The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Alex Cobb ($7,000): Pitcher, San Francisco Giants
Looking for a quality starter further down the salary list? Cobb is a worthwhile option tonight at home against the Diamondbacks.
Cobb’s numbers are lackluster in his 11th big league season, with a 3-6 record and 4.15 ERA. But lately, he has put together four positive Plus/Minus results in his last five starts, including 11 strikeouts against the Cubs on July 29.
Bargain pitchers will always have some risk, but Cobb could provide some salary flexibility to get one more big hitter in your lineup.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Patrick Wisdom ($2,800): Third Baseman, Chicago Cubs
Make a wise decision and throw Wisdom at the end of your lineups tonight in Washington. He may lead the national league in strikeouts this season, but that hit-or-miss approach has also produced some big fantasy totals.
Wisdom has had five 18+ point FanDuel performances since July 28. Why is his salary so low? He also has 11 games with less than five points in that span.
If you’re looking for a lottery ticket in a tournament lineup, Wisdom is a high-upside dart throw.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($10,100 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The projections give Cole a massive ceiling tonight, far and away the highest on the slate. Vegas agrees, as the Rays have one of the lowest implied run totals against the Yankees ace.
Cole is 9-4 on the year with a 3.38 ERA and leads the American League with 178 strikeouts. His salary has dipped to its lowest point since mid-May with his recent summer drought. He threw seven scoreless innings in his last start, but before that, he had three straight negative Plus/Minus performances and gave up 14 earned runs in 18 innings of work.
The high ceiling potential is undoubtedly there for Cole as he’s scored over 30 DraftKings points on five occasions this season. If you can afford him in your lineup, he should put up strong results.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
His salary keeps creeping up, and his Plus/Minus continues to stay positive. At some point, Judge will become too expensive a risk in lineups, but that day is not today.
With a +3.35 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and his historic home run pace, Judge will be a high-ownership play again tonight facing Rays left-hander Ryan Yarbrough. Yarbrough is winless at 0-7 with a 5.08 ERA.
The stats are just incredible for the 30-year-old Yankee star. He has crushed left-handed pitching with a .438 wOBA, but he’s been even better against right-handers with a .440 wOBA.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Astros. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.
The Astros head to Chicago tonight for an early-week series with the White Sox. The implied run total is near the middle of the slate tonight against right-hander Johnny Cueto. Cueto is 4-5 on the season but has managed a solid 2.91 ERA without getting much run support from the White Sox.
Leading the stack in salary is Yordan Alvarez, who made his first career All-Star game this season. Alvarez is among the top 1% of hitters with a .428 wOBA and 61.2 hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant. Over the last 10 games, he struggled with a -2.59 Plus/Minus rating.
Perennial All-Star Jose Altuve is having another solid season for the Astros. He is batting .281 but is beginning to see some declines in average exit velocity and hard hit % compared to his career averages. It’s not yet time to steer away from him in lineups.
The hottest player in the stack, Alex Bregman has averaged 15.66 DraftKings points over the last six games. He blasted three home runs in that span and prefers right-handed pitching with a .365 wOBA and .191 ISO. He is a strong consideration against Cueto tonight, with or without a stack.
Kyle Tucker and Yulieski Gurriel round out tonight’s top stack. Tucker has also lit it up recently with a +4.66 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Gurriel has a low ceiling but could easily manage double-digit points with a low buy-in.
