.66 walks and hits per inning pitched the last time he toed the rubber in the bigs. That benefits Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Braves on Thursday night.
Acuna Jr. is riding a modest three-game hitting streak and remains a first-class fantasy option. The two-time Silver Slugger has a 49.1% hard-hit rate and 15.1% barrel percentage, ranking in the top 9% of MLB batters. Additionally, he remains short of his career average in both categories, suggesting that we could see more productive plate appearances from the former Rookie of the Year.
In his last season with the Nationals, Sanchez gave up a .481 expected slugging percentage and 9.4% barrel rate, resulting in 1.8 home runs per nine innings. It’s unlikely he shakes that as he pitches against premier talent for the first time in nearly two years.
We’re expecting more of the same from Acuna Jr. tonight against the Nats, and that’s reflected in THE BAT X algorithm. The Braves’ slugger tops the median and ceiling projections while featuring prominently in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Acuna Jr. is just one piece of the Braves puzzle that rates as our top stacking option tonight against the Nats. Surrounding him next to the top four batters in Atlanta’s order results in the highest-projected fantasy total.
Arguably, Austin Riley has been the Braves’ best hitter this season, leading the team in on-base plus slugging percentage, home runs, and runs batted in; but there are a few hitters who would give Riley a run for his money.
Matt Olson has the most extra-base hits of anyone on the team, including 15 home runs, driving in 52 and coming around to score 40.
Similarly, there’s an argument to be made that Dansby Swanson has been the best on the team. The former first-overall selection ranks first in hits and runs scored, sitting second in on-base plus slugging percentage and runs batted in.
Marcell Ozuna rounds out the top five and is in the conversation as the Braves’ top hitter. He ranks fourth on the team in on-base plus slugging percentage and runs batted in while recording the second-most runs and round-trippers.
No other team compares to the Braves tonight, and stacking the top five hitters is the best combination available.
