The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Oscar Gonzalez ($2,600): Outfielder Cleveland Guardians
Oscar Gonzalez has burst onto the Cleveland Guardians’ scene and is proving to be an offensive catalyst. Through the first 11 games of his MLB career, Gonzalez has 16 hits, five doubles, and five runs batted in; more importantly, he’s got the advanced metrics to backup sustained production.
Gonzalez’s launch angle is holding back his ability to send balls into orbit. Still, the youngster is seeing the ball well and making solid contact, with a hard-hit rate of 51.3% and an average exit velocity of 91.6 miles per hour. In combination with his sweet spot rating of 33.3%, Gonzalez has a .521 expected slugging percentage. His .477 slugging percentage is impressive, but there is still room for growth as actual catches up with expected.
The Guardians take to the field against Dane Dunning and the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, amplifying Gonzalez’s underrated potential. Dunning ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected slugging percentage, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, which should facilitate Gonzalez’s ongoing success.
According to THE BAT X projections, Gonzalez has top-rated a Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, making him a bargain worth rostering on DraftKings tonight.
Note: Be sure to monitor the weather for tonight’s game prior to lock.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Bobby Dalbec ($2,000): First Baseman, Boston Red Sox
Bobby Dalbec has been overshadowed by nearly every other Red Sox hitter this season. The former fourth-round selection is slugging just .295 this season, with more strikeouts than hits. Nevertheless, we’re highlighting Dalbec as a progression candidate, starting tonight against the Los Angeles Angels.
Dalbec ended last season with elite hitting metrics, putting together a .522 expected slugging percentage and 20.2% barrel percentage. Those metrics have tapered off this season and remain below three-year norms, implying that Dalbec should expect some luck in the batter’s box.
The 26-year-old’s 9.4% barrel rate is nearly half of his career average of 17.8%. Similarly, Dalbec has put together a .500 expected slugging percentage throughout his career, which exceeds his expected percentage of .415 and laps his actual slugging percentage of .295.
All things considered, the pendulum should start swinging the other way for Dalbec. All of Detmers advanced metrics rank in the bottom half of the league, furthering Dalbec’s cause and making him our favorite bargain option at FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
You wouldn’t know it from looking at his 3-4 record, or 3.92 earned run average, but Aaron Nola continues to assert himself as an elite pitcher. Irrespective of modeling, Nola has a first-rate fantasy ceiling as the Phillies travel to take on the Milwaukee Brewers.
The former All-Star has been consistent this season, ranking in the 84th percentile in expected earned run average, expected batting average, and expected weighted on-base average, all while putting up 30.2% strikeout and 3.8% walk rates.
Although Nola has a losing record so far this season, he’s posted some career-best numbers. The former first-round selection is allowing just 0.93 walks and hits per inning pitched, setting a new benchmark. Additionally, he’s only 0.04 off his previous low in expected earned run average, posting a 2.81 mark so far this season.
In reconciling where Nola is expected to be with where he’s at, it’s evident that we can expect more from the Phillies’ ace. A matchup against the Brewers and their .554 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week only brightens Nola’s shine on tonight’s slate.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,00 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
MVP candidate Jose Ramirez may have fallen off his otherworldly pace from last week, but no one matches his fantasy ceiling on Wednesday’s slate.
The Cleveland Guardians’ third baseman has been damaging baseball over the past month, recording a .610 slugging percentage and .358 on-base percentage. Ramirez is sending fans home with souvenirs, cranking seven long balls over the outfield wall, leading to 23 runs batted in and 15 runs scored.
Strikeouts are almost non-existent with Ramirez, as he’s been punched out just six times in his last 82 at-bats. That’s leading to a lot of good contact, as the three-time Silver Slugger has a sweet spot rate of 34.5% and a barrel rate of 9.2% so far this season.
As noted, Dunning’s advanced metrics leave more to be desired, giving the Guardians an unneeded advantage at home. Ramirez will be the biggest beneficiary tonight as he looks to maintain his MVP-caliber pace from the last month. That makes him our ceiling projection pick on the evening slate.
Note: Be sure to monitor the weather for tonight’s game prior to lock.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the New York Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
On the topic of MVP candidates, we would be remiss not to include Aaron Judge in the conversation. Judge is a top contender to dethrone Shohei Ohtani; he and his Yankee teammates a form and imposing stacking option tonight against the Minnesota Twins.
Judge is the MLB leader in on-base plus slugging percentage and home runs, sitting second in runs scored and fourth in runs batted in. The three-time All-Star is the focal point on offense and is an integral option on any Yankees stack.
He’s insulated by DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo, giving pitchers no other option to pitch to Judge. Still. LeMahieu and Rizzo are no slouches in the batter’s box. Rizzo is second to Judge in home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored. LeMahieu is setting the table ahead of the two sluggers, ranking fourth on the team in runs scored while chipping in with 24 runs batted in.
Giancarlo Stanton recently rejoined the Yankees roster and is the usual resident in the fourth spot of the batting order. Stanton sent a solo shot into orbit last night and should continue his upward trend against Chris Archer, and his 5.52 expected earned run average on Wednesday.
Lastly, Josh Donaldson wraps up the top five. The former MVP remains a valuable fantasy contributor, knocking in and scoring 17 runs, with a .730 on-base plus slugging percentage.
The betting market validates the Yankees as a top stacking option, with New York entering the contest as -175 favorites, with a total of 9.
