The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jack Suwinski ($2,200): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
Everybody should be hopping on the Jack Suwinski train. The Pittsburgh Pirates rookie outfielder has been scorching opponents over the past week, and he projects as our top value hitter on tonight’s slate.
Suwinski’s modest four-game hitting streak came to an end last night against the Chicago Cubs, extending his on-base streak to five games with two walks. In the four games prior, Suwinski had recorded six hits, with four of those going for extra bases, including three home runs against the San Francisco Giants on Sunday.
The 23-year-old is getting barrel to ball better than most other hitters in the MLB, with a 13.7% barrel rate. Moreover, he’s tormenting right-handed pitchers, posting a .510 slugging percentage and a .300 BABIP. That spells trouble for Keegan Thompson and the Chicago Cubs.
The Pirates offense has come to life recently, recording 23 runs over their past three outings and winning all three contests. Suwinski is a big part of that improved play and leads THE BAT X Projected Plus/Minus on tonight’s slate.
He could easily surpass the implied value of his $2,200 salary and reach his fantasy ceiling against the Cubs.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Patrick Wisdom ($2,300): Third Base, Chicago Cubs
We don’t have to look far for our top value play on the FanDuel main slate. Cubs third baseman Patrick Wisdom is coming off a 2-for-3 performance last night against the Pirates, with one double and one long ball. He should continue his upward trajectory tonight in Pittsburgh.
Wisdom is one of the hardest hitters in the big leagues. The former first-round draft pick sits in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate and the 97th percentile in barrel rate, resulting in a .481 expected slugging percentage. Still, Wisdom is coming up short of that mark, posting a .458 mark through his first 256 plate appearances of the season.
There’s a good chance Wisdom surpasses last night’s performance against Jerad Eickhoff tonight. Eickhoff is making his first start of the season after posting a 10.17 expected earned run average last year. The 31-year-old serves meatballs, and Wisdom is bringing his knife and fork to the plate.
Reconciling Wisdom’s actual metrics with expected reveals a player who should continue to progress over his coming games, particularly against Eickhoff.
That’s reflected in our projections as the Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary leader. Wisdom is our favorite bargain play at FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($8,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani comes at a discounted rate against one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. Still, he leads THE BAT X median and ceiling projections on both platforms and is worth including in any lineup.
Ohtani is coming off 6.0 shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners, maintaining his elite strikeout metrics since the start of the season. The 27-year-old is mowing down 11.5 batters per nine innings, inducing a whiff rate that puts him in the 87th percentile among MLB pitchers. We’re expecting an improvement to those metrics after Ohtani runs through the Kansas City Royals lineup a few times.
The Royals have been completely undisciplined at the plate recently, accumulating 12 or more strikeouts in two of their past three. They’ve struggled mightily at the dish this season, posting the seventh-worst on-base plus slugging percentage and recording the fourth-fewest runs.
With respect to his pitching metrics, Ohtani is right on last season’s MVP pace. The former Rookie of the Year is nearing career-best marks in earned run average and walks and hits per inning pitched while posting a new benchmark in fielding independent pitching.
Ohtani’s fantasy value is reflected in THE BAT X projections and validated by our in-house algorithm, also ranking him as the top pitching option.
Hitter
Byron Buxton ($6,100 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins slugger and MVP hopeful Byron Buxton has some sterling advanced metrics that should help him against the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday night.
Buxton’s hitting profile reads like a heat map of the desert. The former Platinum Glove winner ranks in the top 10% of MLB hitters in several noteworthy categories, including expected weighted on-base average, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage; the latter two put him in the 96th percentile.
That’s bad news for Triston McKenzie, who seemingly can’t avoid barrels this season. McKenzie ranks in the bottom 23% of pitchers in barrel percentage, contributing to his .465 expected slugging percentage and 41.3% hard-hit rate. The 24-year-old has given up five home runs across his last three starts, setting the stage for an epic Buxton performance.
Buxton leads the Twins with 19 dingers, but more impressively 28 of his 44 hits this season have gone for two or more bases, resulting in a .570 slugging percentage. Small wonder our projections rank Buxton as one of the best hitters available.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Cubs. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
All due respect to Eickhoff, things are going to get ugly in Pittsburgh tonight.
We’ve discussed the merits of including Wisdom in your lineup, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs with the four batters projected ahead of him in the batting order.
Christopher Morel is the projected leadoff hitter and comes into tonight’s NL Central battle with seven hits over his past seven games. Morel has seen a recent surge in power, with three of those seven hits going for extra bases, including two home runs.
He’s followed by Willson Contreras, who has been the Cubs’ best hitter this season. The veteran catcher leads the team in on-base and slugging percentages, totaling 12 long balls, 27 runs batted in, and 40 runs scored.
Ian Happ has been the beneficiary of Contreras and Morel’s plate appearances and is tied for the team lead with 32 runs batted in thanks to his team-best 65 hits.
The Cubs continue to deploy Rafael Ortega near the top of the order, and he’s delivered a .350 on-base percentage to go along with four stolen bases. That’s helped batters behind him in the order make the most of their plate appearances.
The Cubbies dominate our lineup projections, and we’ve picked the best-correlated combination for tonight’s action.
