The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Adam Duvall ($2,600): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves
There’s nothing quite like the thin mountain air to boost a player’s fantasy ceiling, but that’s far from the only factor impacting Adam Duvall‘s projections against the Colorado Rockies. Duvall has several noteworthy metrics working in his favor, making him our bargain value on DraftKings.
The Braves outfielder enters the series opener on a modest three-game hit streak, with one extra-base hit and one run scored in last night’s 6-0 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Those recent performances have elevated Duvall’s slugging percentage to .272, leaving him well off his expected values and career norms.
Entering tonight’s contest, Duvall has a .366 expected slugging percentage, nearly 100 points above actual. Similarly, he remains substantially below his career average of .460, putting him on the precipice of an outburst. Duvall’s hard-hit rate is starting to climb, and we should see that lead to more productive at-bats.
Balls are flying out of Coors Field, with 40 runs scored over the last couple of days. We’re anticipating more of the same on Thursday, with Duvall getting in on the action.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Joey Votto ($2,500): First Baseman, Cincinnati Reds
Reds’ first baseman Joey Votto is a bargain player we keyed in on a couple of weeks ago. Votto has maintained his production but hasn’t seen his DFS salary increase, making him an attractive low-cost option on tonight’s docket.
The former MVP has hits in eight of his last 11 outings, with eight of his ten hits going for extra bases. Over that stretch, Votto has five doubles, two home runs, and one triple, driving in seven runs and cashing four times himself.
Votto’s barrel rate suggests that further progression is anticipated. The 38-year-old remains off his expected values but is getting barrel to ball 9.7% of the time and making sweet spot contact on 37.5% of hits. Both are good indicators that Votto should continue his recent hot streak.
According to THE BAT X projections, Votto has the best Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary rating, making him the top-rated bargain at FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sean Manaea ($9,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
There are some tantalizing pitching options on tonight’s slate, but none more so than Padres southpaw Sean Manaea. Manaea hasn’t missed a beat since joining the Friars and should start to see a few more wins pile up in the win column.
The 30-year-old is in fine form, recording 30 strikeouts over his past four starts and surpassing eight punchouts in two of four outings. That’s elevated his K/9 rate to 9.6 and his strikeout percentage to 26.4%, putting him in the 76th percentile among MLB pitchers.
Those strikeout metrics could look even better after tonight’s battle against the Brewers. The Brew Crew are off to a free-swinging start to the season, recording the fourth-most strikeouts in the majors. They’ve been particularly reckless at the plate recently, hitting double-digit Ks in three straight games.
Manaea has the top-rated median and ceiling projections on THE BAT X projections. His elite ceiling is validated with our in-house algorithm, which has him as the best option available on the main slates.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Braves slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. leads our projections, and it’s not particularly close. Our MLB Models give him a substantive advantage over Austin Gomber and the Rockies, which could perpetuate some recent concerning results.
As noted, Coors Field has tallied 40 runs over the past two games, with 26 of those coming from road squads. Colorado has exhausted their bullpen over that stretch, totaling 8.2 innings pitched while going through 11 different pitchers. That means Gomber will be tasked with taking on a more significant role, which could end in disaster.
Acuna has put a charge into the ball since returning to action at the end of April. The two-time Silver Slugger has a 15.7% barrel percentage, with an average exit velocity of 94.4 miles per hour. In combination with his 35.3% sweet spot rating, Acuna Jr’s slugging percentage should be higher than it is. Still, the 24-year-old is delivering extra-base knocks on 34.8% of hits.
Runs will be in play tonight, and the right-handed batting Acuna will have plenty of opportunities to shine against left-handed pitching Gomber.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
You will be hard-pressed to find a lineup combination that exceeds the Braves’ projected points on Thursday. Although we’ve discussed the merits of including several other Atlanta hitters, there is a lineup that rates better than any other available tonight.
Acuna Jr. is the projected leadoff hitter and is a pillar of any Braves’ stack.
Batting behind him, Ozzie Albies is a valuable fantasy option that should continue his upward trend. Albies is slugging .435 over the last week — including four doubles — with two runs batted in and three runs scored. The switch-hitting Albies has also historically fared best against southpaws.
Dansby Swanson and Marcell Ozuna are projected as the three and four hitters and worth including in your Braves stacks. Ozuna has two home runs over the past seven days, resulting in a .565 slugging percentage. Swanson’s been one of the team’s best hitters all season, sitting third among Atlanta qualified hitters with a .760 on-base plus slugging percentage.
We’re rounding out our Braves stack with Austin Riley, who has been the most productive Braves player over their recent sample. Riley has an otherworldly .880 slugging percentage, with four long balls, nine hits, and eight runs batted in over his last six games.
Gomber is combustible, and the Braves are bringing the flames. Atlanta is our top stacking option on the evening slate.
