The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Andy Pages ($2,500): Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andy Pages made his MLB debut on Tuesday night, going 1-for-4 with a single. He was aggressive early, swinging at the first pitch he saw in the big leagues and notching a single. Pages has long been regarded as one of the top young sluggers in baseball, and he started hot in Triple-A, with a .371/452/.694 line to go along with five home runs.
Pages gets a matchup with Jake Irvin and the Nationals this afternoon. Irvin has been more susceptible against lefties than righties, but this isn’t a means to worry. Irvin still allowed a .333 xwOBA to righties in 2023. Pages is also batting in the heart of one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, so he should have ample RBI opportunities.
We might not see Pages this cheap going forward, as he ranks atop all batters in Points/Salary and is second in Projected Plus/Minus.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($9,300) vs. San Diego Padres
Editor’s Note: Bryse Wilson is starting for the Brewers.
Freddy Peralta isn’t the most expensive pitcher on today’s slate, but he checks in with the highest ceiling projection, and I’m firmly on board.
Peralta has been scorching hot to start the year, with just five earned runs and 26 strikeouts through three starts. His strikeouts are due to regress at some point, as he’s struck out 42% of lefties and 35% of righties thus far compared to 26% and 36% respectively last year.
Nothing is funky under the hood though, as he has almost identical swinging strike rates to both sides of the plate as last year. The downside to this matchup is that San Diego isn’t the highest strikeout team sitting at just 19.7% on the year, and Peralta’s fastball has been touched up by righties to start the year to the tune of a .273 xISO and .352 xwOBA.
This wasn’t an issue last year, so perhaps there’s room for improvement. Peralta owns the highest ceiling projection on the slate while ranking third in Projected PlusMinus and Points/Salary. He’s a strong play on Wednesday.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,200) vs. Washington Nationals
We’re returning to the Dodgers lineup, as Shohei Ohtani ranks atop the field today in ceiling projection. He’s been hot to start the year, batting .341 with four home runs and 10 RBI across 20 games.
I touched on Jake Irvin being more susceptible to lefties than righties, which plays right into Ohtani’s favor. Irvin allowed a .215 xISO and .355 xwOBA to lefties last year and is sitting at .243 and .363 marks so far this year. Ohtani had a .357 xISO and .442 xwOBA against right-handed pitchers last year and has .377 and .482 marks this year.
Irvin gives up fairly even damage across all of his pitches, but he combines to throw his fastball and curveball almost 70% of the time to lefties. Ohtani had .448/.527 and .539/509 marks against those pitches last year from righties and is at .619/.608 and .427/686 this year, albeit in a small sample size.
Any way you shake it, Ohtani looks like an absolute monster today, and he should have no trouble putting fantasy points on the board against Washington.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Steven Matz ($6,700) vs. Oakland Athletics
Targeting the Oakland Athletics with pitchers will be a common theme all year, and Steven Matz is today’s candidate. We’d like a little more strikeout upside from him, as he has just a 13% rate so far this year. However, he faces an Athletics team that is striking out at 24.1%, which is one of the highest rates in the league.
Matz has done very well limiting hard contact, and he has allowed just three earned runs through 15 innings pitched. What’s even more impressive is that two of his three starts came against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, where he had 9.2 and 7.7 DraftKings point performances. Neither of those scores are desirable, but they wouldn’t kill you, especially for Matz’s cheap salary. His other start was against the Marlins, where he cruised to 18.3 DraftKings points.
Matz ranks first among all pitchers in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus, and he gets a matchup ripe for fantasy points.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Aaron Judge ($6,100) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Facing off against Kevin Gausman would strike fear in opposing batters last year, but Gausman has been off his game to start the year, and he was pulverized by this same Yankees team less than two weeks ago.
In that game, Aaron Judge had a home run, a single, and two walks across five plate appearances, ending with 25 DraftKings points. Gausman has been getting shelled by righties, allowing a .385 xISO and .503 xwOBA. His fastball has gotten especially pounded, allowing a .405 xISO and .575 xwOBA.
This is bad news against Judge, as he posted a .406 xISO and .457 xwOBA against righties last year and .485/.506 marks against righty fastballs. Judge is a strong spend on today’s slate.
Max Muncy ($4,500 DraftKings) vs. Washington Nationals
If you can’t tell, I’m very high on this Dodgers offense today against Jake Irvin. As I’ve highlighted, lefties give him a boatload of trouble, and Max Muncy is another hard-hitting lefty in the heart of this Los Angeles order.
Muncy posted a .293 xISO and .383 xwOBA against righties last year and had above a .317 xISO against three of Irvin’s four pitches. He’s started the year a little slow, batting just .258 across 66 at-bats. This a perfect matchup for Muncy to right the ship, and he’s very affordable, coming in 15th in Projected Plus/Minus among all hitters today.
