The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nick Senzel ($2,400): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
Nick Senzel is expected to bat leadoff for the Reds, and he stands out in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He leads the way in both THE BAT and our in-house median projections at his very cheap salary, resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating. Senzel is still a little risky as he has only one game over five DraftKings points since returning from an illness.
Senzel and the Reds will get a matchup against Michael Wacha who is coming off of back-to-back poor starts for the Red Sox. He allowed seven earned runs in nine innings pitched during those two games, with two home runs and only five strikeouts. Wacha relies on soft contact as he has a career-low 17.1% strikeout rate this season. He has been great up until then, but Senzel has a chance to catch Wacha when he’s struggling.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Eduardo Escobar ($2,400): Third Baseman, New York Mets
Finding a value play from an elite offense like the Mets is very intriguing. Eduardo Escobar provides just that as he is projected to bat fifth for a team with a 5.3 implied team total. Escobar has recorded at least one hit in six of his last seven games with four doubles. His numbers increase to .343 wOBA, .250 ISO, and .500 slugging percentage when facing a left-handed pitcher, which he will get in this matchup tonight.
Escobar will be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin, who is off to a dreadful start for the Nationals. He has a career-high 6.30 ERA and 46.1% hard-hit rate. Corbin also has a 1.66 WHIP and a 17.6% strikeout rate, also career-worsts. His two outings against the Mets were solid this season, but that is the only positive he has going for him. Escobar is in a great spot at a fantastic salary on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kevin Gausman ($9,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
There are seven pitchers priced above $9,000 on DraftKings, but Gausman is the best option according to THE BAT and our in-house median projections. He has been incredibly consistent all season long in his first year with the Blue Jays. Gausman has pitched to a 0.16 HR/9 and a 29.3% strikeout rate, resulting in a career-low 2.25 ERA.
Gausman also has a fantastic matchup against the White Sox, who have scored the third-least amount of runs in the league and have a team wOBA of just .288 this season. Our models give Gausman a 6.33 strikeout prediction, the second-highest on the slate. He has recorded eight or more strikeouts in six of his nine starts. Gausman will likely carry the most ownership for any pitcher, but it is deserving for this matchup.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,100 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Where has the power gone for Ronald Acuna Jr.? After posting well over a .300 ISO the past two seasons, Acuna Jr. has just a .143 ISO this season with a career-high 31.9% strikeout rate. He has yet to hit a home run since returning from injury in 11 games. Despite all of that, Acuna Jr. is the only player with a median projection in the double digits on Tuesday’s slate, so the upside is still there.
Maybe this is the game Acuna Jr. gets back on track and sends a ball into the cheap seats? Diamondbacks starting pitcher Humberto Castellanos has allowed six home runs and 14 earned runs in his last four games. Castellanos has also allowed a career-high 36.4% hard-hit rate with only a 15.7% strikeout rate. Acuna Jr. will have no problem putting the ball in play. He is preferred on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Despite a Coors Field game on this slate, the Los Angeles Dodgers claim the top stack in THE BAT with their slate-high 5.7 implied run total.
The Dodgers are also a -335 favorite over the Pirates, which is also the highest on the slate. They lead the league with 267 runs and a .338 team wOBA, making them a tough fade as always.
Mookie Betts may be the toughest fade of them all, as he is on an absolute tear right now. Betts is the first player with 12 home runs and 30 runs scored in a month since 2010. Ten of those home runs have come in his last 17 games. He is arguably the best play on the slate with how well he has been playing lately.
Freddie Freeman has the same batting average (.304) as Betts but has a higher BABIP and on-base percentage. Both are fantastic options on this slate, but Freeman has the platoon advantage. Freeman has a higher ISO against right-handed pitchers and is another great option at a reasonable salary.
Staying consistent is what Trea Turner does best: he has at least one hit in 22 straight games. Turner leads the Dodgers with 39 RBI and 10 stolen bases. He is a versatile player that doesn’t rely on his power to make an impact. Turner’s ceiling may be a little lower than some of his teammates, but he can still provide value.
Will Smith continues to be one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The upside he provides at a position filled with many goose eggs is very valuable. Smith is a little boom or bust with getting on base and providing multiple hits, but he does possess a ton of power out of the clean-up spot.
According to THE BAT, sliding down to the sixth spot with Justin Turner is the preferred approach to finish out this stack. Turner has seven hits over the last four games, including five doubles. He’s also finished with double-digit DraftKings points in three of those four games. He is clicking at just the right time for this offense.
This powerful Dodgers stack gets a matchup against right-hander Mitch Keller, who has a 1-5 record with a 6.05 ERA. Keller has had a below 20% strikeout rate for three-straight seasons. Keller may not be in the game for long as he has thrown under 60 pitches in back-to-back starts, despite only allowing one earned run in each game. The Pirates relievers have logged the third-most innings pitched this season and have a 4.27 ERA, which ranks tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league. Look for another huge game from the Dodgers tonight.
