The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Mike Moustakas ($2,100): Third Baseman, Cincinnati Reds
Returning to the lineup from injury last night, Moustakas had his best production of the season with two hits, one walk, and 14 DraftKings points. At his price tag today, daily fantasy players would be thrilled with a repeat performance today.
Before the injury, Moustakas was struggling at the plate this season with a .170 wOBA, but he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus today for third baseman.
With the two highest implied run totals on the slate, the thin Colorado air should provide some extra upside potential for Reds and Rockies players. Moustakas is a great low-salary lineup filler.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Manny Machado ($4,000): Third Baseman, San Diego Padres
Machado lit up the Reds this week with nine hits in the three-game set. He already has 10 double-digit FanDuel point performances this season, including each of the last three games and six of his last nine.
The league leader in hits and runs scored this season, Machado has posted an outstanding .470 wOBA and 1.070 OPS.
Stay in the flames with Machado today against Pirates right-hander Zach Thompson. Thompson has struggled to get going this year with a 10.80 ERA in his first three starts.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Giolito has posted two positive Plus/Minus performances in his first two starts, despite only throwing four innings in each outing.
He sustained an abdominal strain on Opening Day which caused him to miss a start. He returned to the mound on Sunday and held the Twins to just one run in four innings of work while striking out nine.
His 1.13 ERA is not sustainable, but Giolito is off to an incredible start with 15 strikeouts in eight innings, and the Angels have the lowest implied run total on the slate. He may still be held from a full workload, but Giolito is still a solid lineup option today.
Hitter
Brandon Lowe ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Lowe’s DraftKings salary has dipped below $5,000 for the first time this season. He started off hot with three 19+ DraftKings point games in his first seven but quickly cooled off. He has just one positive Plus/Minus game in his last 12.
His .269 wOBA and 28.8 sweet spot % are well below his career marks, though he has posted a 112.2 max EV, a top-9% mark in the league according to Baseball Savant.
The 27-year-old may be entering bargain territory for a contrarian play. He has one of the top ceilings on the slate, though he does face Minnesota’s Dylan Bundy, who has allowed just one run in 15.1 innings this season.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
THE BAT features the Dodgers at the top of their stack models. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman continue to land near the top of ceiling projections giving this stack strong boom potential.
Betts is beginning to find his groove with four positive Plus/Minus games in his last seven. His .209 average and .313 wOBA show his rocky start, but his high walk percentage seems to indicate he is seeing the ball well. The next step is hitting it well too.
Turner has been a consistent performer in the early going. He has hit safely in 16-of-18 games this season but has not scored more than 10 DraftKings points in his last eight games. He’s among the league leaders in RBI and provides a solid foundation in the stack.
Batting .310 on the season, Freeman has shown the most boom potential in the stack. He has eight double-digit DraftKings point performances in 18 games with a +2.72 Plus/Minus over his last 10 outings.
Catcher Will Smith and third baseman Justin Turner complete the stack. Smith has surprised this season at the plate. He is in the top 5% of the league in both xSLG and xwOBA, according to Baseball Savant.
Turner has the highest projected points and ceiling of any third baseman on the slate.
The Dodgers will face left-hander Tyler Alexander of the Tigers who is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in three starts this season. This stack has a lot of upside potential in a plus matchup.
