The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Vincent Pasquantino ($2,100): First Baseman, Kansas City Royals
There are some batters who, no matter how hard they hit the ball, are just simply unlucky. Vincent Pasquantino fits that line perfectly, even though he only has 121 plate appearances in his rookie season. Pasquantino averaged a .280 ISO in the minor leagues and never had a season below .250. Batting in the major leagues has been more difficult as he has a .105 ISO, but he has an absurd 51.2% hard-hit rate. Pasquantino has an xwOBA of .368 and an xSLG of .480. With an 11.6% barrel percentage and an average exit velocity of 92.5 MPH, it is only a matter of time before he starts displaying some power.
The best part is Pasquantino is basically free on DraftKings and has a 94% Bargain Rating. Don’t expect many RBI as the Royals flat-out stink, but he has the platoon advantage once again against White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito. Through 18 starts, Giolito has struggled with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. His numbers have drastically fallen since his past three strong seasons. Giolito has also been abysmal at home, allowing a 6.28 ERA and a .377 wOBA.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
A.J. Pollock ($2,300): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
Sticking in the same game with our FanDuel value, A.J. Pollock is projected to bat No. 3 for the White Sox tonight. Still firmly in the playoff race, the White Sox are looking to bounce back after only putting up one run last night. In his first season with the White Sox, the veteran outfielder is slowly coming around after a putrid start. In over 300 plate appearances, Pollock has a career-low .116 ISO and .279 wOBA. This is his first season below a .330 wOBA in his last five seasons. However, Pollock has at least one hit in six of his previous seven games and eight RBI during that time.
Pollock will draw a matchup with Royals’ starting pitcher Brad Keller, who leads the team with five wins and a 4.18 ERA. Keller has yet to have a season above a 20% strikeout rate, so going down without making contact shouldn’t be an issue. Keep an eye on Keller as he was supposed to pitch yesterday but got scratched. With today being the trade deadline, it’s possible that Keller could be on the move. Whether it is Keller or someone else in this terrible Royals rotation, Pollock is way too cheap on FanDuel in this matchup.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($10,100 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Jacob deGrom — who hasn’t pitched all season — is $200 more expensive than Corbin Burnes on DraftKings. That feels like a crime. To no surprise, Burnes has the highest projected ownership among the pitchers on this slate as he gets a cupcake matchup against the Pirates on the road. Burnes has been lethal lately, capturing double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four games. His 32.8% strikeout rate is actually lower than what it has been the past two seasons, just showing how dominant Burnes has been. Pair that with a career-best 0.92 WHIP, and he’s arguably the top pitcher in baseball.
The Pirates not only have scored the third-fewest amount of runs this season, but they also rank second in team strikeout rate. They are implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs as they continue to bring up the rear in the NL Central. The best part is they have seemingly mailed it in this season, losing seven straight games. Burnes should be able to mow through this lineup without any issues. He is a -270 favorite, which is the second-best on the slate. All signs point to another double-digit strikeout performance and a big fantasy score for the Brewers ace.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
It is nearly impossible not to have Aaron Judge in your cash-game lineup right now. He can’t stop hitting bombs. The Yankees were the first team to 70 wins, and a large part of that has to do with the MVP-type performances from Judge. He leads the team and league in nearly every hitting statistic. Since the All-Star Break, Judge has 10 home runs and 24 RBI in 12 games. Judge is the most expensive hitter on the slate, and for a good reason. Over his last 11 games, Judge is averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game and has only two games below 19 points.
It’s not only Judge; this Yankees lineup is lethal. They lead the league in ISO, home runs, and runs scored, making this an arduous task for second-year Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert. He has an impressive 10-6 record and leads the Mariners with a 2.78 ERA and a 0.95 HR/9. However, he’s yet to face the Yankees. The young right-hander has good stuff, but it’s hard to go against how well Judge is hitting the ball right now. He’s addicted to home runs.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the New York Mets. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
As of this morning, the New York Mets are implied for 5.2 runs, which is the second-highest amount on the slate. They have won seven-straight games as they continue to lead the NL East.
During that win streak, the Mets have averaged 6.1 runs per game. They continue to rank inside the top five in runs scored and wRC+, and they stand out as THE BAT’s top stack tonight.
Brandon Nimmo is coming off a four-hit performance against the Nationals last night, including one double. He continues to serve as a fantastic leadoff hitter with his career-low 16.9% strikeout rate. Nimmo’s wOBA is over .340 for the sixth-straight season.
Starling Marte is the most expensive batter in this Mets stack, but it is deserving. He leads the team in hitting and is the only batter with an average above .300 this season. In his first season with the Mets, Marte has a respectable .173 ISO and a .358 wOBA.
Francisco Lindor was one of two Mets players who hit a home run last night, and it was his second in the previous three games. Lindor has shown consistency with at least one hit in 19 of his previous 20 games. He has also been destroying right-handed pitching this season. Lindor has a .354 wOBA and a .206 ISO versus right-handers compared to a .310 wOBA and a .161 ISO versus left-handed pitchers.
In the clean-up spot is Peter Alonso — aka the Polar Bear — who leads the Mets in home runs for the fourth-straight season. Alonso also leads the team in RBI and hits as his .269 ISO continues to rise. He isn’t quite on an Aaron Judge pace, but Alonso is a colossal threat whenever he’s at the plate.
You can go in a few different directions to finish this stack, but Jeff McNeil will get the platoon advantage and covers a second base position, which can be tough to find. McNeil is a contact hitter with a meager 12.5% strikeout rate. Don’t expect much power, but McNeil has at least two hits in his last three games and is batting nearly .300 this season.
Nationals right-hander Cory Abbott will make his first start of the season, and he has only appeared in three games thus far. However, he’ll serve as an opener after appearing in Sunday’s contest. That means he’ll give way quickly to a Nationals bullpen with the second-worst FIP and ranks in the bottom seven in HR/9 and ERA. Regardless of who is on the mound for the Nationals tonight, this Mets stack is in a great spot to take advantage.
