The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Yainer Diaz ($3,000): Catcher, Houston Astros
MLB’s schedule-makers made sure that two of the most rabid fanbases had something to look forward to on Opening Day. The perennial contending Houston Astros host the rebuilt New York Yankees for a four-game set, starting with an afternoon matinee on Thursday.
As usual, there is no shortage of offensive contributors in the Astros lineup; however, 2024 could be a coming-out party for Yainer Diaz. The 25-year-old had a solid rookie campaign, finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting. Still, his metrics support that Diaz’s run production values will soar this season.
Diaz finished last season with an elite analytics profile. His .543 expected slugging percentage put him in the 96th percentile among all MLB batters, with his .360 expected weighted on-base average coming in just below that in the 84th percentile. With a full year of at-bats under his belt, an improved chase percentage could help Diaz ratchet those values even higher.
The Astros catcher did most of his damage at Minute Maid Park. His .973 OPS at home was nearly 300 points higher than his road value, and 14 of his 23 homers came at home. With the added benefit of a righty vs. lefty matchup, Diaz should easily surpass the implied value of his salary on Opening Day.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow ($9,500) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
We’re going to hear a lot about the Los Angeles Dodgers this year, so we’re sorry for starting that chatter on Opening Day. But we’re confident Tyler Glasnow is worth the investment. The Dodgers ace was tapped for Opening Day, and he projects as the top arm available on the afternoon slate.
Of course, the Dodgers already got their regular season started in last week’s International showdown versus the San Diego Padres. Glasnow pitched in Korea, coming out with a no-decision after 5.0 innings of two-run ball. Getting stretched out in a regular season game gives Glasnow yet another unneeded advantage over the Cards.
Glasnow’s peripherals are on another level. His 35.3% whiff rate and 33.4% strikeout percentage put him among the top 4% of pitchers last season and position him for fantasy success again in 2024. The 30-year-old has a solid four-pitch mix, primarily relying on a devastating four-seamer/slider combo to keep batters off the base paths.
The Cardinals need to bounce back after a down year last season, but they’ll struggle to get anything going against Glasnow. The big righty leads our median and ceiling projections and is expected to end the day as the top performing fantasy pitcher.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,400) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Alright, this will be the last Dodger we highlight on Opening Day. We promise. When LA invested $700 million in Shohei Ohtani, they were expecting his performance to pay immediate dividends. Thankfully, they should see early returns in Thursday’s tilt against the Cardinals.
Ohtani has been a remarkable talent at the plate, and his analytics profile validates that position. The Japanese national finished in the 99th percentile or higher in virtually every category, highlighted by his .427 expected weighted on-base average, .638 slugging percentage, and 19.6% barrel rate. Naturally, the left-handed batting Ohtani has thrived against righties, delivering a 1.132 OPS in 2023.
Miles Mikolas doesn’t have the stuff to inhibit Ohtani’s onslaught. Worse, he’s got a terrible track record on Opening Day. Last year, Mikolas got roughed up to the tune of 10 hits and five earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched. A few years earlier, in 2019, he gave up five runs in 5.0 innings, getting torched for three home runs.
The two-time AL MVP is ready to translate his successes to the Senior Circuit. And he’s projected to make a good impression against St. Louis. It’s too late to save Mikolas for Game 2 of the season, and the Dodgers’ probability of winning increases because of it. Ohtani will be a driving force on offense and could reach his fantasy ceiling early in the game.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Jesus Luzardo ($7,600) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Our value radar is going through the roof with our second pitcher. Jesus Luzardo enters the 2024 season on the strength of a breakout campaign last year. The Miami Marlins ace posted a career-best ten wins, tossing 178.2 innings with 208 strikeouts. Combined with sterling underlying metrics, that meteoric rise could thrust Luzardo into another stratosphere.
The 26-year-old throws smoke from the mound, forcing hitters to try and keep up. Luzardo’s average velocity of 96.7 mph put him on the elite end of the spectrum and helped solidify his strikeout metrics. His 31.3% chase rate and 31.4% whiff percentage were instrumental in pushing Luzardo to the 82nd percentile in strikeout percentage.
The Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the worst teams in the majors hitting off lefties last season. Their .701 OPS was fifth-worst in the MLB, and their 464 strikeouts were second-most. With some of their top hitters batting left, the Pirates will likely continue to struggle versus southpaws.
This could be the lowest salary that’s offered on Luzardo all season. His career trajectory has him pointed upward, and he’ll flourish in the first game of the season. Low-key, Luzardo could be the steal of the day.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Jake Fraley($4,300) vs. Washington Nationals
Jake Fraley probably isn’t a name you’ll hear all the time in fantasy discussions. The Cincinnati Reds outfielder has been a middling offensive contributor throughout his career. However, he is coming off a banner year in 2023, and there will be circumstances where he can transform your roster. Opening Day is one of those situations.
Fraley set career benchmarks virtually across the board last year. His 15 homers, 65 RBI, and 41 runs scored were all new high marks, while his .443 slugging percentage was the highest of any season in which he played more than 78 games.
As a left-handed batter, most of Fraley’s production came against righties. In 339 plate appearances last season, Fraley put together a .815 OPS, representing all 15 of his homers and 60 of his RBI. Those proficiencies are also captured in his PlateIQ profile, as Fraley sits fourth on the Reds in wOBA and sixth in ISO.
Consider Fraley an x-factor in the Reds’ showdown versus the Washington Nationals and expect him to deliver. The lefty has the third-best ceiling projections on the afternoon slate, and Fraley should have no problems reaching that lofty standard.
Jose Altuve ($5,500) vs. New York Yankees
There is no shortage of stacking options on the first slate of the season. Several other Reds players project well, as do the forbidden Dodgers, but our preferred angle is pairing Jose Altuve with the aforementioned Yainer Diaz, as we expect the Astros to come out swinging versus New York.
Altuve has been one of the most consistent hitters over the last two seasons. He totaled a .920 OPS in 2022, following that up with a .915 mark last season. While injuries limited his output in 2023, we’re expecting no such setbacks this season. That starts in the first game of the season, with Altuve teeing off left-hander Nestor Cortes.
Predictably, Altuve thrives against lefties. His OPS jumps 80 points against southpaws, thanks to improved slugging and on-base percentages. Effectively, all of his relative metrics improve when the pitching matchup favors Altuve.
Those advantages are reflected in our projections, showing Altuve with one of the best fantasy ceilings. Moreover, that’s also captured in his PlateIQ profile. Altogether, Altuve is worth including in any format on Thursday.
