The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jose Miranda ($2,100): First Baseman, Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins will have a chance to put up runs against Spenser Watkins and the Baltimore Orioles tonight. We’ll find the usual suspects atop the Twinkies’ batting order, but you’ll find a diamond in the rough if you look further down the lineup.
First baseman Jose Miranda is THE BAT X Projected Plus/Minus leader on tonight’s slate, with an elite fantasy ceiling but a paltry $2,100 salary. Superficially, Miranda’s stats aren’t great, but there are a few underlying metrics supporting growth from Baseball America’s 90th-ranked prospect.
Miranda’s Sweet Spot percentage is creeping up, as is his average exit velocity, suggesting that his timing is improving after just three major league starts. Similarly, his expected slugging percentage is almost .150 points better than his actual slugging, implying that Miranda is a progression candidate.
Watkins tends to get hit hard, ranking in the bottom half of the league in nearly every advanced category. This is an ideal spot for Miranda to gain some confidence in that batter’s box.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Jorge Soler ($2,900): Outfielder, Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins slugger Jorge Soler is off to a tepid start this season, slugging just .315 through his first 92 at-bats, decreasing his perceived fantasy value. Now is the time to back Soler, as he matches up well against San Diego Padres probable starter Nick Martinez.
Martinez gives up more solid contact than most pitchers in the MLB. The 31-year-old ranks in the bottom 8% of pitchers in expected slugging percentage, barrel percentage, and expected earned run average.
That’s a good omen for Soler, who remains below his expected values and career averages in nearly every offensive metric. Lately, the Marlins’ outfielder is making infrequent contact, recording just four hits over his past eight games. However, two of those hits have been home runs.
Martinez isn’t fooling anybody with his stuff these days, which should help Soler get his season back on track. Soler comes at a discounted price tonight, and it’s value not worth passing up.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
Despite his 1-3 record to start the campaign, Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola remains an elite pitching option. The former All-Star has run into some bad luck early this season, but his metrics support that greener pastures await.
Even though his earned run average has crept up over the past couple of seasons, Nola continues to use his five-pitch mix to keep batters guessing. That has helped him to the best expected batting average of his career, with his current .190 mark well below his career average of .224. We’re seeing the same things in expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate. Sustained production will help Nola get his earned run average back down towards average.
Although the results aren’t going his way, Nola remains a strikeout menace. The 29-year-old has maintained his 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings from last season, making it four straight seasons in double-digits.
Nola has metrics working in his favor that have not yet yielded improved on-field results. We’re expecting ongoing production from Nola with results starting to go his way.
Hitter
Bryce Harper ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
We are staying on theme with our ceiling hitter, with Phillies outfielder and reigning MVP Bryce Harper the fantasy producer worth keying in on.
So far this season, Harper has the best hard-hit rate of his career at 52.9%, which is positively impacting average exit velocity. Still, the two-time Silver Slugger remains below career averages in slugging and on-base percentage and should progress over his coming games.
It’s been an impressive start to the season for Taijuan Walker, who has allowed just two hits and two walks through his first 7.0 innings of the season. However, that production is unsustainable, and the left-handed batting Harper will help push those metrics back within normal ranges. In general, the Phillies’ implied team total of 4.8 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate.
Harper is among the best options in THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections, making him our preferred batting option on Thursday’s slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Houston Astros. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Astros have been clubbing the ball recently, winning three straight games and totaling 14 runs along the way. According to our projections, we should expect that to continue against the Tigers on Thursday.
Yordan Alvarez is propping up the top of the order early this year with his eight home runs and .634 slugging percentage. He’s joined by Alex Bregman, who bats ahead of Alvarez in the three spot and leads the Astros in runs batted in.
Of course, those gaudy offensive metrics wouldn’t be possible without Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley, who project as the one and two hitters, with on-base percentages of .308 and .330, respectively. That’s not to diminish their power though, as both players have combined for four home runs and eight extra-base hits so far this season.
Yuli Gurriel rounds out the top five hitters and is worth including with your Astros stack. Gurriel is driving the ball with 11 of his 18 hits going for doubles, resulting in five runs batted in and six runs scored.
Detroit, we have a problem.
