The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Harrison Bader ($2,900): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
Bader’s salary has dipped below $3,000 into bargain territory. He has five multi-hit performances in his last nine games and a +1.26 Plus/Minus over the last month.
The National League leader with 14 stolen bases on the year is currently hitting a career-high .271. He won’t mash the ball out of the park often, but his speed and low K% give him a consistent floor for the end of your lineup.
The Cardinals face Reds’ right-hander Luis Castillo tonight at home. Castillo is 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA in six starts this season.
Bader is an intriguing one-off play for your tournament teams on Friday.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500): Outfielder, New York Yankees
Yes, Stanton has just two hits since returning from injury on June 4, but he still managed a 21.70 FanDuel performance in that stretch.
The ultimate boom-or-bust option, Stanton, is among league leaders with a .421 xwOBA and 57.0 hard-hit % while striking out at a high rate.
He was pulled from yesterday’s lineup after some fielding concerns. Assuming he is back in the starting order tonight, Stanton will anchor the lineup with the highest implied run total on the slate. He is worth the shot in all formats for his power upside.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Jose Berrios ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) at Detroit Tigers
With the highest ceiling on the slate for pitchers and the 14th highest salary, Berrios is a great value option tonight in Detroit.
Despite his 4-2 record, Berrios has struggled on the mound this season with a .406 xwOBA and 6.55 xERA. He’s coming off a solid seven-inning start against the Twins and has a long history of sub-4.00 ERA season totals.
The Tigers have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate tonight against Berrios and the Blue Jays. He is a strong play tonight for a breakout performance.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The 24-year-old Braves superstar is off to an incredible first two months of the 2022 season. He is among league leaders in wOBA, hard-hit %, and average exit velocity.
Acuna Jr. has two 28+ DraftKings point performances in his last four games and a +3.59 Plus/Minus over his last 10.
He is worth the price tag tonight against impressive Pirates rookie Roansy Contreras. Contreras has a 1.93 ERA in three starts this season.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Blue Jays. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.
Bo Bichette has consistently produced over the last couple of weeks with a +2.27 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Though he hasn’t posted a 20+ point DraftKings performance since May 21, he has multiple hits in eight of his last 14 games and one of the highest exit velocities in the league.
Both George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. land in the top five highest projections on tonight’s slate, despite being outside the 10 highest salaries.
Springer’s salary has jumped $900 since June 3. His last three games have been disappointing, but his bat speed makes him a dangerous hitter every night. He has finished in the top 7% of hitters in max exit velocity every season since 2015.
Speaking of hard hitters, Guerrero Jr. has not come close to his insane 2021 batting numbers this season. His strong hard hit % would suggest his .243 batting average will take an upswing soon.
Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez finish off the stack as low-budget lineup fillers on uptrends. In his first season with the Blue Jays, Chapman has a +3.03 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Hernandez is just a smidge lower with a +2.71 Plus/Minus over his last 10 outings.
The Blue Jays have a juicy matchup tonight against Tigers’ right-hander Elvin Rodriguez. The 24-year-old rookie is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA in 16 innings this season. He is near the bottom of major league pitchers this season in allowing a .435 wOBA and 92.7 average exit velocity.
