The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Joey Gallo ($2,800): First Baseman, Washington Nationals
Despite a lackluster start to the 2024 season, Joey Gallo’s fantasy output has been stronger than his overall statistics. The model likes the Nationals first baseman as a bargain value tonight in Los Angeles.
Gallo is batting .140/.283/.380 on the season, but he does have four double-digit DraftKings point totals through 14 games. His three home runs and three doubles account for all but one of his seven hits on the season. The floor is low for Gallo with his sky high 41.7 K%. He sits fifth in the National League with 25 strikeouts on the year, but there is some decent upside for the price tag.
The Nationals have a difficult matchup in right-hander Tyler Glasnow for the Dodgers. Glasnow is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP so far in 2024. He’s allowed an impressive .166 xBA and .223 xwOBA on the season.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
George Kirby ($8,900) vs. Cincinnati Reds
At fourth on the salary rankings for the main slate, George Kirby lands second in ceiling potential behind only Tyler Glasnow. So far in 2024, Kirby has shown just how high the ceiling and how low the floor can be within his range of outcomes.
Kirby started the season with an impressive scoreless two-hit performance in 6.2 innings against the Red Sox on March 29. Things fell apart over his last two starts to the tune of 0.20 and -10.34 DraftKings point results. Kirby had the worst outing of his three-year big league career on April 3 when he allowed 10 hits and eight earned runs in 3.2 innings against Cleveland. He followed that up last Tuesday by giving up five earned runs and eight hits to the Blue Jays
Using PlateIQ, the Reds have a low park rating from both sides of the plate tonight in Seattle. Their young hitters have a high home run projection but a low hit and run projection. Last season, Kirby allowed a strong .288 wOBA and 44.6 ground ball rate. The model likes him to get back on track tonight with a solid performance.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,500) at Houston Astros
Although Ronald Acuna Jr. has yet to leave the yard in 2024, he still sits comfortably at the highest ceiling projection on the main slate. His versatility at the plate and on the base paths creates multiple opportunities for Acuna Jr. to add fantasy points even when that power doesn’t come.
Through 14 games, Acuna Jr. is batting .273/.385/.327 with 15 runs scored and seven stolen bases. Coming off one of the best offensive seasons in league history, Acuna Jr. has not shown the same consistency in 2024. He has seven double-digit DraftKings games on the season, with one 30+ point onslaught. He has failed to break 7.0 DraftKings points in the other half of his starts.
The Braves face 24-year-old Spencer Arrighetti of the Astros tonight who is making his second major league start. On April 10, Arrighetti allowed seven earned runs in three innings against the Royals. Expect some fireworks out of the Braves bats tonight with Acuna Jr. leading the way.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Joe Musgrove ($8,600) at Milwaukee Brewers
The veteran righty has struggled so far in 2024 for the Padres. Through three starts, Joe Musgrove is 1-2 with a 6.87 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP, along with 17 strikeouts through 18.1 innings.
Musgrove will need stark improvement on his advanced stats to impress fantasy owners, but his track record shows he can turn things around. He has allowed a .351 xBA, .430 xwOBA, and 8.40 xERA through his first three starts of 2024. In 2023, Musgrove finished among league leaders with a .274 xwOBA and 3.11 xERA.
The Brewers have four hitters above a 28.0 K% over the last two seasons, and Musgrove has shown a noticeable increase in his whiff rate this season to 31.6%. If he can keep the extra base hits down, Musgrove should put up strikeout totals tonight to help fantasy lineups.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,400) vs. Washington Nationals
What an incredible start to the 2024 campaign for Mookie Betts with his MVP-caliber numbers throughout the first 18 games. He tops the model ratings on the main slate today and boasts a +2.72 average Plus/Minus on the year.
Betts is batting an eye-popping .357/.477/.686 with a 1.163 OPS. He leads the National League with 25 hits and 20 runs scored. He sits in second place with six home runs and has amassed an incredible 1.163 OPS.
The Dodgers have one of the highest implied totals tonight as they host the Nationals. Mitchell Parker will make his major league debut on the bump for Washington. The 24-year-old was drafted in the fifth round in 2020 and logged a 19-23 record in the minor leagues, carrying a 4.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Betts and the potent Dodgers lineup will be licking their lips to welcome Parker to the big show.
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,300) at Chicago White Sox
In his third major league season with the Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. has developed into one of the best young hitters in baseball. He is on pace to shatter his career marks this year after a strong 2023 season where he broke the 30 home run threshold and notched 49 stolen bases.
Through 16 games, Witt Jr. is batting .333/.389/.697 with a total of 13 extra base hits. He has spread those around with four home runs, three triples, and six doubles. His 17 runs scored lead the American League, and he sits second with 46 total bases.
Witt Jr. now resides at the top of DraftKings salary charts with the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts, and Aaron Judge. He may be the new guy at the top, but the model loves him to make good on the price tonight against newcomer Nick Nastrini and the White Sox. Nastrini will make his major league debut tonight after 61 minor league starts where he finished at 15-10 with a 3.99 ERA.
