The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jack Suwinski ($3,700): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
For years, the Pittsburgh Pirates cultivated young talented players as they struggled to compete in the NL Central. Now, those pieces have come together to create one of the top teams in the game. As we saw last night, Jack Suwinski has cemented himself as one of the top offensive producers, and he’ll have the chance to be a catalyst again Thursday versus the Washington Nationals.
Suwinski is coming off a two-hit, 21.0 fantasy point effort against the Nats. He went yard for his first home run of the year, adding a double, two runs, and an RBI to round out his performance. More importantly, Suwinski’s underlying metrics support that those are the types of efforts we should expect from the Pirates outfielder this year.
The former 15th-round pick is barreling balls at a stunning 15.7% rate, putting him in the 94th percentile among MLB hitters. Additionally, Suwinski ranks in the 74th percentile in expected weighted on-base average and the 75th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Relative to his actual slugging percentage, Suwinski is operating below expected, making him a natural progression candidate over the coming games.
The Pirates offense is flourishing, and Suwinski gets to take some credit for their early-season success. We’re expecting his upward trajectory to continue, which is also reflected in his position atop our Projected Plus/Minus category.
Be sure to monitor the weather for the Pirates-Nationals game.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tanner Bibee ($9,200) vs. Minnesota Twins
It’s been a whirlwind start to the regular season for the Cleveland Guardians. Playing 10 straight on the road to open the campaign, the Guardians kick off a three-game set versus the Minnesota Twins on Thursday before curiously having an off-day on Friday. Nevertheless, we expect Tanner Bibee to be at his best for the AL Central showdown, as he lives up to the hype as our median and ceiling projection leader.
Bibee’s first game against the Oakland Athletics didn’t go as planned. The second-year pro last just 4.0 innings after getting torched for six hits, five walks, and three earned runs. Still, he had one of the best analytics profiles on the Guardians last season and is poised for a bounce-back effort on Thursday.
Bibee is a soft-contact guru, effectively mixing his four-pitch repertoire and avoiding the meaty part of the bat. Last year, he finished in the 80th percentile in barrel rate and 71st percentile in expected ERA, thanks in part to his 88.9 mph average exit velocity.
The issue against the A’s was Bibee’s slider. He couldn’t locate it, allowing a .704 expected slugging percentage. That’s a substantial deviation from last year’s benchmark of .307, a level Bibee should start working toward over his coming start. Thankfully, the Twins can facilitate some of that progression, as they rate as a bottom-ten team in OPS and runs scored.
We’re confident in our algorithm, expecting Bibbee to shine on Thursday’s slate.
Hitter
Oneil Cruz ($5,500) vs. Washington Nationals
We’re adding to our Pirates’ stack with our ceiling hitter. Oneil Cruz came flying out of the gates to start the season, totaling five hits and a 1.009 OPS through the first three games of the season. However, he’s cooled off since then, recording just one hit over his last three. He should have no problem snapping out of the mini-rut against the always-hittable Josiah Gray.
Aside from the obvious lefty vs. righty advantage, Cruz also has a few other factors working in his favor. First, after missing most of last season, Cruz is quickly finding his power stroke early in 2024. The 25-year-old has 10.0% barrel and 30.0% sweet spot rates. That puts him right on track with career norms in sweet spot contact, inching him closer to his 14.6% barrel rate.
Secondly, Gray will be serving pitches up for opposing hitters in Thursday’s matinee. The Nats’ ace had an astounding 71.4% hard-hit rate in his season-opener, getting barreled 21.4% of the time, yielding a .571 expected slugging percentage. Sadly, the resulting 7.31 expected ERA doesn’t put him that far off last year’s benchmark of 5.03. Worse, we’re not expecting an improved effort against one of the hottest teams in the bigs.
Cruz is finding his rhythm at the plate, and getting to tee off Gray will help with that. Cruz’s fantasy ceiling is also reflected in his Plate IQ profile, validating his spot as a leader in our projections. We’re expecting him to end the day as one of the top fantasy performers at the plate.
Be sure to monitor the weather for the Pirates-Nationals game.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Ryan Weathers ($6,200) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Stay with us on this one, but one of the top-value arms today has the lowest salary on the slate. Ryan Weathers wasn’t nearly as bad as his 6.75 ERA implies. The southpaw relies primarily on three pitches, mixing them effectively against the Pirates in his first start of the season. Weathers underachieved relative to his analytics, but he should have more good fortune against a free-swinging St. Louis Cardinals side.
The Miami Marlins pitcher didn’t give up much solid contact in his first start. Weathers delivered a 35.7% hard-hit rate and a 7.1% barrel rate, both of which put him in the top half of the league. Moreover, his 3.91 expected ERA is nearly half of his actual, thanks for his .308 expected slugging percentage and 28.6% sweet spot rate.
Thursday’s matchup against the Cards is exactly what’s needed to get Weathers where he needs to be. Through the first week of the season, St. Louis has accumulated the third-most strikeouts and seventh-worst OPS, compounding many of the issues they faced last year.
If Weathers matches his effort from last time out, he should deliver much-improved results. That makes him the ideal buy-low candidate and a solid complementary piece that will be left of the majority of rosters on Thursday.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Braden Shewmake ($2,300) vs. Kansas City Royals
It’s early in the season, so unless you’re a Chicago White Sox fan or heavily invested in uncovering value fantasy players, chances are you have yet to come across Braden Shewmake. The rookie shortstop has made a few appearances this season, but should be ready to deliver another top-tier effort against the Kansas City Royals.
Shewmake had a sensational 2024 debut. The former first-round pick went 2-for-4 at the dish, including in his first career home run. Although he has yet to replicate that performance, he’ll have the opportunity to produce against Seth Lugo and the Royals’ underwhelming bullpen.
KC has been one of the worst pitching teams in the league. Their bullpen ERA of 8.02 ranks dead last in the majors, giving up a .354 opponent batting average and 1.91 walks and hits per inning pitched. Seth Lugo fared well in his first start, but we still give the advantage to Shewmake in this one. The left-handed batter has the added bonus of facing the righty before getting to the relievers.
Shewmake’s solid 10.0% barrel rate and optimum launch angle make him a fantasy star in the making. Facing Lugo and the Royals bullpen only amplifies his ceiling. The White Sox rookie rates among the top players in all of our value categories, making him one of our preferred plays on today’s slate.
Rowdy Tellez ($3,200) vs. Washington Nationals
With only a handful of games to choose from, we are going full-send on the Pirates. Undoubtedly, there is value in adding Rowdy Tellez to our trio of Pirates players we expect to make a fantasy impact versus the Nats.
Tellez has been used sparingly this year, accumulating 13 plate appearances in six games. Still, he’s made every one of those count, establishing a .385 on-base percentage with one home run and three RBI.
More impressively, Tellez has been a resounding analytics success. Every one of his batted balls has been hard-hit, barreling the ball 33.3% of the time and a 66.7% sweet spot rate.
The left-handed batting first baseman is used almost exclusively against righties. And for good reason. Twenty-one of his 23 extra-base hits last year came off of righties, and that will only be amplified against Gray and his lackluster metrics. Add Tellez to the growing list of Pirates we expect to excel on today’s slate.
