The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lane Thomas ($3,300): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Lane Thomas is off to a hot start this year, but we haven’t even seen him unlock his full potential. In an extremely limited sample, the former fifth-round draft pick has the second-best OPS of his career. But in reconciling his current form with underlying metrics, we’re expecting even more growth from Thomas over the coming games.
The Washington Nationals outfielder has already recorded eight hits this year, with two of those going for extra bases. Still, he’s below his career norms in hard-hit rate and barrel percentage, implying greener pastures await Thomas.
There’s no better place for a batter to improve their standing than the thin mountain air at Coors Field. That’s even more true with Kyle Freeland serving up meatballs. Freeland accumulated a 6.00 ERA at home last year, with 1.52 walks and hits per inning pitched. Conditions are ripe for Thomas, and we expect him to exceed the implied value of his salary.
Spencer Torkelson ($2,100): First Baseman, Detroit Tigers
Former first-overall selection Spencer Torkelson has gotten off the schneid over his last few outings. Throughout their series with the Houston Astros, Torkelson had four hits, including a double and a home run, with four RBIs and three runs scored. He should sustain the fine form against Chris Sale and the struggling Boston Red Sox.
The intermittency of Sale’s appearances makes it hard for the southpaw to perform. He pitched in just his 12th game since 2019 last week, and things went exactly how you’d expect. Sale lasted just 3.0 innings, allowing eight hits, three home runs, and seven earned runs.
Torkelson could add to that misery at Comerica Park on Thursday. The youngster is mashing balls to the tune of a 56.3% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel percentage. That’s starting to yield positive results, but we should see Torkelson continue that run, and his last few games could be the new norm until his bat cools off. Don’t pass up his value on the main slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kevin Gausman ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Pitching hasn’t been a strength of the Toronto Blue Jays to start the campaign. The Jays rank 19th in the MLB in team earned run average while giving up the fourth-worst opponent batting average. That makes Kevin Gausman such an integral part of the staff, as he’s been the lone standout early this year.
In his first start of the season, Gausman tossed 6.0 innings, striking out seven, and although he allowed three runs, none counted as earned, leaving him with a pristine ERA. He should be able to maintain that standard against a Kansas City Royals team that ranks last in OPS and in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts.
Gausman’s repertoire has undergone several facelifts over the years, but he does have a healthy mix of pitches. The hard-throwing righty mixed in only three offerings in his first start, including a four-seamer, splitter, and slider. Last year, three of his pitches had a whiff rate above 32.0%, and we like Gausman to get back into that rhythm against the Royals. He’s the pre-eminent pitcher available.
Hitter
Kris Bryant ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Thomas isn’t the only batter who benefits from playing at Coors Field on Thursday. Kris Bryant leads the Rockies onto the field for their first home game of the season, looking to extend his six-game hitting streak.
Bryant is making solid contact in the early part of the campaign. Three of his first eight hits have been doubles, helping Bryant establish a robust .385 OBP and .417 slugging percentage. However, we have yet to see him scratch the surface with some of his underlying analytics. The four-time All-Star is below career norms in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and expected slugging percentage. As those metrics creep up, we will see Bryant become a top-tier fantasy producer.
We’re anticipating that growth to come sooner rather than later, particularly with Jon Gray on the mound for the visitors. Gray gave up two home runs in a season-opening loss and could falter further in his old stomping grounds. According to our aggregate model, Bryant has the highest fantasy ceiling on the main slate.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Lance Lynn ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Twelve seasons into his MLB career and Lance Lynn still isn’t missing a beat. The 35-year-old opened the season with 5.2 innings against the Houston Astros, punching out six and allowing just three hits and two earned runs. He should hunker down for another solid showing at home against the tepid San Francisco Giants.
The Giants have been all-or-nothing through the first week of the season. In three losses, they’ve scored three runs, whereas, in two wins, they’ve cashed 19. Irrespective of the outcome, they’ve been a free-swinging bunch, accumulated the second-most strikeouts and an assinine 37.1% strikeout rate.
That tilts the balance in Lance’s favor. The righty induces a 43.8% whiff rate or higher on three of his five pitches, ranking in the top 5% of major league pitchers. Moreover, he can turn to any one of his offerings as a put-away pitch, compounding San Francisco’s strikeout woes.
Hitters
George Springer ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
The Jays are overcoming their pitching deficiencies with exceptional play from their offense. George Springer has been a tertiary contributor, but he should get into the action against Jordan Lyles.
Springer opened the campaign with five hits against the St. Louis Cardinals, recording just two more in the five games that followed. We continue to see Springer’s metrics fall on the elite end of the spectrum, and practically that played out in the first game of the season. A similar effort is anticipated on Thursday.
Perennially, Lyles rates as one of the worst analytics pitchers in the league. The righty has given up a hard-hit percentage above 41.3% in four of the last five years. Additionally, opposing batters have a 10.1% barrel rate since the start of last year.
Springer has a few pro trends supporting improved production, and that’s reflected in his overall projections. It should all come together for him against the Royals.
Luis Robert Jr. ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
Luis Robert Jr’s effort last year was analogous to the Chicago White Sox as a whole. It was an underwhelming effort that resulted in a disappointing conclusion. But things are on the up-and-up for Robert and the White Sox, and that’s reflected in our projections.
Robert’s previous career-best OPS was .963 in 2021; however, he’s exceeding that benchmark in the early part of this season. The former international free agent has nine hits in his first six games, with two doubles and two long balls. That production correlates with strong output, with the White Sox outfielder knocking in three and coming around to score five times.
The White Sox get to tee off on Alex Wood, who sat in the bottom half of the MLB in virtually every analytics category. Thursday’s matinee is Wood’s first start of the season. Robert Jr. and the White Sox will ensure it’s a forgettable one.
