The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Seth Brown ($3,000): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
After a modest four-game stretch in which he went 4-for-14, Seth Brown has cooled off, going 0-for-5 over his last two appearances. However, the Oakland Athletics outfielder is projected to snap out of that funk when he takes on the Texas Rangers in this AL West series finale on Thursday.
Brown hasn’t been as ineffective as his stats imply. The 31-year-old is operating well below expected, falling nearly 200 points below his expected slugging percentage. Likewise, his barrel and hard-hit rates of 4.2% and 33.3% are lower than we typically see them, 12.7% ad 42.2% respectively, another indicator that greener pastures await Brown.
The Athletics get to tee off Jon Gray and his 6.14 ERA on Thursday. Predictably, the left-handed hitting Brown has noticeably improved metrics versus righties. Last year, his slugging percentage went from .211 versus southpaws to .444 against right-handed pitchers.
All signs point toward an elite performance from Brown on the main slate, a fact that’s reflected across our bargain categories and Brown’s .189 ISO rating in his PlateIQ profile.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($8,800) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Through two starts this season, Freddy Peralta has been his usual unhittable self. The Milwaukee Brewers’ ace has a minuscule 0.60 WHIP while striking out 15 through 11.2 innings pitched. He’s destined to continue that hot start against the Cincinnati Reds, whose free-swinging approach has already yielded impressive fantasy results for opposing pitchers.
As usual, Peralta’s success is grounded with some of the most impressive analytics in the league. His 34.9% strikeout rate and .156 expected batting average put him in the 91st and 92nd percentile respectively thanks to his nasty fastball-slider combination. Peralta mixes his pitches masterfully, inducing a 31.9% whiff rate which puts him among the top 21% of MLB pitchers.
The Reds lack the discipline to knock Peralta off his stride. So far this season, they’ve compiled the fifth-most Ks in the bigs, resulting in a 29.2% strikeout rate, and they have struck out 20 times through the first three games of the series.
Peralta remains one of the best pitchers in the MLB, and he is wielding that power unmercifully this season. As good as he’s looked, he’s still operating above his expected ERA of 2.33, meaning we could see some even better efforts coming over Peralta’s next few starts. According to our projections, he should end the day as the top-performing pitcher on the slate.
Be sure to monitor the weather for the Brewers-Reds game.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna, Jr. ($6,500) vs. New York Mets
This hasn’t been a typical start to the 2024 for Ronald Acuna, Jr. The reigning MVP has fallen well off career norms, putting together lackluster stats and analytics. Nevertheless, he can carry the momentum from his most recent start into Thursday’s NL East showdown versus Jose Quintana and the New York Mets.
Acuna Jr. made his presence felt last time out. The Atlanta Braves’ slugger went 2-for-3 at the plate with one walk, coming around to score all three times and adding three stolen bases. The resulting 31.0 fantasy points was his best of this young season, foreshadowing what to expect from him over the coming games as his metrics work back up to normal ranges.
Getting to battle Quintana at the plate should facilitate another strong showing from Acuna. The Mets hurler has been combustible on the mound, serving them up for opposing hitters this season. Quintana ranks below the 20th percentile in expected ERA and slugging percentage thanks to his disastrous 45.5% hard hit rate and 12.1% barrel percentage.
He may have a depressed expected slugging percentage, but Acuna is still finding ways to solidify the Braves’ scoring and his own fantasy profile. Moreover, we’re expecting a more robust fantasy performance against Quintana, who has one of the most underwhelming analytics profiles among all MLB pitchers. Circumstances support that Acuna is on his way to reaching his fantasy ceiling on Thursday.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Nick Martinez ($6,200) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds can fight fire with fire on Thursday, turning to their own unsuspecting starter to match wits with Peralta and the Brew Crew. Low key, Nick Martinez was one of the most underappreciated pitchers in the MLB last season. Although he hasn’t replicated that standing early, he’s poised for an improved effort on today’s main slate.
Martinez is a wiz at inducing soft contact. His average exit velocity of 84.7 mph puts him in the 98th percentile, and his six-pitch repertoire left batters confounded at the plate. Martinez used five of his six offerings at least 226 times last year, able to throw any one of them as a potential put-away pitch.
His current form doesn’t reflect his ceiling, but we like Martinez to get back on track against the Brewers. This year’s hard hit rate of 42.9% is a substantial deviation from last season’s benchmark of 29.9%, and we should start to see an improved groundball rate in helping him get there.
The Brewers’ 26.7% strikeout rate is a few points below Cinci’s but they should have an equally hard time getting to Martinez. We expect the Reds starter to put together a top-end performance, exceeding the implied value of his salary on Tuesday. That makes him our preferred value pitching option on the mound.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Marcus Semien ($5,000) vs. Oakland Athletics
Curiously, we’ve seen a slight dip in Marcus Semien’s salary for Thursday’s series finale against the Athletics. It may appear marginal, but it’s the type of small adjustment that DFS players could benefit from as they allocate the funds to other parts of their roster. We’re counting Semien and his $5,000 salary as one the of the top values on the board.
Semien churns out some of the best stats and analytics among all major league hitters.The two-time Silver Slugger seemingly does everything right at the plate. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average, expected batting average, and strikeout rate, while sitting in the 85th percentile or higher in expected slugging percentage and sweet spot rate.
More importantly, he’s translated those metrics to on-field success. Semien has a top-end .849 OPS this season, driving in 10 and coming around to score another 10.
Oakland remains the laughing stock of the MLB, and Semien can add to that misery on Thursday. His salary doesn’t reflect it, but he has one of the top ceilings on the board. Don’t pass up this value versus the A’s.
Abraham Toro ($2,500) vs. Texas Rangers
It’s been a productive week for Abraham Toro. Over his past few games, the A’s third baseman has two multi-hit efforts, representing his only six hits of the season. He’s projected to continue that onslaught with another solid effort versus Gray.
Of course, Toro’s recent upswing in production is also reflected in his underlying metrics. The Canadian has posted above-average expected batting average and slugging percentage thanks to his approach at the plate. Toro’s strikeout and walk rates put him among the top third of MLB hitters, putting him in a position to see a surge in scoring.
Toro’s recent performance has earned him a promotion to the top of the Athletics lineup. That leaves DFS players with the added advantage of rostering a lead-off man at a fraction of the salary we typically see them. Don’t overlook the value that Toro brings to today’s slate.
