The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Abraham Toro ($2,200): Third Baseman, Oakland Athletics
A product of the Houston Astros development system and now a member of the Oakland Athletics, Abraham Toro is finally asserting himself as an everyday MLB player. The third baseman is starting to assert himself as an integral part of the A’s offensive attack, a fact that is not yet reflected in his DFS salary. Consequently, he remains one of the top value plays on the board on Tuesday’s slate.
After being deployed off the bench for the first week of the season, Toro has taken on a more robust role recently. Over his last two starts, the Canadian has totaled three hits in seven at-bats (nine plate appearances), two RBI, three runs, scored, and a home run. Moreover, he’s poised to continue that hot play in tonight’s clash versus the Texas Rangers.
The Rangers trot Nathan Eovaldi out to the mound for this AL West battle, and his metrics aren’t as sterling as his stats imply. Eovaldi gives up a concerning amount of hard contact, typically hovering around 43.0% and putting him among the worst pitchers in baseball.
Toro and his Athletics teammates are beneficiaries of that ineffective pitching on Tuesday night. Further, it will facilitate Toro’s upward trajectory that we’ve seen over the past few days. Leading our Plus/Minus and Points/Salary categories, the third baseman is a must-roster player on the main slate.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow ($10,100) vs. Minnesota Twins
The Los Angeles Dodgers knew exactly what they were getting when they traded for Tyler Glasnow. More importantly, the ace has lived up to the hype with his new squad. We’re expecting another Cy Young-caliber performance from Glasgow, as his Dodgers travel to take on the Minnesota Twins.
Through three starts, Glasnow has cemented his position as one of the top pitchers in baseball. The former fifth-round pick is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA and paltry 0.88 WHIP and has underlying metrics supporting ongoing success.
Glasnow continues to deliver some of the most unhittable pitches from the bump. Relying primarily on a fastball-slider combination, the tall righty is inducing a 46.2% whiff rate on his slider. Likewise, batters can’t get a read on his curveball, coming in with a 44.4% whiff rate.
Moreover, in reconciling his current form with his analytics profile, Glasnow is a progression candidate. He’s operating above his expected ERA, and his cumulative whiff rate is substantially lower than his career norms. As those metrics balance out, we should see even better performances from Glasnow. We’re betting that starts tonight against the Twins.
Hitter
Corbin Carroll ($5,700) vs. Colorado Rockies
Any time you can roster a primo hitter at Coors Field, you take it. Especially when it’s Corbin Carroll. His Arizona Diamondbacks are in Denver taking on the Colorado Rockies, and we’re expecting a special performance from Carroll in this NL West showdown.
It’s been an uncharacteristically slow start to the season for Carroll. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has been operating below capacity for the first few weeks of the season, but he should be able to reverse those fortunes in the hitter-friendly confines and high-altitude of Coors Field.
We’ve got Carroll earmarked for meaningful progression. His .250 slugging percentage is a substantial deviation from last year’s benchmark of .506 and remains below expected. Getting to knock around Rockies’ probable starter Cal Quantrill should facilitate that growth.
The left-handed batting Carroll reserves his best efforts for soft-throwing righties. Four of Quantrill’s five offerings hover around the 85 mph range, and his fastball tops out at 93 mph. Those conditions should allow Carroll to live up to his ceiling and reach his fantasy pinnacle on Tuesday.
Be sure to monitor the weather for the Pirates-Nationals game.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Carlos Rodon ($7,900) vs. Miami Marlins
It’s been a temper-mental start to the season for Carlos Rodon. Through two starts, the New York Yankees southpaw is winless with a 2.79 ERA, and he hasn’t looked good in either one of those outings. That ineffectiveness is also reflected in his underlying metrics, as he’s put forth a lackluster analytics profile. Nevertheless, we expect a more refined approach from Rodon against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday.
Simply, Rodon’s backup pitches just haven’t been working. So far this season, he’s complemented his fastball with a slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball, none of which of fooling hitters. As such, opponents have been able to sit on his four-seamer and knock around Rodon.
However, Rodon is operating well outside of normal ranges with those pitches. His whiff and chase rates are below average, and he should have some luck in getting those numbers back up against a lowly Marlins squad. Miami has compiled the third-worst OPS in the MLB while ranking in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts.
We expect Rodon to sort out his issues in short order. Getting to torch the Marlins is step one in that process, and the hard-throwing lefty should exceed the implied value of his salary on Tuesday’s main slate.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Joc Pederson ($4,200) vs. Colorado Rockies
Count Joc Pederson as another one of the Diamondbacks hitters who will shine against the Rockies. Unlike Carroll, though, no progression is needed, as Pederson has been one of the hottest hitters in the bigs to open the 2024 campaign.
Pederson has been deployed in a supporting role for the Diamondbacks, but he should find himself in the heart of the lineup at Coors Field. Projected to bat fifth, Pedey will fulfill his role as a left-handed batting specialist versus right-handed pitchers.
Over the past few seasons, Pederson has established himself as a hard-hitting lefty and analytics darling. His 51.4% hard-hit rate since 2022 puts him in the upper echelon of MLB hitters, and he’s wielding that power again this season. The California native has a .533 slugging percentage in 21 plate appearances thanks to his disciplined approach and optimum launch angle.
There’s nothing that Quantrill can offer to slow down Pederson, Carroll, or the rest of the Diamondbacks. As such, you can add Pederson to your D-Backs stack and be confident that he will deliver.
Ezequiel Duran ($2,600) vs. Oakland Athletics
We are going back to the A’s vs. Rangers with our final pick, highlighting Ezequiel Duran as a top value option on tonight’s slate. The Rangers third baseman has been a modest contributor early in 2024 but is poised for a good showing at home.
As is the case with many value picks, there’s a contrarian angle to rostering Duran. He’s operating below normal ranges to start the season, but he has respectable underlying metrics. The 24-year-old has put together a 37.5% hard-hit rate with an identical 37.5% sweet spot rate. Combined, those batted balls should yield an improved slugging percentage, although it will likely take an improved launch angle to resolve.
Thankfully, Duran will have the opportunity to sort that out against the left-handed throwing Alex Wood. Throughout his career, Duran’s slugging percentage jumps 100 points versus southpaws, going from .387 to .486. Predictably, the rest of his stats improve under these favorable circumstances, implying that Duran is one the preferred value picks worth rostering tonight.
