The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ezequiel Duran ($2,500): Second/Third Baseman, Texas Rangers
If you haven’t already heard of him, it’s time to take notice of Texas Rangers infielder Ezequiel Duran. Duran has just 44 MLB plate appearances, but he’s already delivering exceptional results.
The international free agent is slugging .535 with 14 hits, two home runs, five RBIs, and eight runs scored through his first 11 games. Duran is seeing the ball well, coming into tonight’s contest on a five-game hitting streak with four of his eight hits going for extra bags.
The 23-year-old has some standout analytics, as well. Duran is making sweet-spot contact 30.0% of the time and delivering a hard-hit rate of 43.3%. The youngster is showing maturity beyond his years, delivering a .304 batting average off breaking and offspeed pitches.
Duran’s bargain fantasy appeal is illustrated throughout THE BAT X projections. He’s among the leaders in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, with a ceiling that exceeds the implied value of his salary. Duran is the man versus the Tigers.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Nick Castellanos ($2,700): Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have the enviable task of getting to southpaw Patrick Corbin on Thursday night. According to our algorithm, that should lead to big things from right-handed batting Nick Castellanos.
The Phillies’ outfielder has been trending up over the past couple of weeks, recording hits in seven of his past nine outings. Still, Castellanos is below his expected slugging percentage of .493, implying that he’s a progression candidate over his coming games.
Similarly, the former Silver Slugger continues to deliver above-average barrel metrics but is falling short of career benchmarks this season. Castellanos should work towards norms and expected values against Corbin, who ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, expected earned run average, and hard-hit rate.
Castellanos has a top-rated fantasy ceiling but comes at a discounted rate, making him the best bargain on FanDuel slates.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Luis Severino ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Yankees pitchers have dominated the Rays through the first two games of their series. Luis Severino can add to the Rays’ offensive misery and is our top-rated pitcher on tonight’s slate.
Severino is throwing gas this month, recording 10 strikeouts in each of his last two starts. However, his elite performances extend beyond punchouts. The two-time All-Star has totaled 13.0 innings pitched, allowing just one earned run on eight hits and two walks. Severino is in an excellent position to maintain those stats against a Rays team struggling at the plate.
Tampa’s .670 on-base plus slugging percentage is the fifth-worst in the majors and has fallen to .645 over the last seven days. Strikeouts are also starting to creep up for the defending AL East Champs, with 19 Ks in this series.
Severino is in the upper echelon of MLB pitchers, ranking in the top 10% in expected earned run average and expected weighted on-base average. That puts the Rays at an even bigger disadvantage as they try to salvage one game against the MLB leaders.
The Yankees hurler leads THE BAT X median and ceiling projections on both platforms and is a must-have on tonight’s main slate.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Severino’s offensive counterpart is our ceiling projection pick against the Rays, with Aaron Judge ranking as one of the top-hitters available.
The two-time Silver Slugger leads the majors in runs, home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS+. Somehow Judge has found a new gear over his recent sample, going 8-for-24 with three home runs and one double over his previous six outings.
Tampa is turning to Jalen Beeks as the opener, meaning Judge gets to tee off against a Rays bullpen that has given up the seventh-most home runs this season. The righty versus lefty matchup is something that Judge can take advantage of early, but no one is getting in the way of his 63.1% hard-hit rate or .785 expected slugging percentage.
Judge’s fantasy value is best reflected in his meteoric rise in the AL MVP futures market. The Yankees slugger is the odds-on favorite to hoise the award, and his projection reflect that elite ceiling on a near-nightly basis. Judge sits top three in THE BAT X median and ceiling projections while also ranking highly in our in-house projections.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Phillies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Opposing pitchers have no choice but to pitch to the top of the Phillies’ order, and they continue to make them pay for any mistakes.
Kyle Schwarber sets the table, ranking top three on the team in on-base plus slugging percentage and runs scored while leading the team in long balls with 16.
That leaves plenty of opportunities for the batters behind him, and Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper haven’t disappointed. Harper and Hoskins sit one-two in slugging percentage and runs batted in, with the reigning NL MVP also leading the team in runs, hits, and extra-base hits knocks.
Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto compete the five-player stack, batting fourth and fifth, respectively. Castellanos is the projected clean-up hitter and has the second-most doubles and fourth-most runs batted in. Realmuto is no slouch batting fifth, ranking among the top five on the team in slugging percentage, runs scored, and doubles.
Our Lineup Builder is littered with Phillies’ stacks, and we’ve highlighted the highest projected combination ahead of tonight’s matchups.
