The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,100): First Baseman, Kansas City Royals
The Royals don’t have more wins to show for their efforts, but they do get to boast about a moderately improved offense over the last couple of weeks. Part of their success relates to Vinnie Pasquantino, who has been a catalyst since joining the big league roster at the end of June.
Pasquantino has middle-of-the-road traditional metrics, although we’ve seen flashes of brilliance from the 24-year-old. Moreover, his advanced metrics suggest that bigger things are expected from Pasquantino, and he’s starting to heat up over his recent outings.
Pasquantino has hits in five of his last six games, including extra-base knocks in two straight. Still, the former 11th-round pick remains below his .455 expected slugging percentage and should continue progressing over the coming games. What’s been most impressive about his first foray into the bigs is his ability to get the barrel to the ball and make solid contact, as he’s delivered an 11.0% barrel percentage and 50.5% hard-hit rate in 129 plate appearances.
The left-handed batting Pasquantino also has the advantage Wednesday over right-hander Lance Lynn. All three of his home runs and six of his seven extra-base hits have come against righties, adding to Pasquantino’s value on tonight’s slate. The Royals’ first baseman is our favorite bargain option at DraftKings, leading THE BAT X Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary ratings.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Bryan De La Cruz ($2,100): Outfielder, Miami Marlins
Marlins outfielder Bryan De La Cruz is overdue for a breakout performance. Based on our modeling, we’re expecting that to come Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds. It helps that the Marlins get to tee off against Mike Minor, but several other factors suggest De La Cruz should be expected to perform.
The 25-year-old has some noteworthy hitting analytics, ranking in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate with an above-average 9.3% barrel percentage. Despite the impressive metrics, De La Cruz has just a .348 slugging percentage, well off his expected rate of .427.
As good as Lynn has been throughout his career, he’s clearly on the downside of his career. The 35-year-old ranks in the 28th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel percentage while sitting in the 16th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Consequently, Lynn is riding a 6.42 earned run average into the latter part of the season.
De La Cruz projects as an underrated fantasy option and ranks among the elite Points/Salary producers on Wednesday’s slate. Additionally, Lynn’s ineffectiveness should facilitate growth in De La Cruz’s standard stats.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have the unenviable task of trying to get to Gerrit Cole, something few opponents have been able to do at Yankee Stadium.
The Mariners rank in the bottom half of the league in on-base plus slugging percentage but the top half of the league in punch outs. That’s a bad combination against Cole, who ranks in the top 6% of MLB pitchers in strikeout percentage and top 17% of pitchers in expected weighted on-base average. Cole doesn’t hide behind any of his five pitches, inducing a 26.4% whiff rate or better on all of his offerings, putting him in the 93rd percentile across MLB pitchers.
All of those metrics are amplified at home, where Cole has posted a sparkling 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings and an 0.83 WHIP. Yet, we would expect the five-time All-Star to have more than just four wins at home, suggesting that more wins should be on the horizon.
According to THE BAT X algorithm, Cole is the best available on today’s slates. The Yankees’ ace leads median and ceiling projections on both platforms and could exceed expectations against an M’s side that has 33 strikeouts over their past four games.
Hitter
Juan Soto ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
It was quite the reversal of fortunes for Juan Soto. The two-time Silver Slugger went from being the centerpiece of a rebuilding Nationals roster to the top of a talented Padres lineup expected to compete for a championship this year. It all starts today when the Friars host Chad Kuhl and the Colorado Rockies.
Soto has fallen off his MVP-caliber stats from the past two seasons but should make an immediate impact with his new squad. The right fielder sits in the 99th percentile in expected weighted on-base average and chase rate, while ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage. More importantly, Soto is insulated in the Padres lineup, giving him more opportunities to flourish.
Kuhl’s 6-6 record is better than his analytics imply. The former ninth-round selection ranks in the 16th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and strikeout rate. He faces a Padres’ order littered with skill, and Soto is near the top of nearly every hitting category on the team.
Soto is among our projection leaders and is the marquee batter worth rostering on tonight’s slates.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Houston Astros. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
You can include the Astros in the aforementioned “teams that got better category.” One of their newest acquisitions, Trey Mancini, is expected to make his debut tonight and factors into one of the top stacks available.
Mancini is projected to slot in behind Jose Altuve, giving Houston a formidable one-two punch atop their order. Mancini brings above-average slugging metrics with him, which should lead to more productive at-bats in a more potent Astros lineup. Altuve continues to produce, ranking second on the team in on-base plus slugging percentage.
Of course, Altuve plays second fiddle to Yordan Alvarez, who leads the majors in OPS and is the Astros’ pacesetter in every offensive category other than doubles.
That leaves Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman to round out the top five. The four and five hitters don’t let anything slip past Alvarez, ranking third and second on the Stros in RBIs.
The Astros are a top stacking option and should reach their fantasy ceiling against Rich Hill and the Boston Red Sox.
