The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Rowdy Tellez ($2,700): First Baseman, Pittsburgh Pirates
In his first season with the Pirates, first baseman Rowdy Tellez looks to start hot for his new squad tonight in Miami. The model loves him as a bargain option tonight against left-hander A.J. Puk.
Tellez has landed in the top 6% of max exit velocity each of the last five seasons. He blasted 35 home runs in 2022 with that power, but that number shrunk to 13 dingers last season in 106 games played. Tellez lifts his fantasy floor with a high walk rate but counters that with high chase and whiff tendencies that lead to empty strolls back to the dugout.
Puk finished last season’s campaign at 7-5 with a 3.97 ERA and 15 saves out of the Miami bullpen. All 142 of his major league appearances have come in relief as he makes his first big league start tonight. The Pirates may be an underdog, but Tellez is an interesting cheap flyer for DraftKings lineups.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
George Kirby ($9,700) vs. Boston Red Sox
With only eight games on the main slate, the high-upside options are limited. Seattle right-hander George Kirby stands out as both the highest price tag and highest ceiling potential on the slate.
The 26-year-old burst onto the scene the last two seasons with a 21-15 record and a 3.37 ERA overall. He limits free base runners with one of the lowest walk rates in the league. Using PitchIQ, Kirby showed consistency last season in facing both righties and lefties at the plate with low wOBA and high ground-ball rates against each.
Though Kirby does allow a high hard-hit rate, the Red Sox lineup may have difficulty exploiting that stat. The Red Sox have seven hitters in their lineup with at least a 23.0 K% and one of the lowest projected run totals on the slate. Expect Kirby to get off to a good start tonight on his 2024 campaign.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,300) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
What a crazy offseason for superstar Shohei Ohtani. He signs with the Dodgers as the highest-paid player in baseball history and then quickly finds himself in a quagmire of accusations over his translator and an illegal betting ring. We will see if the off-field environment impacts his on-field performance, but he certainly remains one of the most explosive players in the league.
Ohtani has 124 home runs over his last three seasons and managed his first .300 batting average season in 2023 (.304). He also finished with an incredible 1.066 OPS and .427 xwOBA last year.
So far, Ohtani has five hits in 13 at-bats in three real games this year, with one extra-base hit. Could his first fantasy boom game come today against St. Louis? Vegas seems to think so, with the Dodgers earning the highest implied run total on the slate.
The Dodgers face Cardinals’ lefty Zack Thompson. Thompson struggled last season to a 5-7 record with a 4.48 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in a mix of starts and bullpen work.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Logan Allen ($7,400) at Oakland Athletics
The aggregate model sees value in Logan Allen tonight on a small slate. The Cleveland left-hander has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with the 10th-highest pitching salary.
In his first major league season, Allen started 24 games for the Guardians and managed a 7-8 record with a 3.81 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. A control pitcher, Allen doesn’t light up the radar gun, but uses deceptive off-speed movement to generate swings and misses. He landed just below league average in xERA, K%, and hard hit % in 2023.
The upside for Allen clearly lies on the team in the batter’s box. He faces an Athletics squad that finished dead last in hitting last season. Oakland has a low fantasy total projection tonight in their home ballpark that is difficult for both right-handed and left-handed hitters. All systems go for Allen to outperform his DraftKings salary tonight.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Corbin Carroll ($5,800) vs. Colorado Rockies
Corbin Carroll will have a hard time topping his first full major league season as the Diamondbacks returned to the World Series for the first time since 2001. Carroll played a leading role in the run, batting .285/.362/.506 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases.
The 23-year-old led the league in base running run value and finished in the top 5% of batting run value. His fantasy versatility to produce at the plate and on the bases boosts his Ceiling projection on a daily basis.
Carroll has a high ISO tonight facing Colorado right-hander Cal Quantrill. After an impressive 15-5 season in 2022, Quantrill followed up with a disappointing 4-7 mark and 5.24 ERA in 2024. He struck out just 13.1% of batters and allowed a .365 xwOBA. The model loves Carroll in this spot to produce strong fantasy results.
Gleyber Torres ($4,200) at Houston Astros
The model loves the Dodgers and Diamondbacks hitters on the main slate, but Gleyber Torres sneaks up in the model as a strong value play today in Houston.
The Yankees second baseman had his best production last season since 2019 with .273/.347/.453 batting marks and 25 home runs. His plate vision improved greatly into 2023 as his walk rate jumped from 6.8% to 10%, and his K% dropped from 22.6% to 14.6%.
At $4,200, Torres has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any hitter at his salary level on the slate. He faces Cristian Javier in Houston, who is 30-17 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his four major league seasons. Javier relies on movement and placement to deceive hitters. If Torres can use his vision and patience, he may find a few pitches tonight that he can put a barrel on.
