The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Cal Mitchell ($2,100): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Cal Mitchell burst onto the scene at the end of May, recording hits in his first four MLB games. He’s cooled off over the last couple, but the youngster still has some appeal at a near-minimum salary.
Mitchell is among our leaders in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary for the evening slate at DraftKings. That upside is also reflected in his advanced metrics, supporting ongoing production. The 23-year-old is making solid contact to start his career, putting together a hard-hit rate of 50.0% and an average exit velocity of 91.4 miles per hour. Moreover, he’s making sweet spot contact 27.8% of the time, implying that he should start to see some of those hits go for extra bases.
The left-handed batting Mitchell gets an ideal matchup against Mitch White and the Dodgers. White is toting around a bloated 5.40 expected earned run average while giving up an expected slugging percentage of .478. The righty isn’t fooling anyone right now, inducing a chase rate that puts him in the bottom 1% of MLB pitchers.
The Pirates have had some success against the Dodgers early this series; Mitchell should perpetuate that on Wednesday.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Jesse Winker ($2,600): Outfielder, Seattle Mariners
It hasn’t been the start to his career that Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish was hoping for, which benefits Jesse Winker on tonight’s slate. The Seattle Mariners play the second of three games against the Orioles, looking to build off last night’s 10-0 win. Based on our analysis, there’s a good chance that continues, with Winker getting more involved in the action.
The Mariners’ left fielder is operating below expected values, a gap that is starting to widen. Through 202 plate appearances, Winker has a .287 slugging percentage and .312 on-base percentage. Those metrics have deviated from career norms and are below expected values of .445 and .353, implying that Winker is a progression candidate over his coming games.
We’re anticipating him to make meaningful progress against Bradish, who has been one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season. The O’s righty ranks in the bottom 10% of pitchers in most categories, including expected slugging percentage, expected earned run average, and barrel percentage. Those weighed Bradish down, resulting in a 7.31 earned run average and 1.52 walks and hits per inning pitched.
The Orioles have been the great equalizer over the last few seasons, and that bodes well for Winker, who is our top-rated bargain.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Nestor Cortes ($10,700 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Getting past the Los Angeles Angels is no easy task these days. Still, THE BAT X projections rate New York Yankees ace Nestor Cortes as the best available pitching option on the evening slate.
Cortes has been filthy this year. The Yankees southpaw has an expected earned run average of 2.17 while striking out 10.6 per nine innings. Not only do his underlying metrics put him as one of the best available on tonight’s docket, but they also rank Cortes as one of the best pitchers in the game this season.
The 27-year-old sits in the 93rd percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected batting average, and expected weighted on-base average. Cortes’s five-pitch mix keeps batters guessing, inducing a 30.2% strikeout rate.
The Angels are good, but they could be no match for Cortes, who has given up more than two earned runs just once in nine starts. He leads our ceiling and median projections, making him our top play on the mound.
Hitter
Byron Buxton ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins centerfielder and MVP-hopeful Byron Buxton has labored through injuries over the early part of the season. However, the 28-year-old appears to have turned a corner over his recent outings and could end the night as the best available hitter.
After being held hitless for six straight games, Buxton has recorded base knocks in five of his past six. He hasn’t found his power stroke, with only one of those five hits going for extra bases. Still, his advanced metrics suggest that greener pastures are on the horizon.
Buxton remains an elite hitter with an expected slugging percentage of .580 and an average exit velocity of 92.3 miles per hour. He’s getting barrel to ball better than just about everyone else, ranking in the top 5% of hitters with a 16.3% barrel rate. That’s in line with last year’s career-best mark of 17.9%, implying that we could see more growth from Buxton in the near future.
Detroit Tigers hurler Tarik Skubal is prone to giving up solid contact, with his 41.0% hard-hit rate. Buxton could push Skubal further down the list with a strong showing in Detroit.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Another day, another Lineup Builder that is dominated by Dodgers’ combinations.
Someone will have to find a way to contain Mookie Betts, but we don’t think it’s going to be Jose Quintana and his 4.21 expected earned run average. Betts continues to lead the Dodgers in on-base plus slugging percentage, which has jumped to 1.141 over the last seven days.
Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner have been nearly as impressive, ranking second and third in OPS, with Turner leading the way with 41 runs batted in. All three players have been fixtures in the top three batting spots and should continue to flourish at home on Wednesday.
Will Smith and Justin Turner are projected as the four and five batters for tonight’s series finale. Turner has been effective in the top half of the order, ranking third in runs batted in, with Smith sitting fifth.
The Dodgers’ third baseman has looked even better over his recent sample, ranking third on the team in OPS over the past week, posting a .565 slugging percentage and .423 on-base percentage.
Quintana has to run a gauntlet of elite hitting right-handed batters, which is roughly the equivalent of using a tarp to slow down the hoover dam. Dodgers are the best stacking option available tonight.
