MLB

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for April 3

By Matt Martin @mattmartin_19
Apr 3, 2024

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Rowdy Tellez ($2,800): First Baseman, Pittsburgh Pirates

We have a smaller main slate tonight with only five games, which could drop to four as there’s questionable weather in the Tigers and Mets game. However, there’s always appeal to having some value plays to load up at other positions.

Tellez has had a middling start to the year, batting .250 with one home run thus far. The Pirates faced a slew of left-handed pitchers in their first five games, which led to Tellez starting the game on the bench three times. The Nationals are sending out right-handed Trevor Williams tonight, which bodes well for Tellez.

Williams allowed a .195 xISO and .355 xwOBA to left-handed hitters last season, including a .223 xISO on his fastball, which he threw just under 50% of the time to lefties. Tellez posted a .147 xISO and .311 xwOBA against right-handed pitchers as a whole but had great numbers against righty fastballs, with a .189 xISO and .358 xwOBA.

Tellez has had great power to start the year, with a .247 ISO vs. righties. He is a great bargain pick tonight against the Nationals.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Tyler Glasnow ($9,800) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tyler Glasnow is one of the few pitchers we’ve already seen two starts from. He hasn’t started at his elite level, but it’s a very small sample size of 11 innings, and his velocity is the same as last year.

He’s also still getting swings and misses at similar rates, with a 15.28% and 17.44% swinging strike percentage to lefties and righties, respectively. Those numbers sat at 16.83% and 17.56% during his 2023 campaign.

Few pitchers on this slate can come close to Glasnow’s ceiling. We’ve seen him mow down batters time and time again. He has the highest ceiling projection by over five points and has a strikeout prop of 7.5, with not a single other pitcher over 5.5.

Righties gave Glasnow a little bit of trouble last season, but only two Giants’ righties tonight (Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman) posted above a .200 xISO against righties last season. If Glasnow can navigate around these two, he should have no problem. San Francisco also has five batters who posted above a 25% strikeout percentage last year, with all but one batter above 20%.

Glasnow is the most expensive option tonight, but his ceiling makes him a great click.

Hitter

Oneil Cruz ($5,300) vs. Washington Nationals

Oneil Cruz has started the year aggressively, going 6-for-19 with a home run, two RBI, five runs, and nine strikeouts. We’ve already highlighted Trevor Williams’ struggles against lefties, as he allowed a .195 xISO and .355 xwOBA to left-handed hitters last season, including a .223 xISO on his fastball.

Cruz had solid numbers against lefties as a whole, with a .177 xISO and .314 xwOBA. However, he pulverized the fastball with a whopping .515 xISO and .499 xwOBA. Williams’ struggles against lefties, partnered with Cruz’s prowess on the fastball, make it no surprise that he leads all hitters in ceiling projection.

The Nationals have a middling bullpen behind Williams, so Cruz should have advantageous matchups at the plate each time up. Usually, the most expensive batters boast the top ceiling projection, but Cruz owns the crown as the ninth-highest priced batter on the slate, making him a steal.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Adrian Houser ($7,200) vs. Detroit Tigers

Weather is a little bit of a concern, but if it holds, Adrian Houser looks like a strong SP2 option on tonight’s slate. There aren’t many appealing picks outside of Glasnow, so I’d prefer to take some savings at SP2. Houser keeps the ball on the ground against righties and shouldn’t have any trouble with the Tigers lefties outside of Carpenter and Greene.

He allowed a .159 xISO to lefties and .140 mark to righties in the 2023 season. Carpenter and Greene both posted above .200 xISOs against right-handed pitching in 2023, and both have solid numbers against fastballs and sinkers, which Houser combines to throw about 70% of the time to lefties.

However, Houser is cheap, and there isn’t much trouble in this lineup besides those two. Houser isn’t the biggest strikeout pitcher, as he struck out lefties 21% of the time and righties 19% of the time last year. There are potential strikeouts in this lineup, as seven Tigers have above a 23% strikeout percentage and five above 25%.

Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitters

Ian Happ ($4,800) vs. Colorado Rockies

The Cubs stand.out tonight as an offense to target against Colorado. Cal Quantrill is a low-strikeout pitcher who gives up a lot of damage to both sides of the plate, and the Rockies have a poor bullpen behind him.

Quantrill gave up nearly identical numbers to both sides of the plate in 2023, with a .192 xISO and .371 xwOBA to lefties and .196 and .361 marks to righties. He also throws his sinker 38% of the time to lefties and 45% of the time to righties, and the switch-hitter Ian Happ has great numbers against the sinker.

Happ posted a .186 xISO and .363 xwOBA against righties in 2023 but had stellar numbers against the sinker, with a .225 xISO and .442 xwOBA. Being a switch-hitter, we don’t have to worry about potential bad matchups out of the bullpen, either.

He stands out as a strong play tonight.

Yordan Alvarez ($5,800 DraftKings) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Bassitt was great against righties but putrid against lefties in 2023, which sets up nicely for Yordan Alvarez. Bassitt posted a .208 xISO and .331 xwOBA against lefties as a whole. He combined to throw his sinker and cutter 50% of the time to lefties, allowing above a .240 xISO on both pitches.

Alvarez shredded right-handed pitchers as a whole, with a monstrous .387 xISO and .467 xwOBA. His numbers against righty sinkers and cutters are laughably good, with a .345 xISO and .403 xwOBA against cutters and a .396 xISO and .528 xwOBA against sinkers.

He’s had a quiet start to the year, batting .125 thus far. However, he’s getting hard contact and putting the ball in play, so it’s only a matter of time before he explodes.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.