The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Austin Slater ($2,800): Outfielder, San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants outfielder Austin Slater made his triumphant debut earlier this week after missing the first four weeks of the season with a hamstring injury. Slater showed no signs of rust in the win, going 2-for-3 at the top of the order. We’re anticipating another strong showing from him in Wednesday’s clash against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals send Matz to the mound for the third outing of a four-game set. The southpaw has been mostly ineffective this year, going 0-3, with a 6.55 ERA while ranking in the 34th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected earned run average, and average exit velocity. Slater could add to those woes on Wednesday.
Slater has benefited from the righty vs. lefty matchup throughout his career. The 30-year-old has robust splits against left-handers, compiling a .470 slugging percentage, with 20 home runs, 78 RBI, and 86 runs scored, all of which are superior to his stats versus righties.
Moreover, Slater comes into tonight’s slate underpriced, representing one of the best bargains available.
Tucupita Marcano ($2,200): Second Base/Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
Another day, another Pittsburgh Pirates batter who starts the day undervalued. This time it’s Tucupita Marcano who is projected to easily surpass the implied value of his modest salary.
The Pirates utilityman comes into Wednesday’s showdown against the Los Angeles Dodgers on a modest three-game hitting streak. Marcano is 4-for-11 over that stretch with a double, run scored, and a stolen base, highlighting his fantasy versatility. However, he has the added advantage of taking to the field against Tony Gonsolin, who has yet to test his stuff against MLB batters this year.
Gonsolin has been on the shelf with an ankle injury and will make his season debut against the Pirates. More concerningly, the southpaw hasn’t been stretched out yet, as he was recalled early to stabilize an underwhelming Dodgers staff. Gonsolin is at a disadvantage against a hard-hitting Pirates squad, and Marcano represents a low-cost option at the plate, poised to continue his torrid pace and turn the fantasy tides.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sandy Alcantara ($9,900 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Atlanta Braves
Biceps tendonitis appears to have derailed the start of Sandy Alcantara’s seasons. Nevertheless, the Miami Marlins are confident their ace is ready for action after skipping his last turn in the rotation. The extra rest affords Alcantara the time he needed to resolve the injury and come out sharp against the Atlanta Braves.
Alcantara continues to deliver elite stuff from the bump. The reigning Cy Young Award winner ranks in the 95th percentile in fastball velocity and induces a 21.4% whiff rate on his 4-seamer. Likewise, he’s above last year’s benchmarks on swing-and-misses on his changeup and slider, illustrating the nastiness of all of his offerings.
More importantly, Alcantara is earmarked for progression. The right-hander’s expected ERA is almost a full run below actual, and his 3.49 FIP implies he’s not getting much defensive help.
We’re anticipating significant growth from Alcantara over his coming games as his actual metrics improve to reflect his efforts on the mound.
He leads our median and ceiling projections and is one of our top play on tonight’s slate.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
It’s been a tepid start to the campaign for Fernando Tatis Jr, but that’s to be expected after missing all of last season with a wrist injury and subsequent suspension. Still, we like him to continue his climb back to fantasy relevancy Wednesday against an overachieving Drew Smyly.
After going 0-for-5 in his season-opener a week ago, Tatis Jr. has recorded hits in four straight appearances. The two-time Silver Slugger has one home run, one RBI, and two runs scored across that modest stretch, maintaining his spot atop the San Diego Padres’ order. He continues to make solid contact, with a 50.0% hard-hit rate and ideal launch angle of 13.1. Altogether, Tatis Jr. should sustain, if not improve, his current metrics, albeit with more productive at-bats.
There’s a good chance he takes a few big steps forward against Smyly and the Chicago Cubs. Smyly has vastly overachieved relative to career benchmarks. The lefty typically hovers in the bottom half of the league in most advanced metrics but is on the other end of the spectrum early this season. Smyly has outlasted his current form and is a regression candidate over his coming starts.
Waves collide in this one as Tatis Jr’s improved play combines with Smyly’s anticipated regression, resulting in what should be a first-class performance from the Padres’ cornerstone.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Hunter Brown ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
It’s been a hell of a run, but last night’s performance could be foreshadowing what to expect from the AL East leaders over the next few weeks. The Rays are hitting well above expected levels, playing into the hands of Hunter Brown and the Houston Astros.
Low-key, Brown has been one of the Astros’ best pitchers early in 2023. Through four starts, the second-year professional is 2-0, with a 3.09 ERA and 9.3 K/9 rate. Further, he has the metrics to back up a sustained effort. Hunter’s 3.57 expected ERA puts him in the 66th percentile, and .328 slugging percentage ranks in the 72nd bandwidth. What’s even more impressive is that his last three starts have come against division leaders (Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, and Atlanta Braves), illustrating his ability to do it against the best.
Based on our 50/50 aggregate projections, Brown rates as one of the best available on both platforms. He should end the day with one of the best stat lines and help the Astros walk away with the series win.
Hitters
Shohei Ohtani ($6,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Shohei Ohtani is getting no love on FanDuel, coming into tonight’s AL West clash against the Oakland Athletics with a surprising $3,700 salary. Still, he brings a ton of fantasy upside to both platforms and should shine in this divisional battle.
Although it’s not yet reflected in his traditional stats, the former MVP remains one of the pre-eminent hitters in the game. Ohtani’s hard-hit rate and expected slugging percentage put him in the 89th percentile, ranking in the 87th percentile in expected weighted on-base average and 99th percentile in max exit velocity.
Tangibly, this is leading to improved on-field results as his actual slugging percentage is creeping up to its expected level. Three of Ohtani’s last five hits have gone for extra bases, including two homers and a double. That pace should continue against Luis Medina, who is set to make his major league debut.
Ohtani is sure to make it a warm welcome as he lives up to his lofty expectations on Wednesday.
Xander Bogaerts ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Elite hitting shortstops are a fantasy commodity, which the Padres have in spades. As noted above, rostering Tatis Jr. comes with obvious advantages on Wednesday, but so does his teammate Xander Bogaerts.
Bogaerts has been a stabilizing force in the heart of the Padres’ lineup. The five-time Silver Slugger leads the team in on-base and slugging percentages, with marks of .421 and .538, respectively. Predictably, this puts him atop the runs scored, hits, and home run categories, with his 12 RBI coming up just one short of Matt Carpenter for top spot on the Padres.
We’re anticipating another top-tier effort from Bogaerts, particularly with Smyly dealing in Chicago. As usual, wind direction could be a factor in this NL matchup, but irrespective of weather, Bogaerts should continue his production on Wednesday.
