The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Masyn Winn ($2,600): Shortstop, St. Louis Cardinals
The 22-year-old Cardinals shortstop sits in the top 10% of major league hitters in both sweet spot % and whiff rate, giving him some boom-or-bust fantasy potential. Through 20 games, that potential has yielded a .317/.377/.433 batting line for Masyn Winn.
Power results have yet to come with his respectable hitting numbers. With no home runs on the season, Winn does have two triples on the ledger with three doubles and three stolen bases. The ceiling is relatively low, but Winn has a +2.66 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Cardinals face Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt today with his 5.32 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in four starts this season. Pfaadt is allowing a .341 wOBA and .419 xSLG.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Reid Detmers ($8,500) vs. Baltimore Orioles
What a start to 2024 for Reid Detmers after a disappointing 4-10 season in 2024! He sits at 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through four starts.
His 34.9% strikeout rate is more than 10% better than his career average, and he is holding hitters to an impressive .256 xwOBA and .202 xBA. After three strong Plus/Minus results to start the season, Detmers did get touched up a bit in his last outing against the Rays on April 17. He allowed seven hits, but limited the damage to just one earned run and a -2.64 Plus/Minus.
Using PlateIQ, the promising young Baltimore lineup has a .153 ISO and .332 wOBA against lefties this season. The Orioles’ lineup is filled with right-handed hitters, and Detmers has excelled against righties this season with a 54.1% ground ball rate and 34.4 K%.
Hitter
Xander Bogaerts ($5,000) at Colorado Rockies
Xander Bogaerts showed a glimpse of his ceiling potential yesterday with 21 DraftKings points on two hits, a home run, and two RBI against the Blue Jays. Today, the Padres head to the hitting-friendly confines of Coors Field.
On the season, Bogaerts has struggled to a .204/.275/.290 hitting line with two home runs and 10 RBI. His .261 wOBA and 25.3 hard hit % are far below his career averages. With that said, his .331 xwOBA indicated he may be performing better at the plate than his early season production shows.
Today could be another step in the right direction for Bogaerts with a matchup against Austin Gomber in Colorado. The Rockies lefty is 0-1 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts. The model likes Bogaerts as a strong high upside play.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($8,700) at Colorado Rockies
Inserting a Coors Field pitcher into a fantasy lineup is always a treacherous endeavor, but the model likes Dylan Cease as a strong option today on the main slate. Cease is coming off two straight 25+ DraftKings point starts.
The Padres righty is off to a great start with a 2-1 record and 1.99 ERA through four outings. His 0.93 WHIP is far below his 2023 rate, and his 30.0% strikeout rate is above his respectable 28.1% career average.
Colorado has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this season. The projected lineup has a .144 ISO and .300 wOBA against righties. They have a decent hit and home run projection, but the model still likes Cease to have a strong fantasy performance.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Edouard Julien ($3,700) vs. Chicago White Sox
Outside of the Rockies-Padres matchup, the Minnesota Twins surprisingly have one of the highest implied run totals on today’s main state against the White Sox. Edouard Julien is a model favorite to take advantage of the matchup.
Julien’s batting line (.179/.276/.388) is nowhere near eye-popping, but he has shown some ceiling potential with a 33-point DraftKings result on April 10 against the Dodgers where he cracked two home runs. All five of his RBI this season have come on his four home runs.
The White Sox send rookie right-hander Jonathan Cannon to the mound tonight. Cannon threw five innings in his only big league start on April 17 and allowed one earned run on three hits. Julien is an interesting low ownership dart throw today for fantasy lineups.
Ha-Seong Kim ($4,500) at Colorado Rockies
Fantasy owners will want pieces of the Padres and Rockies matchup in Colorado tonight. Kim is a little further down the salary chart from superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, but he may provide the best value in the Padres lineup.
Kim is batting .226/.347/.417 on the season with three home runs and 13 RBI. He is near league leaders with 16 walks in his first 24 games and adds scoring potential on the base paths with six stolen bags. He has five double-digit DraftKings point results in his last 10 games, including two 20-point performances.
The Padres have a sky high implied run total against Austin Gomber tonight at Coors Field. Expect a ton of ownership on the San Diego lineup. Kim is a great option to provide salary flexibility on a Padres stack or to take a solo shot on one small piece of the game.
