The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Colt Keith ($2,600): Second Base, Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers are looking to salvage a four-game split against the Texas Rangers with a win on Thursday. Thankfully, they should expect help from unexpected places, with Colt Keith projected to make a significant impact in the series finale.
Keith broke an 0-for-12 spell on Wednesday night, getting his first big knock in three games in the bottom of the second inning. Although that inched him toward his expected metrics, there’s still plenty of room for growth in that regard.
The Tigers second baseman is operating well below expectations in virtually every category. Keith’s .197 batting average is 60 points below expected, while his slugging and on-base percentage are 178 and 45 respectively. Moreover, Keith has solid complementary metrics supporting improved efforts at the plate. Already he has posted an above-average sweet-spot rate and average exit velocity, propping up his analytics.
Texas is trotting Jack Leiter out to the mound for his major league debut on Thursday. The righty has already given up four homers in 14.1 innings pitched in Triple-A this season, making it six in 17.2 innings pitched throughout his career.That’s a good omen for Keith and the Tigers as they look to end the series with a solid offensive performance.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Ryan Pepiot ($8,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Tampa Bay Rays conclude their four-game set against the Los Angeles Angels with a Thursday afternoon matinee. The Rays send Ryan Pepiot to the mound, looking to improve on his shaky start to the campaign. Still, Pepiot’s advanced stats are better than his traditional numbers imply, letting him straddle a wide line between ceiling and value potential.
Through three starts, Pepiot is toting around an inflated 5.40 ERA; however, that’s in stark contrast to his underlying metrics. The Rays starter ranks in the 72nd percentile with a 3.04 expected ERA thanks in large part to his other supporting categories.
Specifically, Pepiot ranks in the 89th percentile in whiff rate and 85th percentile in strikeout rate. Further, he’s posting above-average metrics in expected batting average, walk rate, and fastball velocity, rounding out his analytics profile.
We’re betting that Pepiot strings together his best start of the season against the Halos. After a long series, the Angels are expected to trot out their ‘B’ crew, and with a gassed Rays bullpen, Pepiot will have plenty of runway to work with. Undoubtedly, Pepiot is the best pitcher available on Thursday’s afternoon slate.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,800) vs. Boston Red Sox
He might not be getting the same love in the MVP conversation, but Jose Ramirez is still delivering top-end efforts. The Cleveland Guardians third baseman is riding a modest four-game hit streak into Thursday’s encounter versus the Boston Red Sox. Based on our projections, that’s expected to continue into the weekend.
Thankfully, Ramirez’s power stroke is also in good working order. Two of his last five hits have gone for extra bases, including one double and one home run, which has contributed to his five RBI and two runs scored over that stretch. With his other supporting stats, Ramirez is averaging 10.0 fantasy points over the four-game sample.
That is the low-end of the spectrum in terms of expectations on Thursday’s slate. The former MVP runner-up leads our median and ceiling projections, getting to swing as a righty versus Brennan Bernardino. Throughout his career, Ramirez’s slugging percentage is .511 against southpaws, representing a 20-point jump compared to righties.
Given his tremendous form and history of getting to lefties, we expect Ramirez to make a sincere push for his fantasy ceiling on Thursday. That makes him our preferred batting option irrespective of format.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Kenta Maeda ($7,800) vs. Texas Rangers
After laboring through his first start of the season, Kenta Maeda has responded with two improved outings. That upward trajectory should continue in Thursday’s tilt versus the Rangers.
Maeda has fallen short of claiming victory in either of his past two starts, but he’s been deserving of the win. Last time out, the veteran righty tossed 6.0 innings, giving up just one earned run while striking out five. That was nearly his second straight quality start, as he fell one out short in his previous outing, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings pitched. Those three earned runs across 11.2 innings pitched represent a significantly improved ERA of 2.31 compared to his regular season benchmark of 6.00.
It might come as a slight surprise, but the defending World Series Champions have been less effective at the plate this season. Their 15 home runs are fifth-worst in the bigs, and their .386 slugging percentage puts them on the edge of the top half of the league.
With a short turnaround relative to last night’s game and after an extended series, Texas is poised for a flat performance on Thursday. That amplifies Maeda’s fantasy appeal, making him a top value on the matinee slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
David Hamilton ($2,600) vs. Cleveland Guardians
David Hamilton has been used sparingly this season, but the left-handed batting shortstop will get his chance against the always-combustible Carlos Carrasco on Thursday.
Totaling just 30 at-bats this season, Hamilton is flaunting above-average metrics in several key categories. His 47.1% hard-hit rate puts him in the top tier of MLB hitters, and he’s showing discipline beyond his years at the plate. Hamilton’s chase percentage of 14.1% would put him among the top 10% of qualified hitters had he acquired the minimum number of plate appearances.
Further, Carrasco doesn’t have the stuff to prevent Hamilton or the Red Sox from having a day. His 44.1% hard-hit rate puts him in the 26th percentile, while his chase rate, strikeout percentage, and average exit velocity come in no higher than the 34th percentile.
In the middle of the lineup, Hamilton has the chance to shine on Thursday. As our projections suggest, we expect him to make the most of that opportunity.
Andres Gimenez ($4,800) vs. Boston Red Sox
We are going back to the Red Sox vs. Guardians well for our last pick, highlighting Andres Gimenez as a potential boom candidate on the matinee slate.
Gimenez comes into this inter-divisional showdown with hits in 14 of his first 18 games. Equally as impressive, the Guardians’ second baseman has totaled five multi-hit efforts while driving in nine and coming around to score 13 more.
He’ll have the opportunity to build on that versus Bernardino and the Red Sox bullpen on Thursday. Boston relievers have combined to go 3-6 on the season, with a lackluster 4.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, all of which puts them in the bottom half of the league.
Gimenez has been productive to start the season, and he maximizes his fantasy points from the lead-off spot in the Guardians’ lineup. On a small slate, Gimenez could make a big impact at a budget-friendly salary.
