The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Juan Yepez ($3,000): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
Any time you match up against Spenser Watkins and the Baltimore Orioles, there’s an opportunity for a big outing. Even more so for St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Juan Yepez, whose tenure with the Cards is off to a tremendous start.
The 24-year-old has played in just five games for the Cardinals but has made an impact in every outing. Yepez has multi-hit outings in four of his five appearances, going for extra bases in three of those. That has resulted in an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.289, with four runs and three runs batted in.
There’s no reason he’ll slow down against Watkins, who has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season. The righty ranks in the bottom 12% of MLB pitchers in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average and expected earned run average.
Yepez is a low-cost option with boom potential, ranking among the best in Projected Plus/Minus, making him our bargain of the night on the evening slate at DraftKings.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Brad Miller ($2,400): First Baseman/Outfielder, Texas Rangers
Consistency has been an issue for Texas Rangers’ utilityman Brad Miller to start the season. Miller hasn’t strung together hits in three straight games since the start of the season but can build off some of his recent performances.
The journeyman has hits in three of his past five games, knocking in five runs batted in, including his third home run of the season. Miller is contributing fantasy points in other ways, too, contributing two stolen bases over the five-game sample.
The pitching matchup on Wednesday night also favors Miller. The Kansas City Royals are sending right-hander Brady Singer to the bump for his first start of the season. The right-hander is at an immediate disadvantage against the left-handed batting Miller but is also getting barreled 11.1% of the time this season.
Miller’s upswing in production should continue against the ineffective Singer. THE BAT X projections have Miller rated as one of the best value plays on the board at FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($8,800 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Los Angeles Angels domination of the Tampa Bay Rays should continue on Wednesday, setting the stage for another epic performance from Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani is starting to figure things out at the plate, but he’s been dominant off the mound all season. The reigning MVP is striking out 14.0 per nine innings, inducing a .359 expected slugging percentage, placing him in the 77th percentile. His advanced strikeout metrics are even more impressive, with Ohtani ranking in the top 3% in strikeout percentage and top 4% in whiff rate.
The Rays can’t buy a hit, coming off a no-hit bid last night against Reid Detmers. That makes it just three runs on 15 hits over their past three outings.
The Japanese hurler is the top projected performer in THE BAT X and our in-house projections. He should perpetuate the Rays’ struggles on Wednesday night.
Hitter
Mike Trout ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Ohtani isn’t the only Angels starter worth playing on tonight’s slate. The Halos have outscored the Rays 23-3 through the first two games of the series, and there are a few indicators that Mike Trout can pile onto that tonight.
Tampa is sending youngster Shane McClanahan to the mound for his seventh start of the season. Although McClanahan has an abundance of metrics working in his favor, he has been hit hard over his past two outings, giving up three home runs and five runs over 10.1 innings.
If there’s one person on the Angels who can make him pay for those mistakes, it’s Trout. The three-time MVP is in the top 1% of batters with his .737 expected slugging percentage. That has increased since the Rays came to town, with Trout going 5-for-8 at the dish with three home runs, with six runs scored, and six runs batted in.
No one is stopping Trout right now, let alone McClanahan, who isn’t immune to giving up solid contact. Trout is worth the investment, as he leads THE BAT X ceiling projections on the evening slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Cardinals have a gauntlet of hitters atop their batting order. Tommy Edman is the projected lead-off hitter on Wednesday and paces the team with a .388 on-base percentage.
Edman has been the table-setter for Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill, who sit one-two on the Cards in runs batted in with 24 and 19, respectively. Moreover, Arenado is the team leader in home runs and on-base plus slugging percentage, illustrating his implied value on a nightly basis.
Of course, we can’t forget about the aforementioned Juan Yepez, who has been an invaluable contributor at the top of the lineup; or Paul Goldschmidt, who remains a legitimate offensive threat in his age 34 season.
As discussed, the Cards have an exploitable pitching matchup against Watkins and the O’s. The Cardinals are prominently featured amongst all of our top stacks and should maximize their fantasy production at home against Baltimore.
