The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Miguel Vargas ($2,400): Second Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers
The top of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is loaded with top-tier talent, but don’t sleep on the bottom of the order, which is flooded with value. Among those is second baseman Miguel Vargas who is only $2,400. In his first game last night, Vargas had four plate appearances, and even though he failed to capture a hit, he drew two walks and scored a run.
Using a blended approach, Vargas ranks has a 92% Bargain Rating and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on this smaller five-game slate. THE BAT X projects Vargas to have a .436 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA in 455 plate appearances this season. There will be plenty of opportunities against Diamondbacks’ right-hander Merrill Kelly who has a record of 0-9 with a 5.87 ERA against the Dodgers in 12 career starts.
Kelly has lost seven consecutive starts in this matchup while allowing three or more earned runs in each game. He has given up two home runs in back-to-back against the Dodgers, so don’t be surprised if the Dodgers get to him early. Vargas is too cheap as the starting second baseman with Gavin Lux on the injured list.
Jake McCarthy ($3,300): Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected to bat third, Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy at $3,300, has a Bargain Rating of 92%. Despite an implied run total of 3.2 which is tied for the lowest on the slate, the Diamondbacks lineup has only one player priced above $4,000. Facing right-hander Dustin May, McCarthy is in a prime batting order spot to do some damage.
May has had his fair share of injuries, as he has only started 11 games in the last two seasons. Last year in six starts, May had a career-high 4.50 ERA with an 11% walk percentage. He also struggled pitching at home last season, as he allowed 11 earned runs in only 14 innings pitched with a .340 wOBA and a .377 slugging percentage allowed.
THE BAT projects McCarthy for a respectable .316 wOBA and a .138 ISO this season. Getting the platoon advantage and having his ownership projected under 10%, McCarthy looks like a strong value. Even as a -190 favorite, the Diamondbacks may give May trouble in the early innings.
They scored two runs in the first two innings last night before the wheels fell off.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Cristian Javier ($8,200 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
According to the blended FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections, Cristian Javier has the highest upside in his first start of the 2023 season. He is exceptionally priced on DraftKings at $8,200, which is resulting in a 79% Bargain Rating that is the highest among all of the pitchers on the slate. Javier has gotten better in each of his three seasons.
In 25 starts and 30 appearances, Javier had a 1.03 HR/9 and a 0.95 WHIP last season. His 33.2% strikeout rate was tied with Shohei Ohtani for the second-best rate among all pitchers. His upside remains sky-high against a White Sox who may not strike out at a high rate but were below average in runs scored and had the fifth-worst ISO last season.
Among the 10 teams on this slate, the White Sox have the second-worst wOBA as the Astros are a -150 favorite. Despite winning last night, the White Sox failed to score until the 8th inning. Expect a strong outing from Javier in this favorable spot.
Hitter
Yordan Alvarez ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
In his second full season with the Astros, Yordan Alvarez took a major leap forward as one of the best power hitters in the league. He ranked second behind Aaron Judge last year in both ISO and .wOBA. Alvarez picked up right where he left off last night, hitting a home run in the ninth inning as the Astros still fell short 3-2 against the White Sox.
This is a great matchup for Alvarez to go back-to-back games with a home run as Lance Lynn will take the mound for the White Sox. The 36-year-old right-hander struggled last season, allowing a career-high 1.41 HR/9 and a 38.7% hard-hit rate. Throughout his career, Lynn has specifically struggled against left-handed power batters, as he has a 1.48 WHIP and a 19.5% strikeout rate to left-handers compared to a 1.08 WHIP and a 27.8% strikeout rate against right-handers.
One of the most feared left-handed batters in the league facing up against an old right-handed pitcher who gave up 19 home runs in 21 innings pitched last year feels like a recipe for success. Alvarez has a massive ceiling projection tonight.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Robbie Ray ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Pairing Cristian Javier and Robbie Ray on DraftKings feels like a great combo tonight. Ray is slightly behind Xavier in our blended ceiling projections. In his first year with the Mariners, Ray had a 27.4% strikeout rate, and his hard-hit rate on batted balls dropped to a career-best 33.2%. On a weak pitching slate, the southpaw looks like our best pay-up option.
The Guardians present a difficult strikeout matchup, as they led the league last season with an 18.2% strikeout rate. However, they were tied for 29th in ISO and ranked 28th in walk percentage at 8.7%. Jose Ramirez will be the key batter for Ray to get out, but he has done a great job throughout his career, allowing Ramirez to go 1-for-9 against him. In fact, last season, Ray went 2-0 against the Guardians, allowing no earned runs and accumulating 10 total strikeouts.
Ray has a 6.45 strikeout projection, which is the second-highest on the slate. Pair that with the Guardians’ low 3.4 implied run total, and Ray looks poised to throw a gem in his first outing of the 2023 season.
Hitters
Mookie Betts ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
One of those many top tier talents at the top of the Dodgers lineup, as previously mentioned, is outfielder Mookie Betts. He is the most expensive batter on DraftKings but is reasonably priced on FanDuel, where he is drawing much more ownership. Betts failed to record a hit last night and accumulated three strikeouts. Expect a bounce-back performance tonight.
We discussed how Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly has had a tough time with the Dodgers in recent years, well he has specifically struggled to get Betts out. In 23 plate appearances, Betts has seven hits against Kelly with three home runs and only two strikeouts. He has a .739 slugging percentage and an OPS of 1.124. Those are pretty impressive numbers.
Betts has also recorded double-digit stolen bases in eight-straight seasons, and with the new rules, he may be in line for a big season swiping bags. He will get plenty of opportunities for stolen bases at the top of this loaded lineup.
Xavier Bogaerts ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Padres were another National League heavyweight that suffered a loss on Opening Day. They were outscored by the Rockies 7-2 last night but are -196 favorites to bounce back and get the victory tonight. In the loss, Xander Bogaerts was a bright spot as he went 3-for-4 with two doubles batting in the No. 4 spot in the Padres lineup.
Bogaerts is projected to bat lead-off against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland tonight. Freeland is a much better pitcher away from Coors Field but is still allowing a .321 wOBA throughout his career in road games. The Padres have the highest implied total on the slate at 4.5 runs, as Bogaerts is the best hitting shortstop option on the slate.
The Padres and Bogaerts, specifically, are going to be very popular on FanDuel. He currently has the highest projected ownership, which is deserving in such a great matchup. With incredible power hitters behind him, Bogaerts has a chance to lead the league in runs scored. He has very high projections for his first year with the Padres.
