The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lane Thomas ($2,500): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Colorado Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber probably could have picked a better team to pitch for. Few pitchers can tame the thin mountain air of Coors Field, let alone a soft throwing lefty. The Washington Nationals have a few right-handed bats that match up well with Gomber, but none of them come at a bigger discount than Lane Thomas.
The Nats outfielder has a modest $2,500 salary on Wednesday’s slate, ranking among the top bargain options on the slate. Thomas is trending upward over his recent sample, going 3-for-8 over his past couple of games with two runs scored and two runs batted in.
We’ve seen Thomas make solid contact this seaon, ranking in the top half of the league in hard-hit percentage. Moreover, his season-long metrics remain below his career norms, implying further progressions should be expected. Similarly, Thomas’s slugging percentage this season is below expected, implying that we should see sustained production from the 26-year-old.
Gomber got tagged to the tune of eight hits, four walks, and five runs in his first home start of the season. Thomas could extend that misery in this hitter-friendly matchup.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Rowdy Tellez ($2,500): First Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
Low-key, Milwaukee Brewers’ first baseman Rowdy Tellez could be the x-factor that pushes the team to new heights in 2022. Tellez is in his first full season with Milwaukee and is fitting in just fine. The former Toronto Blue Jays slugger should continue mashing the ball against the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday.
Tellez has a scorching bat, ranking in the 98th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 97th percentile in barrel percentage. More importantly, he’s translated that to fantasy success, ranking second on the team in runs, runs batted in, and home runs.
For some reason, Tellez enters Wednesday night’s slate as an affordable $2,500 salary. The left-handed batting Tellez matches up well against right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and is coming in with home runs in two of his past three games.
Given the disconnect between his salary and fantasy ceiling, Tellez is the top-rated bargain in THE BAT X Projected Plus/Minus and a worthy inclusion on any FanDuel lineup.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox ace Lucas Giolito is off to a tough-luck start to the season. The former All-Star is 0-1 through three starts, despite his sparkling 2.57 earned run average. Still, the 27-year-old remains a top-tier fantasy pitching option with his elite strikeout metrics.
Giolito has 22 punchouts through 14.0 innings for a 14.1 K/9 rate. His metrics get even better, as the right-hander ranks in the 97th percentile in strikeout rate, sitting down batters 37.9% of the time, inducing a whiff percentage that places him in the top 5% of all major league pitchers.
The Chicago Cubs have a free-swinging mentality, sitting in the bottom half of the league with 202 strikeouts, equaling 8.78 per game. They have looked even worst recently, with 39 Ks over their past three games, with at least 12 strikeouts in each contest.
Giolito could have a season’s-best performance against the Cubs and has the highest fantasy ceiling in THE BAT X model and the FantasyLabs projections.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
If you haven’t already, you may want to pay attention to what Aaron Judge is doing for the New York Yankees right now. The two-time Silver Slugger is playing like a man on fire, carrying an eight-game hitting streak into Wednesday night’s AL East battle against the Toronto Blue Jays, sending balls into orbit.
Of his 13 hits over his eight-game sample, the Yankees right fielder has sent eight of those for extra bases, including six home runs. That has elevated his metrics to the most prestigious standard, with Judge in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and expected slugging percentage.
There’s no reason to think he slows down on Wednesday, as the right-handed batting outfielder gets an advantageous matchup against southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi is having a forgettable start to the season, pitching to a 5.98 expected earned run average and .508 expected slugging percentage.
Judge ranks near the top of our algorithm and could surpass his ceiling projections against the Jays.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
We’ve discussed the merits of including Milwaukee Brewers slugger Rowdy Tellez against Vladimir Gutierrez and the Cincinnati Reds. He’s also part of our slate-leading stack as the Brewers look to make it seven wins over their last eight games.
Tellez is projected in the five-spot on Wednesday night, and he’ll have the opportunity to move baserunners as the four hitters ahead of him can get on base.
Kolten Wong and Willy Adames normally start things off for Milwaukee. Wong is fourth on the team in on-base percentage, setting the table for Adames, who leads the team in runs, runs batted in, and home runs.
Two former MVPs are projected to bat three and four, with Christian Yelich and Andrew McCutchen. Both players are having mildly productive starts to the season, but both are expected to progress. McCutchen’s actual slugging percentage is .123 lower than expected, while Yelich is .128 below expected.
A matchup against Gutierrez and his 20.7 average launch angle should help Yelich and McCutchen get back on track, while Adames, Tellez, and Wong should get to the Reds’ pitcher early and often. The Brewers are the top-rated stack in our projections.
