The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Zac Gallen ($7,900): Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
This bargain play takes advantage of the struggling Pirates’ lineup. Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in batting average and near the top in strikeouts.
Tonight, Gallen is a beneficiary of this plus matchup at an affordable price tag. On the year, Gallen is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 20 starts. He gives up a .279 wOBA and 32.2 sweet spot percentage, both better than league averages.
The Pirates have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate, and Gallen has had three positive Plus/Minus games in a row. Expect a fourth on Monday.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Josh Rojas ($3,000): Third Baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rojas had a strong series over the weekend against the Rockies with 12.50 and 25.20 FanDuel point games.
The under-the-radar third baseman is batting .271 on the year, and he’s added points on the bases with 13 swipes. He has a +2.36 Plus/Minus over the last month and is still affordable to fit into lineups.
Rojas and the Diamondbacks face Pirates’ right-hander Tyler Beede tonight in Arizona. Beede is making his first start of the season and has a 4.66 ERA without a decision in six appearances.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Blake Snell ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
The veteran lefty is 4-5 with a 4.16 ERA in 13 starts this season. Those numbers may not jump off the page as a strong fantasy play, but Snell has shown ceiling potential with five 20+ DraftKings point performances in his last six starts, including two games over 30.
Snell hasn’t lost a game since June 25 and has double-digit strikeout potential. Ultimately, he has excellent upside if he can limit the walks and pitch count.
Snell faces a Giants team with one of the lower implied run totals on the slate tonight.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) at Seattle Mariners
To pay up or not to pay up for Judge?
Judge is on a historic pace this season. He leads the majors with 43 home runs, 97 RBI, and a 1.058 OPS, among other stats. He may only have one home run so far in August but is batting .368 with a .500 OBP.
Even with lofty expectations, Judge has produced an insane +7.01 Plus/Minus over the last 10 games and +4.71 over the last month. At some point, he will begin to disappoint fantasy owners at these levels, but the potential reward is too high right now to stray away from him.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Mets. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.
After five games in four days against the Braves, the Mets extend their home stand tonight with a series against the Reds. The Mets have the highest implied run total on this short slate against right-hander Justin Dunn, who is making his first major league start of 2022. Dunn is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 25 career starts.
Florida alum Pete Alonso anchors the stack with 29 home runs and National League-leading 95 RBI. His salary is once again over $6,000 as he’s posted 10 double-digit DraftKings point totals in his last 15 games.
Francisco Lindor has excelled after the All-Star break as well. The shortstop has a +4.58 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and holds a .208 ISO against right-handers.
The trio of Mets outfielders in this stack begins with veteran Starling Marte. In his first season in New York, Marte made his second All-Star team and has an impressive +0.62 Plus/Minus on the season.
Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin round out the stack. Nimmo has four multi-hit games in his last eight outings, while Naquin has shown the potential for big games, including two homers against the Braves on August 4.
