The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Wednesday’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
A.J. Pollock ($2,000): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox outfielder A.J. Pollock is off to a slow start this season but showing signs of progress over his recent sample. The former All-Star has hits in three of his past four games and eight hits over his past eight games, thanks to multi-hit efforts. He projects as the pre-eminent bargain play at DraftKings tonight, with a 3.8 Points/Salary rating and a 3.61 Projected Plus/Minus.
Pollock’s analytics paint a similar picture. The veteran outfielder has several advanced metrics implying that he’s due for sustained production. Pollock rates as one of the best barrel hitters in the MLB this season, ranking in the 86th percentile with a 13.1% barrel rating. His expected slugging percentage of .453 is significantly higher than his actual mark of .308, suggesting that more extra-base hits are on the horizon as actual catches up with expected.
At age 38, Zack Greinke‘s metrics have taken a turn for the worse. The former Cy Young winner ranks in the bottom 16th percentile in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and expected earned run average. Pollock should add to that misery on Wednesday night.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Joey Gallo ($2,600): Outfielder, New York Yankees
Joey Gallo is the can’t-miss bargain on tonight’s FanDuel slate. The New York Yankees slugger gets an ideal pitching matchup in a hitters-friendly park, making the top play in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary on both THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections.
Gallo has been an all-or-nothing hitter this season, with five of his past 11 hits going for home runs. Although his traditional stats have taken a hit this season, he remains one of the hardest hitters in all of baseball. Gallo ranks in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate, driving the ball with power 50.9% of the time. His expected slugging percentage is close behind, coming in at .558, putting the two-time All-Star in the 88th percentile.
Those analytics should all come together on Wednesday’s slate as the Yankees take to the field against Jordan Lyles and the Baltimore Orioles. Gallo has the benefit of the lefty-righty matchup at Camden Yards, which perennially ranks near the top of the Park Factor list for hits.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($10,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
There are some attractive pitching options on tonight’s slate, none more so than New York Mets ace Max Scherzer who leads THE BAT X ceiling projections on both platforms.
Scherzer refuses to slow down in his age 37 season. The eight-time All-Star continues to thrive pitching with the Mets, ranking among the league’s elite in nearly every advanced category. Where Scherzer continues to separate himself from the pack is with his first-class punchout ratings, an invaluable fantasy consideration.
Somehow, the three-time Cy Young winner has maintained his strikeout metrics through the latter half of his career. For the 13th consecutive season, Scherzer’s strikeout per nine inning rating is in double-digits. His 2022 rating of 11.3 is above his career average of 10.7, and his strikeout percentage still ranks in the top 9% of MLB hurlers.
We’re anticipating another top-rated fantasy performance from Scherzer on Wednesday, as the Cardinals’ hitting metrics take a hit on the road. St. Louis hitters strike out 23.8% of the time as the visitors, compared to just 19.9% of the time in their friendly confines. Similarly, their on-base plus slugging percentage drops over 30 points when they leave Busch Stadium.
Scherzer has been brilliant at home and should reach his fantasy ceiling against the Cards.
Hitter
Luis Robert ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
It hasn’t been a dream start to the season for the White Sox. Chicago has been fluttering around the .500 mark all season, struggling with consistent production. Nevertheless, Luis Robert has been one of the lone bright spots, putting the team on his back and almost single-handedly leading them to victory some nights.
The White Sox outfielder has hits in six of his past seven games, with four of those coming as multi-hit efforts. Robert has recorded one home run, five runs, and four runs batted in over that stretch but has an even higher fantasy ceiling against Greinke and the Royals.
As noted, Greinke has labored this season, but no American League has allowed more runs than the Royals. Robert and the White Sox can perpetuate both of those struggles on Wednesday night.
Robert is in the top 5% in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and max exit velocity. All of which supports that another solid fantasy performance can be expected from him tonight.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
There are several Yankees stacks that feature prominently on tonight’s slate, but our preferred approach is taking the top five hitters in the projected batting order. This method lends itself to long-term success, as the hitters’ success is strongly correlated.
DJ LeMahieu is the projected leadoff hitter, and although he’s flashed limited power this season, he remains an on-base threat every time he steps to the plate. LeMahieu has recorded the third-most hits and third-best on-base percentage, allowing hitters in the power spots to drive in runs.
That’s where Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton have shined, putting up MVP-caliber numbers. All three players have recorded at least 10 home runs and 24 runs batted in, with Judge, Stanton, and Rizzo ranking one, two, and three in on-base plus slugging percentage, respectively.
Josh Donaldson brings up the rear but has been no slouch at the plate, sitting fourth on the team in OPS, with 13 of his 29 hits going for extra bases.
Lyles will have his hands full with the top of the Yankees order, but there’s not much he can do to slow them down.
