The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Yainer Diaz ($3,300): Catcher, Houston Astros
It’s been a torrid start to the season for Yainer Diaz. The Houston Astros catcher is coming off a two-homer performance on Monday night but is putting up some of the best metrics in the game. More importantly, Diaz is poised to replicate that success tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The free-swinging 25-year-old has been a wrecking ball early in 2024. Through a modest sample of 20 plate appearances, Diaz has a scorching 1.278 OPS, with four RBI, three runs scored, and two long fly balls. But those efforts are grounded in solid analytics. Diaz sits in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage, thanks to his tidy 12.2% barrel and 36.9% sweet spot rates.
Unfortunately for Jays’ fans, that plays into some of Jose Berrios’ most glaring weaknesses. The righty sits in the bottom half of the league in barrel rate and expected ERA, ensuring that Diaz wins those battles at the plate.
Diaz has been sensational this season, but his salary still hasn’t caught up to reflect his potential fantasy impact. That leaves a bettor-friendly advantage in rostering the stud and watching him reach his ceiling again on Tuesday.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shane Bieber ($8,800) vs. Seattle Mariners
The Cleveland Guardians have been a pleasant surprise early in the 2024 campaign. They started the season with three straight wins before dropping the last two, including Monday’s series opener versus the Seattle Mariners. But Shane Bieber gives the Guardians the best chance of reversing course on that mini-slump on Tuesday.
Bieber gassed the Oakland Athletics in his first start, tossing 6.0 shutout innings with an astounding 11 strikeouts. Granted, it’s tough to appropriately weigh that performance as it came against the lowly A’s, but it could be foreshadowing what’s to come for the former Cy Young winner.
That’s especially true for his second outing, as it comes against an underachieving Mariners side in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. Seattle has bottomed out to open the season, posting a .537 OPS with the most strikeouts in the AL.
According to our projections, Bieber is the top arm available on the main slate. He leads our median and ceiling projections and should have no problem reaching the upper limit against a Mariners side that is struggling. Bieber should climb the fantasy mountain and reign supreme on Tuesday.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,500) vs. Chicago White Sox
Make sure you bring a glove if you’re planning on sitting in the outfield at Guaranteed Rate Field tonight. The Atlanta Braves are in town, and their bevy of power hitters will be ready to take Garrett Crochet yard. Chief among those is Ronald Acuna Jr. who has maintained his MVP form early this season.
Analytically, no one can stack up next to Acuna. The four-time All-Star sits in the 100th percentile in several noteworthy advanced categories, including expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and expected weighted on-base average. That’s without even considering his 98th percentile ranking in hard-hit rate or 93rd percentile standing in barrel rate.
More importantly, Acuna Jr. has translated those metrics into tangible on-field results. The Braves leadoff man already has accumulated a .474 on-base percentage, albeit with a slightly deflated .439 slugging percentage. Altogether, that puts Acuna off expected, making him a resounding progression candidate over the coming weeks.
Acuna’s splits aren’t as pronounced versus lefties as you would expect them to be. But as a right-handed batter, he has an inherent advantage over the southpaw on the bump tonight. That should facilitate the expected progression and help Acuna Jr. reach his peak performance versus the Chi Sox.
Be sure to monitor the weather for this game leading up to lock.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Brayan Bello ($8,000) vs. Oakland Athletics
There’s a perfect storm brewing in the Bay Area as the Boston Red Sox take on the Oakland Athletics at the Coliseum. Brayan Bello got off to a terrific start, carrying the momentum into tonight’s inter-divisional affair versus a lackluster A’s side.
Bello was sensational in the season-opener against the Seattle Mariners. The third-year pro pitched 5.0 effective innings, limiting the M’s to five baserunners and two runs. He avoided solid contact most of the night, getting barrelled just once on 17 batted balls and minimizing average exit velocity to 87.6 mph.
Swinging the pendulum further in Bello’s favor is the pitcher-friendly environment of Oakland Coliseum. The MLB’s least appealing venue has been a safe haven for pitchers of any ilk, ranking with the fifth-lowest Park Factor.
As usual, the Athletics remain a bottom-feeding offensive team. Compiling a laughable .575 OPS and a paltry 11 runs through five games amplifies Bello’s potential on the main slate. We’re recommending the Red Sox ace as a staple to any lineup.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
LaMonte Wade ($3,400) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
If there’s one team the San Francisco Giants always show up for, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers. Coming off of last night’s heartbreaking defeat, we expect San Fran to come out swinging against a hittable Dodgers bullpen.
Leading the charge for the Giants is LaMonte Wade. The 30-year-old is off to a productive start this season, putting together a .850 OPS with three runs scored and a double. We like that upward trajectory to continue on Tuesday night.
Take a look at Wade’s PlateIQ profile from last season. The left-handed batter was lights out against righties, producing a .359 wOBA and a respectable .179 ISO. Those metrics are validated by his current profile, as Wade ranks in the 86th percentile in expected weighted on-base average and 70th percentile in expected slugging percentage this season.
Wade resides in the meaty part of the Dodgers lineup and is positioned for ongoing fantasy success against the Dodgers. He’s an x-factor worth including on any roster, as he rates highly in all of our value categories.
Victor Scott ($2,000) vs. San Diego Padres
This is the best value you can get on tonight’s main slate. Victor Scott made the St. Louis Cardinals roster out of Spring Training and has been a staple in the bottom part of the lineup. He projects well against San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish and should put together a memorable performance on Tuesday.
After going hit less through his first three games, Scott tallied two hits in the series finale against the Dodgers on Sunday. The rookie went 2-for-3 from the plate, landing the first double and runs scored of his career.
Darvish enters tonight’s contest with a sparkling 1.04 ERA; however, he’s overachieved relative to his underlying metrics. His expected ERA is nearly three runs higher, coming in at 3.86, and the veteran righty has been ineffective at inducing swing-and-misses. Darvish sits in the bottom half of the league in chase and whiff rate, contributing to an underwhelming analytics profile.
Scott leads our Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary categories, representing his ceiling as a true value player. Darvish hasn’t been as sharp as his traditional stats imply. We like Scott to get the better of these at-bats and exceed the implied value of his modest salary.
