The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Cesar Hernandez ($3,500): Second Baseman, Washington Nationals
Let’s go straight to Coors Field for our DraftKings value with Washington Nationals leadoff hitter Cesar Hernandez. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in six of his last seven games. Hernandez has also recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight games. There is still room for a ceiling, as, despite his success, Hernandez still has a .288 wOBA which is the worst he has had in eight seasons.
Playing in Coors Field will always boost numbers, especially when playing for an away team where you are guaranteed nine innings. The Nationals will face German Marquez, who has given up four earned runs in three-straight starts. Marquez has allowed a career-high 1.71 HR/9, 1.52 WHIP, and a 40.3% hard-hit rate. The Nationals are implied for 4.9 runs, which is the second-highest on the slate.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Jesse Winker ($2,600): Outfielder, Seattle Mariners
Jesse Winker feels like a steal on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel for our in-house projections and ranks fourth in THE BAT. The Seattle Mariners are one game above .500 as they are finishing up their nine-game road trip. Winker has been a little boom or bust during this stretch, but he did show upside with 22.2 FanDuel points just two games ago.
The Mariners will face right-hander Christian Javier who is slowly ramping up his pitch count. He allowed his first earned runs of the season in his last start against the Rangers, where he threw a season-high 84 pitches. Javier has an impressive 0.90 WHIP and a 31.4% strikeout rate. Throughout his short career, he has really struggled with left-handed batters, which is perfect for Winker, who has a .397 wOBA and a .232 ISO against right-handed pitchers for his career.
The Mariners are implied for 3.9 runs, so Winker may be best as a one-off.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Brandon Woodruff ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The savings we get on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Brandon Woodruff is making him the highest owned pitcher on the entire slate. He has been very boom or bust in his four starts to start the season. In the opener, he allowed seven earned runs as he couldn’t complete four innings. However, two starts ago, he struck out nine and allowed one hit in six innings. It is all about the matchup, and this is a good one.
The Reds have a slate-low 2.8 implied run total as the Brewers are a -290 favorite to win this game. That should come to no surprise as the Red are 3-19 this season! Sitting at that record shows how inept the Reds are on offense as they have a league-worst team wOBA and rank fourth-highest in strikeout rate.
This is a matchup that Woodruff can exploit. He has the highest ceiling among pitchers on the slate.
Hitter
Byron Buxton ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles
The Minnesota Twins have won 10 of their last 11 games and are led by Byron Buxton, who if healthy, is one of the best players in the league. Buxton leads the league with a .439 ISO as he has clobbered seven home runs in only 62 plate appearances. He also has a career-high .458 wOBA and a 210 wRC+. His stats are off the charts to start the season, and for the moment he has remained healthy.
The Twins have a mediocre 4.0 implied run total as they face Orioles left-hander Bruce Zimmerman. After pitching 14 games last season, Zimmerman has pitched very well in his four starts this season. He has gotten a little lucky as his xERA is 3.66, while his actual is 0.93. However, he has done a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark with a 0.47 HR/9. Despite Zimmerman’s success, Buxton is one of the league’s best hitters. He has the second-highest ceiling in THE BAT and is the highest for our in-house projections.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Coors Field is always a good source to fill up the scoreboard. The Colorado Rockies have played 13 home games to nine road games but have scored 76 runs at home compared to 28 on the road this season. That is a massive difference! They are implied for a slate-high 5.9 runs tonight.
This 1-5 Rockies stack is the highest projection in THE BAT, but it does give up all three outfield positions. These five players will be difficult to ignore tonight.
Leading off for the Rockies is Connor Joe, who has picked up right where he left off last season. He already has half as many home runs as he had last season and has a .389 wOBA. Joe also has steal upside as he has one steal and two attempts, which is an improvement from zero last season.
Charlie Blackmon has fallen off a little bit but still has the upside to pose a threat in the two-hole. He has a higher wOBA and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers in his career. The strikeout rate may be increasing, but the power is still there as he is second on the team with a .230 ISO.
In his first season with the Rockies, Randal Grichuk has started off the season very hot. He leads the team in average, on-base percentage, and BABIP while ranking second in wOBA. 10 of his 14 RBI have come at Coors Field. It is safe to say he is loving his new home ballpark.
Another player who has gotten very comfortable playing at home is CJ Cron. He leads the National League with eight home runs as he has started off the season with a career-high .417 wOBA and a ridiculous .365 ISO. He has six home runs in 50 plate appearances at Coors Field. He is on fire!
Rounding out this five-man stack is Ryan McMahon, who is in his sixth year with the Rockies. He is also off to a great start averaging a career-high .360 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. Similar to Blackmon, McMahon has had a ton of success against right-handed pitchers, so try to include him in your stack.
Right-hander Erick Fedde is going to have his work cut out for him in this road matchup against the Rockies. He has allowed at least two earned runs in each start this season. This will be the second time Fedde has started a game in Coors Field. In his 2018 outing, he allowed four earned runs and two home runs in only four innings of work. He has allowed a career-low exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but it won’t take much for these balls to fly out of Coors Field if Fedde is throwing meatballs across the plate.
