The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lars Nootbaar ($2,000): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
As is typically the case, things got a little out of control at Coors Field last night. However, it was the Rockies that did most of the damage. We’re projecting the Cardinals to return the favor today, and outfielder Lars Nootbaar is an undervalued fantasy option.
Nootbaar has been filling in for Juan Yepez in right field and is delivering some exceptional at-bats. The 24-year-old has hits in three straight games and nine of his past 12, including two doubles, a home run, and eight runs scored. Nootbaar’s success is validated in his analytics, as he’s putting up above-average metrics in some noteworthy categories. Through 154 plate appearances, Nootbaar has a 9.3% barrel rate and 36.1% sweet spot rating, which should facilitate more substantive production, particularly in the thin mountain air.
The Rockies are sending Kyle Freeland to the bump, who has given up eight earned runs across his last 10.0 innings pitched at home. As THE BAT X Points/Salary leader, Nootbaar should add to those woes tonight.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Jake McCarthy ($2,200): Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
You’d have to be paying close attention to one of the worst teams in the National League to know who Jake McCarthy is. Still, McCarthy is worth considering tonight against the Pirates.
McCarthy is coming off a two-hit performance last night, driving in three and stealing a base. The University of Virginia product has played in the bigs intermittently since June but has delivered when called upon. He’s compiled 26 hits — nine of which have gone for extra bases — with eight runs batted in and 15 runs scored.
We’re anticipating sustained success from McCarthy tonight against Mitch Keller, who seemingly prefers to give up hard contact. Keller ranks in the 42nd percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and expected earned run average.
According to our projections, McCarthy should build off last night’s 22.5 fantasy point performance and exceed the implied value of his salary against the Pirates. The Diamondbacks outfielder is our Points/Salary leader on FanDuel while also featuring prominently in THE BAT X projected Plus/Minus.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Justin Verlander ($10,500 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
Some pitchers are worth the hype, and Justin Verlander is one of those guys. After missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery, the two-time Cy Young winner has returned as a preeminent pitcher, posting a league-best 1.73 earned run average and 224 ERA+.
Verlander’s strikeout metrics have taken a hit post-surgery, but he remains a leading Cy Young candidate. The 39-year-old ranks in the top 3% of pitchers in weighted on-base average, holding opponents to a .357 expected slugging percentage and .218 expected batting average.
Those efficiencies are reflected across Verlander’s past seven starts. The Astros’ ace hasn’t allowed more than one earned run per outing, totaling 53.2 innings pitched, four earned runs, and 32 hits. We’re projecting his fine form to continue Wednesday against the Rangers, who have been one of the worst hitting teams in the bigs over the last seven days. The Rangers have compiled a .659 on-base plus slugging percentage, striking out 41 times with just 18 runs batted in over that stretch.
Verlander is the pitcher to key in on tonight’s slate. The ageless wonder is our median and ceiling projection leader, and he also ranks among the leaders in projected Plus/Minus.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
Two-time Silver Slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. has fallen off his career pace this season, but his advanced metrics are not lacking. The Braves outfielder remains an analytics darling and should see meaningful progression to end the campaign.
We’ve seen substantial improvement from Acuna Jr. since the start of August. Across 34 plate appearances this month, the three-time All-Star has a .567 slugging percentage, including 12 hits, two doubles, and a home run. Still, his season-long .410 slugging percentage is below his expected mark of .491, suggesting his most productive at-bats are on the horizon.
Acuna Jr. ranks in the top 10% of MLB batters in hard-hit and expected slugging percentage, highlighting his elite fantasy ceiling. Those metrics will be hard to contain for Red Sox probable starter Nick Pivetta, who sits in the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate and eighth percentile in average exit velocity. Those struggles are plainly illustrated across his recent starts, with Pivetta giving up 28 earned runs over his past six outings.
This batter versus pitching matchup is vector quantities heading in opposite directions, leaving a substantive edge in rostering Acuna Jr. That’s reflected in our modeling, ranking the Braves’ outfielder as an elite fantasy option against Pivetta and the Red Sox.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Cardinals. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Without question, the Cardinals are the top stacking option, with several combinations featuring prominently in our lineup builder. We’re highlighting the highest-rated combination ahead of tonight’s NL battle against the Rockies.
Paul Goldschmidt is the centerpiece of the Cardinals’ offensive success, although Nolan Arenado is a close second. The duo is projected to bat third and fourth, respectively, and have combined for 153 runs batted in, 128 runs, and 48 home runs this season.
Goldschmidt and Arenado’s run-producing at-bats are facilitated by Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman, who have been fixtures atop the Cardinals’ order. Edman has come around to cash the second-most runs on the team this season, while Carlson has put up the third-best on-base plus slugging percentage among qualified hitters.
The stack is rounded out with the No. 6 hitter Tyler O’Neill, who sits fourth on the Cards in RBIs. He’s also added value on the basepaths with eight steals.
St. Louis has been one of the best offensive teams in the league this year, sitting top ten in slugging percentage and runs scored. They’re implied for a whopping 6.9 runs at Coors Field, so they’ll be tough to avoid.
