MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for April 10

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Hitter

Nick Gordon ($2,100): OF Miami Marlins

Nick Gordon is off to a bad start to 2024, driving down his salary on DraftKings. He’s hitting just .190 through ten appearances while striking out more than 36% of the time — though his two home runs are encouraging.

With that said, He’s a pretty appealing regression play today. He has above-average speed, but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a dreadful .167, far below his career number of .304. While it’s reasonable to assume he’s lost a bit of speed since hitting the majors and/or prioritized putting the ball in the air — both of which reduce BABIP — it shouldn’t be that much lower.

Based on his elite Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, this seems like a case where DraftKings has overreacted to his struggles to start the season. He won’t be a foundational piece of my lineups by any stretch, but he’s a solid salary-saver in lineups built around more expensive options.

Pitcher

Ross Stripling ($6,000): Oakland A’s (at Texas Rangers)

No pitcher on today’s evening slate has a Bargain Rating over 50% on DraftKings. That means that every arm on the slate is comparatively more expensive than they are on FanDuel — but we still have to play two of them.

The closest is Stripling, who holds a 44% Bargain Rating today. He’s in a tough spot against a Rangers team implied for 5.3 runs this evening. However, he has better numbers than we typically see from a pitcher at his price point, with his ERA and all of his underlying metrics well below 4.00 to start the season (and in his career.)

Stripling probably won’t be the reason you win any contests today, but he has a reasonable shot of doing enough to not lose them for you. With the salary he frees up, he allows a ton of flexibility to get to the high-ceiling hitters (and there are many), which sometimes is all you need.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Hunter Greene ($9,300) Cincinnati Reds (vs. Milwaukee Brewers)

The Reds’ flame-throwing righty is always an interesting DFS option. He’s a classic boom-or-bust play with massive strikeout upside but an annoying habit of falling apart deeper into starts.

He’s actually seen his average fastball velocity tick up a bit this year, which is absurd considering he sat at 98.6 mph in 2023. Even more encouragingly, he’s allowed just two runs through 10.2 innings for an ERA of 2.53. While we’d love to see him last slightly deeper into his outings, it’s hard to complain considering his K/9 ratio of about 11.

It’s not the easiest matchup against a Brewers team implied for 4.3 runs. They’ve been a top-five offense through the first two weeks of the season, and it’s a hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincinnati. However, none of that matters if you can’t put the bat on the ball.

I’ll probably avoid Greene in cash games given the matchup, stadium, and “ticking time bomb” nature of his starts. However, he’s an elite GPP option, and leads the slate in K prediction and ceiling projection.

Be sure to monitor the weather for the Brewers-Reds game.

Hitter

Aaron Judge ($6,200) OF New York Yankees

Judge is also off to a slow start in 2023, but DraftKings has understandably not seen fit to lower his salary. He’s hitting just .195 with two home runs (the same number as Nick Gordon!). With all of that said, I’m not worried about Aaron Judge.

His home run to fly ball ratio is less than half his career average, while his hard contact and fly ball rates are in line with his lifetime numbers. He’s also striking out less and walking more than at any point in his career, so there’s no issue with putting balls in play.

Moral of the story: Judge has been unlucky. He has an excellent chance to turn that luck around today against Marlins lefty Ryan Weathers ($6,400). Weathers has a career ERA of 5.78, and profiles as a pitch-to-contact pitcher. He’s also a southpaw, which is great for Judge: He had an ISO of .403 against lefties last season.

This is a great spot for Judge specifically and the Yankees in general, despite his poor numbers through roughly two weeks of the season. While it’s not much of a dip, I’m buying it regardless.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.