The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
A.J. Pollock ($3,100): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will go for the series win against the Red Sox on Thursday night, looking to build off last night’s 3-1 victory. Offense should feature prominently in the matchup, and A.J. Pollock could surprise with a big outing.
The veteran outfielder has been held hitless over the past couple of games but is showing signs of improvement over his recent sample. Before the two-game slide, Pollock had recorded hits in six straight games, with three of those coming as multi-hit efforts.
Still, Pollock remains below his expected slugging percentage this season, with his actual rating of .356 below the expected .471 mark. The former All-Star is getting barrel to ball 11.4% of the time and should start to reap the rewards of his solid contact.
Red Sox pitcher Michael Wacha can serve them up, giving up an average exit velocity of 90.3 miles per hour, ranking in the bottom 26% of pitchers. That’s a good omen for Pollock, who is our top Projected Plus/Minus hitter on the DraftKings evening slate.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Bobby Dalbec ($2,100): First Baseman, Boston Red Sox
We don’t have to look far for our preferred bargain option at FanDuel. You’ll find Bobby Dalbec in the other dugout of the White Sox vs. Red Sox matchup, who should exceed his implied value on the main slate.
Thanks to a disappointing start to the season, the Red Sox first baseman carries a modest $2,100 salary heading into the rubber match at Fenway. However, there’s a disconnect between his advanced and traditional metrics, supporting he’s a progression candidate over his coming games.
Dalbec remains below expected values across the board. His actual batting average, slugging, and on-base percentages should improve while they work up towards expected ratings and career norms.
There’s a good chance that starts tonight against Dallas Keuchel. Aside from the obvious lefty vs. righty matchup, giving Dalbec an advantage at the plate, the White Sox southpaw has struggled this season. Keuchel ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected earned run average and expected weighted on-base percentage, both of which bode well for Dalbec.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($9,200 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Atlanta Braves
It’s not enough that Aaron Nola leads THE BAT X ceiling projections on Thursday’s slate, but he also comes at a discounted rate, particularly at FanDuel. The Phillies ace has alternated between quality starts and should peak in this NL East battle.
Nola has some of the nastiest strikeout stuff in the majors. The 28-year-old ranks in the 87th percentile in strikeout percentage, inducing a 42.9% whiff rate on his curveball and 33.3% on his changeup. Consequently, that’s driven his expected earned run average down to 2.76, putting him in the top 20% of pitchers.
Strikeouts come in bunches for Nola, who has recorded nine strikeouts in three of his past six starts while recording at least six punchouts in all six games.
The Braves can’t help themselves at the dish, leading the MLB in strikeouts with 431, resulting in a 29.5% strikeout percentage. That’s an excellent combination for upside.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Nothing can stop Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Mookie Betts these days, and we’re not expecting Humberto Castellanos and the Arizona Diamondbacks to offer much resistance.
The former MVP is annihilating baseballs, recording 11 hits over his past 25 at-bats, with eight of them going for extra bases. Betts has four doubles, four home runs, nine runs scored, and ten runs batted in over his past seven games and is showing no signs of slowing down.
That’s terrible news for Castellanos, who ranks in the bottom 35% of MLB pitchers in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and strikeout percentage. Making matters worse, Castellanos has allowed four home runs over his past 10.2 innings pitched.
Everything is turning up Betts these days. He rates among the elite hitters on tonight’s slate in median and ceiling projections on THE BAT X and FantasyLabs algorithms.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
You will be hard-pressed to find a top-rated lineup combination that doesn’t belong to the Dodgers. That is both a reflection of their hitting prowess and an indictment of Castellanos’ early-season struggles.
Of course, we discussed the merits of including Betts in your DFS lineups, but there are several other noteworthy hitters worthy of inclusion.
Freddie Freeman has been a revelation at Chavez Ravine. The former MVP is second on the team in slugging percentage and runs scored, with 20 of his 27 hits going for extra bases.
He’s joined near the top of the order by fellow left-handed batter Max Muncy. Muncy has struggled this season but remains well off his career averages. A matchup with Castellanos could precipitate increased productivity for Muncy.
That leaves Trea Turner and Will Smith in the power spots, batting third and fourth, respectively. Turner has been overshadowed by Betts but still has a .565 slugging percentage over the past seven days. Smith is also flying high, recording a .867 on-base plus slugging percentage over the last week.
Circumstances favor the Dodgers tonight, which is reflected in a lineup builder littered with LA combinations. We’ve got you covered with the highest-rated lineup.
