The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Cavan Biggio ($3,000): Second Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays
Still looking to log a full season in the major leagues, Cavan Biggio may finally be on track to surpass his career-high of 111 games played if he can stay healthy. He would also like to surpass the .250 batting average mark for the first time in 2024.
Through the first four-game series of the year, Biggio notched a 20-point DraftKings game on opening day with a home run and a pair of walks. He has at least one RBI in three of the four games and has earned three free passes. He finished 2023 batting .235/.340/.370 with nine home runs and 40 RBI in 111 games.
His season-long numbers have never been eye-popping, but Biggio is a high bargain value in the model today against the Astros and right-hander Ronel Blanco. The 30-year-old has logged just 24 appearances over parts of the last two seasons. He has a 4.78 ERA and is prone to big innings, with a high walk rate and 12 home runs allowed in 52 innings last season.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sean Manaea ($7,800) vs. Detroit Tigers
Veteran Sean Manaea makes his first start of the season tonight against the Tigers. A starter for much of his eight-year career, Manaea made 37 appearances last season, with 27 of those coming out of the bullpen. He finished with a 7-6 record and a 4.44 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP.
Using PitchIQ, Manaea had a strong K% against both righties (24.1%) and lefties (28.5%) last season but gave up a disappointing 48.6 hard hit % to righties.
The Tigers lineup is expected to showcase six right-handed hitters today at Citi Field, which has a low park rating for hitters on both sides of the plate. Manaea has the highest projected ceiling on the main 7:10 p.m. slate tonight despite having the seventh-highest salary. He is a potential value play for tournament lineups.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,200) at Arizona Diamondbacks
High ceilings generally imply high salaries, and that is the case with Aaron Judge today in Arizona. He has the highest FantasyLabs projection on the main slate to go with his high-end price tag.
Off to a rough start this season, Judge has just two hits in 16 at-bats and only a double in the extra-base hit column. We know the awesome potential he wields once he gets going. Judge blasted 37 home runs in 106 games last season with a 1.019 OPS. And that was a down year compared to his historic 2022 campaign.
The Yankees hold one of the highest implied run totals on the slate today as they face 26-year-old Ryne Nelson. A right-hander from the University of Oregon, Nelson finished 8-8 with a 5.31 ERA in 27 starts last season. He had one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors and allowed a tantalizing .488 xSLG and 90.8 average exit velocity.
Judge and the Yankees have a good shot to live up to their high expectations in the desert today.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Triston McKenzie ($9,000) at Seattle Mariners
Coming off a forgettable 2023 season for Triston McKenzie that yielded just four starts and multiple injuries, the expectations are high in the aggregate model for a bounce back in his season opener today.
In 2022, his last full season, McKenzie impressed with a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 30 starts. He finished 10th in the American League with 190 strikeouts and allowed just a 5.9% walk rate.
The Mariners do have a relatively high home run projection in the model, but Seattle boasts a pitcher’s park, and McKenzie will have a lot of motivation tonight. He is a bold investment at $9,000, but the model likes him to make good for fantasy owners today against the Mariners.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Jose Altuve ($5,300) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Altuve continues to be a productive stalwart at the top of the lineup. Despite a forgettable 0-4 opening series for the Astros, he still came through with six hits, including two doubles and a home run.
Altuve notched the seventh .300+ batting season of his career last year in an injury-shortened 90-game campaign. His patience and incredible batting eye boost his fantasy floor on a daily basis as he continues to rank among the toughest hitters to strike out in the league.
The Blue Jays come to town tonight with right-hander Bowden Francis making his first big league start. Francis was solid last season in 20 relief appearances with a 1.73 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Let’s see if Altuve can take advantage of potential nerves in a big spot for Francis tonight.
Juan Soto ($6,400) at Houston Astros
Another Yankee star makes the model picks today in Arizona after a hot start to his time in pinstripes. Juan Soto came to New York to win championships, and he is showing why with eight hits and an RBI in each game of their opening series in Houston.
Soto has three straight 10+ DraftKings point games with multiple hits in each. Through his young career, he has routinely landed among league leaders in most hitting categories. In 2023, his .538 xSLG, .395 wOBA, and 93.2 average exit velocity were all top-tier.
The Yankees have a juicy matchup against the Diamondbacks’ right-hander Ryne Nelson today. Look for a Yankees offensive outburst with Soto playing a leading role.
