The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tyler Freeman ($2,800): Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians are taking no prisoners on their way to the top of the AL Central standings. They’ve gotten production out of most of their lineup, but Tyler Freeman has been noticeably absent from box scores recently. We’re expecting him to bounce back from that downward spiral with an effective performance versus the Boston Red Sox.
The usual indicators support that Freeman is a progression candidate, but there are other factors at play. His actual slugging percentage of .250 is over 100 points off expected (.372) while his expected weighted on-base average and expected batting average also support growth from the Guardians outfielder.
But Freeman and the Guardians also benefit from Garrett Whitlock’s anticipated regression. The Red Sox starter is operating well ahead of his 4.19 expected ERA. The righty pitches to contact, and that was his undoing at home last year.
Combined with the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park, we have a recipe for a player poised to break out of his current funk. Freeman is a top-ranked hitter in many of our value categories, such as Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. He is worth including on any roster on Tuesday’s main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Hunter Greene ($9,000) vs. Seattle Mariners
The Cincinnati Reds pitcher has one of the best analytics profiles in the game, a fact that is hardly reflected in his 9-21 career record or his 4.86 ERA this season. Nevertheless, we expect him to benefit from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park against one of the worst hitting teams in the majors on Tuesday.
Greene’s advanced metrics put him in the upper echelon of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% chase rate puts him among the top 12% of pitchers, with a complementary 4.9% barrel rate and .170 expected batting average. In total, his dominance on the mound is best captured in his 2.49 expected ERA, putting him in the 89th percentile. That makes Greene a natural progression candidate throughout this season, as actual metrics balance out with expected.
A substantial amount of that growth can come against the Mariners in Seattle. T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest park factors across the bigs, reflecting its pleasant environment for pitchers. Moreover, the M’s have the fifth-worst OPS and third-most strikeouts in the league, validating Greene’s position atop our median and ceiling projections.
Keep an eye on Greene throughout the campaign. The flamethrower is much better than his superficial stats would make you believe, and he will throw some spectacular performances over the coming weeks to prove it.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,300) vs. Chicago White Sox
Over the first few weeks of the season, Bobby Witt Jr. has cemented himself as an AL MVP front runner. The Kansas City Royals shortstop is excelling in every facet of the game, with that success reflected in his metrics and stats. We’re expecting Witt to sustain that pace in tonight’s intra-divisional battle versus the Chicago White Sox.
The former second overall selection is absolutely raking to start the season. Witt Jr. ranks in the 100th percentile in several noteworthy advanced metrics. Specifically, he’s leading the way in expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, barrel, and hard-hit rates.
Predictably, that lofty standing has translated to tangible on-field results. Thirteen of his 22 hits have gone for extra bases, yielding 17 runs scored and 8 RBI. Included in that are his four dongs, representing his unrelenting power at the plate.
Jonathan Cannon is set to make his major league debut for the Chi Sox, and surely Witt Jr. will be part of the welcoming committee. Witt’s best splits come against righties, as evidenced by his 1.086 OPS, leaving little doubt he gets to Cannon in his first start in the bigs.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Hunter Brown ($6,500) vs. Atlanta Braves
Rest assured DFS bettors, things only get better for Hunter Brown from here. Coming off a horrendous start versus the Royals in which he set a new low mark in several historically bad major league categories, Brown should start to take steps back toward career norms. Granted, it’s coming versus one of the top-hitting teams in the bigs, but Brown is better than his salary implies.
Brown’s start to the season has been an utter disappointment. He’s given up 14 earned runs across his last 3.2 innings pitched, translating to an untenable 34.36 ERA. Obviously, that is a steep departure from his usual standing, and we expect the Houston Astros pitcher to start his descent into normal ranges starting against the Atlanta Braves.
Pitching at home could be an X-factor in Brown’s anticipated success versus the Braves. In his lone home start this season, the righty held the high-octane New York Yankees scoreless through 4.0 innings, allowing just four hits and two walks in the outing. That more closely resembles what we saw from Brown at Minute Maid Park last season, in which he gave up seven earned runs across the first 22.0 innings pitched at home, translating to a 2.86 ERA.
Expect a more resilient effort from Brown on tonight’s main slate. As is typically the case with value candidates, there’s a buy-low component that applies to backing Brown as an unsuspecting pitcher to have a good showing. That’s reflected in our algorithm, highlighting Brown as a top candidate to exceed expectations versus the Braves.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,500) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
After a down year in 2023, Fernando Tatis Jr. has recaptured some of his former glory early in 2024. Armed with a hot bat and solid analytics. the San Diego Padres outfielder is ready to maintain his current form against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Last night’s hitless performance ended a modest four-game hitting streak in which Tatis was thriving. Prior to the series opener, the two-time Silver Slugger had totaled six hits across four outings, with a homer, four RBI, and four runs. That’s been his standard throughout the campaign, as Tatis Jr. has already compiled 13 runs and RBI, with five homers and a .861 OPS.
More importantly, his underlying metrics support ongoing success as the plate. Tatis Jr. ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and strikeout rate, highlighting his disciplined approach to every at-bat.
Of course, that sterling profile is also reflected in our PlateIQ projections. Tatis Jr. heads into tonight’s showdown versus the Brew Crew with a .234 ISO and .395 wOBA, both of which put him among the top Padres’ hitters. The former All-Star is worth the investment on tonight’s slate and should end the night as one of the top fantasy performers.
Chris Taylor ($2,800) vs. Washington Nationals
Things aren’t going to get much worse for Chris Taylor. The Los Angeles Dodgers utility man has just one singular hit in 39 plate appearances, representing a disastrous .030 slugging percentage. Still, he gets to tee off of the combustible Patrick Corbin on Tuesday and has a storied history versus southpaws.
Last year, most of Taylor’s home runs, extra base hits, and run production came versus lefties. Ten of his 15 long fly balls and 17 of his 31 extra base hits were tagged off southpaws in just 138 at-bats. Consequently, his slugging percentage was nearly 100 points higher than conventional arms. It’s also worth noting that his lone hit this season came off a lefty.
Thankfully, Taylor is projected to continue that onslaught on Tuesday night. Corbin rates as one of the worst pitchers in the MLB, ranking in the 22nd percentile or worse in expected ERA, expected batting average, and whiff rate. Surely, Taylor and the rest of the Dodgers lineup benefit from getting to swat some of those meatballs into orbit. Put your apprehensions aside and roster Taylor tonight.
