The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jesus Aguilar ($2,200): First Baseman, Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar is trending in the right direction over his recent sample. Based on our projections, Aguilar is expected to continue his upward trajectory against the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday.
Aguilar has recorded hits in seven of his past nine outings, totaling 10 hits, with three of those going for extra bases. Those have been productive at-bats for the bottom-of-the-order hitter, driving in four runs and cashing five times.
Moreover, we’re anticipating ongoing success for the 31-year-old, who remains below expected and average values. Through nine years in the majors, Aguilar has a slugging average of .460 with a .428 expected mark this season.
Aguilar’s recent sample is good indicator for what to expect today against Andre Pallante and the Cards. The Marlins’ first baseman ranks among THE BAT X’s top Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary leaders, making him our top bargain on DK’s evening slates.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Max Muncy ($3,100): Second/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers
This season isn’t off to an ideal start for Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Max Muncy. The two-time All-Star is well below career norms in most hitting categories, meaning there’s only one direction for him to go.
Muncy remains one of the most disciplined hitters in MLB, ranking in the 100th percentile in walk rate and chase rate. Similarly, he has an elite-ranked barrel percentage, connecting on 12.1% of hits. Still, he’s delivering an insignificant .302 slugging percentage so far this campaign, suggesting that greener pastures are on the horizon.
The thin mountain air at Coors Field and German Marquez‘s substandard metrics support that Muncy could be due for a breakout performance. Marquez sits in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, while allowing 33 earned runs in 44.1 innings in his “friendly” confines.
We are high on Muncy on tonight’s FanDuel slate. His left-handed bat can do damage against righty Marquez and his shoddy home splits. That’s reflected in the BAT X projections and validated with our in-house model, both of which rank Muncy as the top bargain available.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($9,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Shohei Ohtani is a cheat code. The reigning MVP is coming off 8.0 shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Kansas City Royals, punching out 13 and allowing just one walk. He remains a top option tonight at home against the Chicago White Sox.
Ohtani is putting up the best strikeout metrics of his career. Through 12 starts, the 27-year-old has a career-best 33.0% strikeout rate and 11.9 Ks per nine innings. That’s bad news for the White Sox, who are coming off a 12-strikeout performance last night. They’ve gotten fanned 20 times since landing in L.A.
Take note of Ohtani’s gaudy home splits. The dual-threat has a paltry 2.45 earned run average at Angel Stadium, allowing just 0.85 walks and hits per inning pitched.
Once again, the Angels’ ace leads our median and ceiling projections on both platforms. Ohtani is an elite pitching option, and although he’ll be hard-pressed to match last week’s lights-out performance, we’re still anticipating he’s the top-performing pitcher.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,100 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Nothing gets a hitter back on track like a date with Dylan Bundy. The Minnesota Twins hurler has put up some forgettable metrics this season, which should help Jose Ramirez get back on track.
Ramirez has fallen off his MVP pace recently, putting up a .709 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past seven days. That’s fallen well below his .992 average this season, suggesting that it’s time for the pendulum to start swinging in the other direction.
The three-time Silver Slugger’s four-game sample could be foreshadowing for what to expect in the near future. Ramirez has hits in three of his past four contests, accumulating five hits, four of which have been doubles.
He’s in a good position to maintain that benchmark against Bundy, who has a 10.6% barrel rate this season, ranking among the bottom 14% of pitchers. Additionally, Bundy’s expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity and whiff percentage rate are in the 37th percentile or lower.
Ramirez could take Bundy to the woodshed tonight, and that’s reflected in our algorithms. The Guardians’ third baseman is our favorite ceiling play on tonight’s docket.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
There’s no escaping the value the Dodgers bring on tonight’s DFS slates. We’ve highlighted Muncy as a bargain option, but he’s surrounded with elite hitters that are worth stacking against the Colorado Rockies.
Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman have been one of the deadliest one-two punches over the last couple of weeks. With Mookie Betts on the shelf, Turner has taken over the leadoff spot, delivering a 1.045 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past 15 days.
He’s playing catch up with Freeman, who has an absurd 1.154 mark thanks to three home runs and seven extra-base knocks. Freeman’s complemented that with 12 runs batted in and nine runs scored.
Catcher Will Smith has also elevated his efforts over his recent outings, contributing a .926 on-base plus slugging percentage. He’s also tied with the aforementioned Turner for the team lead with four long balls over the 15-day sample.
Lastly, we can’t forget about the other Turner, Justin Turner. The Dodgers’ third baseman has three multi-hit efforts since June 21 and has a career .500 slugging percentage at Coors Field, well above the .211 mark he’s delivered there this season.
After putting up just four runs through the first two games of the series, the Dodgers are due for a breakout performance. They are our top stacking option against Marquez and the Rockies.
