The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ryan Mountcastle ($2,400): First Baseman, Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are giving the New York Yankees everything they can handle early this week, taking the AL East leaders to extra innings last night after winning the series opener on Monday. Ryan Mountcastle comes into tonight’s matchup fresh after getting last night off, which is just one of several factors contributing to his bargain rating on tonight’s slate.
The right-handed batting Mountcastle gets an ideal matchup against southpaw JP Sears in home-run-friendly Yankee Stadium. That’s not to diminish Mountcastle’s personal metrics, as the 25-year-old has some analytics working in his favor.
The O’s first baseman has elite hitting metrics, ranking in the top 10% of MLB hitters in expected slugging percentage and expected batting average. Moreover, Mountcastle sits just outside the elite ratings in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, ranking in the 85th and 87th percentile, respectively.
Sears has seen limited action this season but gives up hard contact in 50% of at-bats, with an expected slugging percentage of .541. Baltimore could surprise the Yankees for a third straight game, and surely Mountcastle will get in on the action.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Joey Votto ($2,400): First Baseman, Cincinnati Reds
Every once in a while, Joey Votto likes to show us he’s still got a little magic left in his bat. Although the 38-year-old is a few seasons removed from his MVP, he still has elite hitting metrics that warrant inclusion on DFS rosters.
Votto has recorded hits in three of hits past four games, with all three raps going for extra bases, leading to two runs scored and two runs batted in. Still, there’s room to grow for Votto, who remains off the pace in his advanced stats and even further behind his career norms.
The six-time All-Star is just one season removed from posting a .592 expected slugging percentage and 53.2% hard-hit rate. It’s unlikely that he recaptures that glory this late in his career, but we should expect meaningful progress from Votto, who is still well off his career average expected slugging percentage of .514 and 39.2% hard-hit rate.
THE BAT X projections rank Votto favorably on tonight’s slate. The Reds’ first baseman leads our Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary categories. Votto should continue his hot streak and reach his fantasy ceiling against the Chicago Cubs.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($9,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Chicago White Sox continue to alternate between above and below-average performances, hovering around the .500 mark all season. However, they’re starting to make the most out of Lucas Giolito‘s appearances.
Giolito asserts himself on the mound with some of the filthiest strikeout stuff in the business. The right-hander has a strikeout percentage of 34.6%, putting him in the 95th percentile, and a whiff percentage placing him above 94% of MLB pitchers. His absolute metrics are just as impressive, punching out seven or more in four of his past five, leading to a career-best 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
The former All-Star has been impressive over his recent outings, winning two of his past three starts and throwing strikes 64% of the time.
Lastly, Giolitio has been more effective at home than on the road this season, with a decreased earned run average while allowing fewer baserunners, relative to his road splits.
All of that plays into the White Sox ace being rated as the top option on both platforms tonight, leading THE BAT X and our in-house projections on the evening slates.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
We’re breaking down another righty vs. lefty matchup, albeit with a superior fantasy ceiling compared to our bargain play. Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves host Ranger Suarez and the Philadelphia Phillies, leaving the Braves slugger with a noteworthy advantage.
Acuna Jr. has been an elite hitter since arriving in the bigs, consistently rating in the upper echelon of the MLB in several advanced categories. Most notably, the two-time Silver Slugger has been in the top 5% of hitters in expected slugging percentage in all four of his previous seasons, with a hard-hit rate in the top 3% of hitters in each of the past two seasons.
Pitchers are starting to take notice of the Braves’ right fielder, who didn’t return until the end of April while resolving his torn ACL from last year. Still, Acuna Jr. is rounding into shape with multi-hit efforts in three of his past five, with two extra-base hits, three runs scored, and three runs batted in.
Suarez doesn’t offer much at the plate in terms of resistance. The southpaw ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected slugging percentage, expected earned run average, and chase rate. That should allow Acuna Jr. to reach his fantasy ceiling, as per our algorithm.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Los Angeles Angels. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
It’s no surprise that the Halos are one of the best hitting teams in the league when they have guys like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. However, the rest of the top five hitters have a ton of upside against Glenn Otto tonight, making the Angels’ batting order look like a monster truck going over a speed bump.
Trout and Ohtani sit one-two on the Angels in on-base plus slugging percentage, home runs, and runs scored. The reigning MVP holds a modest advantage in runs batted in, leading Trout by two and Jared Walsh by one.
Walsh slots in at the four spot in the batting order and sits right behind the top two hitters in on-base plus slugging percentage with a .770 mark.
Anthony Rendon is the bridge that connects the top four hitters, projected to bat third against the Texas Rangers tonight. The 31-year-old has been a consistent contributor, ranking fifth in slugging percentage and runs batted in while also swatting five long balls.
Second baseman Luis Rengifo has been used sparingly this season but has been effective when called upon. Rengifo can hang with the big boys in this batting order, slugging .389 with a .770 on-base plus slugging percentage.
Otto is serving meatballs this season, and the Angels are here to feast. We expect Trout and company to deliver, rating as our top stack on the main slate.
