The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Heston Kjerstad ($2,400): Outfielder, Baltimore Orioles
Surprise, surprise. The Baltimore Orioles have yet another young top prospect that they can use to inject more runs into their already potent offense. The O’s called up Heston Kjerstad on Monday, and we expect him to be in the lineup for Tuesday’s showdown versus the Los Angeles Angels.
Not surprisingly, Kjerstad has been raking with Triple-A Norfolk. The former second-overall selection has a mind-numbing 1.176 OPS to start the season, already smoking ten homers in 21 games played. Predictably, that correlates with elite run production, with Kjerstad driving in 30 and coming around to score 25 more.
In a limited sample size last year, Kjerstad was absolutely destroying baseballs at the MLB level. His 20.0% barrel rate and .551 expected slugging percentage would have been good enough to land in the top 5% of hitters had the Orioles’ slugger qualified.
This promotion is well deserved, and we expect Kjerstad to make the most of it. This will probably be the last time his salary is $2,400, so don’t pass up adding him to your lineup.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($9,300) vs. Chicago White Sox
Pablo Lopez’s ascent to the top of our median and ceiling projections is multi-factorial. The Minnesota Twins’ ace has had an exceptional start to the season, and he benefits from taking on one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. It should all come together tonight, as Lopez continues his torrid start at home.
Lopez has cemented himself as an AL Cy Young front runner early in 2024. The hard-throwing righty has wielded his five-pitch arsenal unmercifully, rating in the 78th percentile in whiff rate and 87th percentile in chase rate. Surely, those metrics ratchet even higher against a free-swinging White Sox squad that has already accumulated 190 strikeouts in 22 games played.
Arguably, the more appealing angle with Lopez is his anticipated progression. As good as he’s been, Lopez is operating above his expected ERA of 3.01. Consequently, he’s poised for a series of elite outings, as his traditional stats balance out with the expected.
Lastly, the White Sox have some of the saddest profiles in our PlateIQ rankings, validating Lopez’s position atop our rankings. All of that plays into Lopez’s standing as the preeminent arm available on the main slate.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,000) vs. Colorado Rockies
There’s nothing quite like a showdown at Coors Field to get the fantasy points flowing. Coming off a string of disappointing outings, Fernando Tatis Jr. got back to his run-producing ways in Monday night’s series opener against the Colorado Rockies. We are anticipating that upward trajectory continuing into Tuesday’s showdown versus the always-generous Ryan Feltner.
Tatis Jr. has been one of the more prolific hitters to open the season. The two-time Silver Slugger ranks in the 90th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and hard-hit rate. More importantly, he’s translated that analytics success to tangible on-field results.
Through 95 at-bats, the San Diego Padres outfielder has six home runs, nine extra-base hits, 15 RBI, and 16 runs scored. Moreover, he occasionally flexes his base-stealing muscles while also adding value with walks.
Feltner’s barrel rate continues to do him in, and we expect that to cost him at Coors Field on Tuesday. The Rockies’ probable starter has already given up four homers in 21.1 innings pitched this season, a benchmark that will haunt him at home all year.
Tatis Jr. is the primary beneficiary, and we expect him to end the night as one of the top-performing hitters on the main slate.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Max Fried ($8,000) vs. Miami Marlins
It wasn’t so long ago that Max Fried finished second in NL Cy Young voting. The Atlanta Braves southpaw followed up that triumphant 2022 campaign with an injury-plagued 2023, leaving DFS punters short on him to start the season. Nevertheless, we are believers in Fried and we expect him to improve on his early-season performances.
Leading up to this season, Fried has finished with a 143 ERA+ or better in four straight seasons. More impressively, his career average of 139 reflects his ability to consistently top-end results. Fried still has some inspiring metrics pointing toward renewed success as the season progresses.
Strikeouts have never been a signifcant part of Fried’s success, and he’s still finding his way around the strikezone. Still, he’s been one of the best pitchers at avoiding solid contact over the past few seasons, and that’s reflected in this year’s starts. Fried ranks in the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate and 92nd percentile in average exit velocity.
With improved command around the zone, Fried will inevitably recapture at least some of the form that helped make him a perennial Cy Young candidate. His ERA should start working down toward expected, contributing to his bargain status over the coming weeks. That’s particularly true versus the ineffective Miami Marlins on Tuesday.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Yordan Alvarez ($5,400) vs. Chicago Cubs
Arguably the best value on tonight’s main slate still comes at a hefty cost. Yordan Alvarez has emerged from his early-season slumber with some truly remarkable efforts lately. With the wind expected to be blowing out on Tuesday, we could see a season-best fantasy effort from Alvarez.
Over his last 17 games, Alvarez has produced seven multi-hit efforts. Moreover, all five of his homers have come over that stretch, as well as all of his extra-base hits, representing a significant chunk of his slugging percentage. But we’re expecting sustained success from the Astros slugger, as his .489 slugging percentage remains well below the expected benchmark of .693
As expected, Alvarez’s recent upswing is supported with his elite analytics. The perennial AL MVP candidate rates in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate, 98th percentile in expected slugging percentage, and 99th percentile in expected weighted on-base average.
Altogether, Alvarez possesses the tools and analytics to continue thriving. If they can stop themselves from throwing the balls back onto the field, at least someone from the Wrigley Field faithful should leave with a souvenir tonight.
Seth Brown ($3,000) vs. New York Yankees
It’s not everyday we boast about the fantasy value an Oakland Athletics player brings to the docket, but it’s a position we’re taking on Tuesday’s main slate. Seth Brown has been one of the more consistent hitters for the A’s this season, and he’ll remain a focal point against Marcus Stroman tonight.
Coming off the bench in two of his past five outings, Brown has tallied four hits across that modest stretch.Included in that are hits in two straight and a double at the end of last week versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Still, Brown is projected to produce a more robust fantasy effort at Yankee Stadium.
Surely, Brown benefits from the hitter-friendly confines in the Bronx, but the left-handed batter has also delivered his best production versus righties. All three of his extra-base hits have come off righties, accounting for three of his four RBI and both runs scored.
Stroman pitches to contact, and Brown has been getting barrel to ball over his recent sample. With that, we’re expecting the A’s outfielder to exceed the implied value of his salary and continue his upward trajectory versus the Yankees.
