The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Victor Robles ($2,800): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Robles has turned things up a notch over the last couple of weeks. He’s averaging a +2.57 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games with three double-digit DraftKings point performances over his last six outings.
He is purely an uptrend bargain play today as his career totals and advanced stats do not show much power. His average exit velocity and hard-hit % are among the lowest in the league.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Connor Joe ($3,500): Outfielder, Colorado Rockies
In his first full big-league season, Joe’s FanDuel salary has steadily increased with his consistent production.
Joe is batting .272 with four home runs in 2022 and had a 12-game hit streak snapped on April 26. He has six double-digit FanDuel point totals in his last 12 games.
With his salary down $400 today, he could be a strong low-ownership bargain play against Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, who has shut down offenses thus far in 2022 with a 1.27 ERA.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Yu Darvish ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
Safe from the projected weather impacts, Darvish has put together three quality starts in a row after a dreadful game on April 12, where he gave up nine earned runs in less than two innings of work.
His season totals are misleading with the one outlier start. His strong .275 wOBA is below his career average, but he does need to pick up the strikeouts. His 22.5 K% is his lowest rate since 2016.
The Marlins have one of the lower implied run totals on the slate tonight. Darvish may be in line for his first top-end performance of the season.
Hitter
Yordan Alvarez ($5,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Alvarez has excelled this season at the plate, especially against right-handed pitching, with a .557 wOBA.
He has seven double-digit DraftKings point games in his last 11 and is in the top 1% of hitters in xwOBA and average exit velocity this season, according to Baseball Savant.
He gets Tigers rookie right-hander Beau Brieske tonight in Houston. Don’t expect the Astros to give him a warm welcome to the league. Alvarez is a strong upside play in all formats.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Seattle Mariners. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
In a day full of weather uncertainty, the Angels provide some safety from the skies and some upside for your lineups.
Perennial all-star Mike Trout leads the American League in OPS+ and runs scored. Despite his .316 batting average and 1.118 OPS, he has hit a bit of a cold stretch with just one positive Plus/Minus game in his last seven.
Shohei Ohtani has the highest projected points and ceiling on the slate, but the two-way star has struggled at the plate this season. He is batting just .230 with a 10.7 barrel % in 2022.
Veteran third baseman Anthony Rendon had his first 20-point game of the season on Wednesday as he looks to improve his .231 batting average.
Rounding out the stack are two young players on hot streaks. Taylor Ward is among the league leaders in wOBA, walk percentage, and xSLG. Jared Walsh has two straight games with multiple hits and a home run.
The Angels have a plus matchup against 23-year-old Nationals right-hander Joan Adon. Adon is 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA on the year.
