The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Victor Reyes ($2,000): Outfielder, Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers have scored 11 runs in taking two straight against the Cleveland Guardians. Outfielder Victor Reyes has gotten in on the action, recording four hits, two runs batted in, and one run scored, and it should continue his hot hitting streak against Cal Quantrill Wednesday.
A leg injury has forced Reyes to miss a big chunk of the season, but the 27-year-old has been effective since returning in the middle of June. Reyes is delivering above-average metrics in hard-hit and sweet spot percentages while featuring prominently at the top of the Tigers’ batting order. Moreover, he remains below his expected slugging percentage, implying he’s a progression candidate over his coming sample.
He’ll have a chance to proliferate against Guardians’ probable pitcher Cal Quantrill, who has several questionable metrics. Quantrill ranks in the 20th percentile in slugging percentage and 11th percentile in strikeout percentage, inducing a 4.42 expected earned run average placing him among the worst 27% of MLB pitchers.
Based on the Derek Carty Projections in THE BAT X, Reyes is an undervalued fantasy option on DraftKings tonight. The veteran outfielder is expected to produce above his implied level as a $2,000 option and is among the elite in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Marcus Semien ($2,400): Second Baseman, Texas Rangers
It hasn’t been a banner year offensively for Marcus Semien and the Texas Rangers, but we’re anticipating growth from the second baseman, starting tonight against the Oakland Athletics.
Semien has just two hits over his last four games but should see a reversal of fortunes against Adam Oller tonight. The Oakland Athletics righty pitches to contact and does so poorly, giving Semien a chance to improve on his .403 slugging percentage.
Although contact has been limited, the reigning Silver Slugger has been finding his power swing recently, with three of his past six hits going for home runs. Still, Semien remains short of his career slugging average and has fallen further off the pace in August, suggesting that more effective offensive performances are forthcoming.
Semien was hugely productive in June and July but faltered somewhat in August. Considering the pitching matchup and his current form, he’s a low-cost target for an impact performance tonight against the A’s.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Carlos Rodon ($10,800 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Being left off the NL All-Star roster may have pushed Carlos Rodon to improve off his already Cy Young-caliber metrics. What we’re left with is an unstoppable force on the mound that continues to deliver exception efforts. That’s projected to continue Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Rodon has tormented opposing batters, delivering some top-tier analytics this season. The two-time All-Star ranks in the top 10% of pitchers in strikeout rate, sitting batters down at a 31.1% rate. Consequently, his expected batting average and slugging percentage are resting in the 85th percentile, with his expected earned run average ranking in the 89th.
More impressively, the Giants’ southpaw is getting results. Rodon has allowed just 22 hits and four walks in 29.1 innings pitched post-All-Star break, decreasing his walks and hits per inning pitched to 0.89. Further, his strikeouts per nine innings is up slightly to 1.26.
Although his earned run average has increased slightly over that stretch, Rodon’s underlying metrics support that he’s pitching better over the past few weeks. That means that more effective outings are anticipated, increasing his fantasy value.
That’s reflected in THE BAT X projections, making him the top pitching option available on both platforms against the D-Backs.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Over the last month, Aaron Judge has been the lone bright spot for the New York Yankees. The former AL Leaders have suffered as a whole, dropping 17 of their last 25 games, but that hasn’t come at the expense of Judge’s stats, as the Yankees’ outfielder continues on his MVP-worthy campaign.
Analytically, there’s nobody superior to Judge. The former Rookie of the Year ranks in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage, expected weight on-base average, and average exit velocity, with a modest 98th percentile rating in expected batting average.
Those analytics have yielded premier metrics, with Judge leading the MLB in slugging percentage, home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored. He hasn’t missed a beat during the Yankees’ cold snap, with four of his past seven hits going for extra bases, including three long balls.
Judge and the Yankees get to tee off against former teammate Corey Kluber, who has struggled over his last two outings, giving up ten earned runs across 11.2 innings pitched.
That lends itself to another MVP-quality performance from Judge, as he leads our median and ceiling projections on tonight’s slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT X using median projections belongs to the Houston Astros. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Several Astros rank highly among the median and ceiling projections, and collectively, they are the best stacking option available on the main slate tonight.
Age and controversy hasn’t slowed Jose Altuve down at the top of the Astros’ order, as the diminutive second baseman ranks second on the team with a .867 on-base plus slugging percentage and is the pacesetter with 106 hits.
He’s followed by Yuli Gurriel, who has recorded eight hits over his last six games, with one run scored and batted in. Both players will have more chances to score with Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman projected to bat behind them.
For most of the season, Alvarez led the majors in on-base plus slugging percentage. Although he’s given up the lead more recently, he’s still smashing the ball to the tune of a .616 slugging percentage with 75 runs driven in and 31 home runs, all of which puts him near the top of the MLB stats sheet. Bregman deserves some credit, too, ranking third on the team in RBIs and second in runs.
We can’t forget about Kyle Tucker, who rounds out the top five and has been one of the biggest Astros contributors this season. Tucker leads the team in runs batted in, with nine of those coming over the past seven days.
The Astros have been lethal all season, moving into the top spot in the American League standings. Micahel Kopech and the Chicago White Sox will offer little resistance tonight.
