The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Michael Lorenzen ($7,100): Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels
The late matchup in Seattle tonight between the Angels and Mariners has two strong pitching buys on the slate.
Lorenzen is the 14th most expensive pitcher on the slate and has impressed this season with a 6-3 record and 3.45 ERA. He is allowing a career-best .277 wOBA and has a +1.95 Plus/Minus on the year.
He is worth the start tonight as a low-dollar pitching option if you choose to spend your money on big-time hitters instead.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Mookie Betts ($3,700): Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers
He has to produce at some point, right?
Betts’ salary has dropped $700 since June 8 as he has just two hits in 30 at-bats during that stretch. At the price, he is entering bargain territory for the potential pop his bat provides.
On the year, Betts is still in the top 10% of hitters in wOBA, according to Baseball Savant. He had an incredible May, batting .342 with 12 home runs and 27 RBI.
Once he breaks out of this recent slump, he should return higher production than this low salary. Maybe that starts tonight.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Robbie Ray ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Ray may surprise you as a ceiling play with his 2022 statistics. He is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA for the Mariners as he is struggling to defend his American League Cy Young Award from last season with Blue Jays.
A potential bargain, Ray has the highest projected ceiling on the slate tonight and the eighth-highest salary for pitchers.
He has delivered five 20+ DraftKings point results in his 13 starts this season. The Angles have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate. Ray is a solid option tonight to get back on track toward last season’s success.
Hitter
Rafael Devers ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Devers has posted the best stretch of his career thus far in 2022. He leads the majors with 85 hits, 23 doubles, 53 runs, and 158 total bases. His .329 batting average is 50 points higher than his finish last year.
For fantasy purposes, Devers has also provided strong returns. He has four 18+ DraftKings point performances in his last five games.
He will face veteran Adam Wainwright for the Cardinals tonight. Devers has a .418 wOBA and .329 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. It’s all systems go for Devers in your lineup tonight.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Phillies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.
The Phillies have one of the highest implied run totals tonight at the Nationals in the second game of their Friday doubleheader.
Bryce Harper is the headliner on this stack as he racks up league-leading numbers again in 2022. He is in the top-1% of the league with a .442 xwOBA and .671 xSLG this season, according to Baseball Savant. He has a +3.09 Plus/Minus over the last month.
The rest of the stack is comprised of mid-priced hitters with upside.
With two 30+ DraftKings point games in his last seven, Rhys Hoskins has shown the highest ceiling on the team as of late. He has an incredible +8.30 Plus/Minus over the last 10 games and the highest projection for first basemen on the slate.
Not far behind, Kyle Schwarber has also been on a recent tear. He’s batting .302 with seven home runs and 14 RBI thus far in June after batting just .196 in May.
J.T. Realmuto has dipped in price over the last week. He has the lowest ceiling on the stack but could provide some consistent production in a stack filled with high-upside plays.
Finalizing the stack, Nick Castellanos is well below his career averages this season at the plate. He needs to find his rhythm in his first season with the Phillies. He has a -0.96 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Phillies face right-hander, Paolo Espino of the Nationals, tonight in Washington. Espino is 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 30.1 innings this season. He gave up 19 home runs and a 1.213 WHIP last season.
