The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nicky Lopez ($2,100): Second Baseman, Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox conclude their four-game set against the Minnesota Twins with Thursday’s matinee. The Chi Sox have dropped the opening three games of the series, moving their losing streak to six straight. Nevertheless, Nicky Lopez should inject some unexpected fantasy value to the top half of the lineup.
The left-handed batting Lopez projects to be the lead-off man versus righty Simeon Woods Richardson. Woods Richardson gives up a lot of hard contact, hitting the 40.0% mark in his lone start, resulting in a below-average expected slugging percentage.
Moreover, we’re anticipating growth from Lopez, who is operating below expected levels. The White Sox infielder’s actual slugging percentage of .208 is below expected .285, and even further off his career average of .302. That bodes well for improved performances over his immediate schedule.
The more appealing perspective is that Lopez enters today’s intra-divisional battle with hits in six of his previous seven, representing most of his production this season. That upward trajectory continues versus the Twins, with Lopez exceeding the implied value of his modest salary.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($10,000) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday’s main slate is shaping up to be a battle of back-of-the-rotation and under-performing arms. That’s why Zack Wheeler stands head and shoulders above the rest of the starting pitchers. Not only does his fantasy salary exceed all of his peers, his median and ceiling projections are also substantially ahead of the pack.
Wheeler’s standing as the preferred pitcher stands out in every regard. First, the Philadelphia Phillies ace is delivering exceptional performances every time he toes the rubber. Wheeler has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in three of his five starts, all of which have been quality outings. Additionally, base runners have been scarce, with the former Cy Young runner up allowing just 0.91 walks and hits per inning pitched.
Those traditional stats are complemented by his robust fantasy profile and stellar strikeout metrics. Wheeler is fanning 10.9 per nine innings, ranking in the 85th percentile in strikeout rate and 96th percentage in chase rate.
Surely, those metrics will serve him well against the Cincinnati Reds. The free-swinging Reds have accumulated the ninth-most strikeouts on the season, including 13 in last night’s contest. Wheeler can extend that misery while inflating his own stats in the series finale. No pitcher can hold a candle to what Wheeler brings on today’s slate.
Hitter
Julio Rodriguez ($4,000) vs. Texas Rangers
Julio Rodriguez validated every preconceived notion about him this season. The Seattle Mariners franchise cornerstone has earned a reputation for starting slow, a trend that continued into 2024. Still, J-Rod has gotten the prerequisite number of at-bats and has started his climb back to the elite end of the fantasy spectrum.
Prior to last night’s hitless performance, Rodriguez was tearing the cover off the baseball. The third-year pro had totaled 14 hits over his previous seven outings, accumulating three extra-base hits, five RBI, and six runs scored. Rodriguez added further value on the base paths, stealing four bags across that sample. More importantly, J-Rod’s production comes from a sustainable place. He continue to operate below expected values and career norms, substantiating the ongoing success.
Andrew Heaney offers little in terms of resistance for slowing Rodriguez down. The veteran southpaw perennially ranks among the hardest-hit pitchers, and 2024 is no different. Heaney has below-average barrel and hard-hit rates, to go along with a sub-optimal expected slugging percentage.
Rodriguez ranks among the elite fantasy producers on today’s main slate, and considering the favorable conditions, we expect him to reach his ceiling against the Texas Rangers.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Triston McKenzie ($7,700) vs. Boston Red Sox
We continue to catch glimpses of greatness from Triston McKenzie, albeit inconsistently. The Cleveland Guardians pitcher has alternated above and below-average performances early this season, which has been a frequent occurrence throughout his career. Still, we like him to build off his most recent start and limit the Boston Red Sox in today’s matinee.
McKenzie is coming off his best start of the season. The soft-throwing righty held the Oakland Athletics to just three hits and one earned run across 5.0 innings pitched last time out. Granted, his outing looks less effective when we adjust for opponent, but those are the green sprouts we continue to see in McKenzie’s metrics.
The former first-round pick has mixed his three-pitch arsenal effectively, inducing a 26.9% whiff rate on his curveball and a 37.5% mark on his slider. When he locates his fastball effectively, he limits the amount of damage opponents can do.
Progressive Field has been McKenzie’s sanctuary this season, and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday. His ERA drops to 3.68 at home, with improved underlying metrics. As a result, he’s our preferred bargain option among pitchers, delivering consecutive above-average results against the Red Sox.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Xander Bogaerts ($5,100) vs. Colorado Rockies
The San Diego Padres are an enigma. Every year, they are expected to compete, but somehow they always fall short of their expected ceiling. That’s been the case early this season, with Padres hitters struggling to deliver consistent performances. However, we’re starting to see improved production from the top of their lineup, and that starts with a resurgent Xander Bogaerts.
Coming into Thursday’s showdown versus the Rockies, Bogaerts has seven hits over his last five starts. Included in that is last night’s three-hit effort, which was his second multi-hit effort over his past four. We are anticipating ongoing success from Bogaerts as he benefits from the hitter-friendly dimensions of Coors Field.
Of course, Bogaerts has the analytics profile supporting ongoing improvement. The five-time Silver Slugger is over 100 points off his expected slugging percentage and well below career norms, implying that he remains a progression candidate over the coming weeks.
Bogaerts sets the table for the rest of the Padres lineup, and he’s done a better job or fulfilling those duties lately. We’re anticipating another stellar performance from him on Thursday, helping the Padres head into the weekend on a high note.
Mitch Garver ($3,500) vs. Texas Rangers
We’re sure Mitch Garver was hoping this series would have gone better. After being jettisoned by the Rangers this past off-season, the Mariners’ catcher/designated hitter had a bone to pick with his former club. But Garver has been held hitless in seven at-bats through the first two games of the series back in his former stomping grounds. We like him to reverse course on that trend with a solid performance on Thursday.
Like many value candidates, there’s an under-performing aspect to Garver’s appeal. The 33-year-old has failed to reach his usual standards early this season but has career metrics suggesting things will get better in the short term. Garver’s .234 slugging percentage is less than half of last year’s .500 benchmark, with his strikeout rate jumping nearly 5.0%.
Like Rodriguez, Garver benefits from batting against a combustible Heaney. We’re expecting him to begin his upward climb back toward normal ranges starting with today’s showdown against his former club.
