The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Oscar Gonalez ($2,800): Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians
There’s nothing like the thin mountain air at Coors Field to bring out the best in a hitter. That’s the case for the already hot-swinging Oscar Gonzalez as the Cleveland Guardians play the second game of their three-game set against the Colorado Rockies.
Gonzalez busted onto the MLB scene like a man possessed. The 24-year-old has a .507 slugging percentage through his first 70 plate appearances, driving in six runs and cashing six times. His underlying metrics support that this is more than just beginner’s luck, and Gonzalez has a sustainable pace.
The rookie outfielder has nearly matched his expected slugging percentage of .509 while delivering 49.2% hard-hit and 30.5% sweet spot rates. Despite the gaudy metrics, Gonzalez has yet to send a ball into the bleachers. That could change in Denver, as Coors Field has the top-rated home run Park Factor.
The hard-hitting righty is among the top-ranked batters in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, making him our bargain play on DraftKings tonight.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Patrick Wisdom ($3,100): Third Baseman, Chicago Cubs
Patrick Wisdom rates not only as one of the top bargains but as one of the elite hitters overall. At $3,100 and with the third-highest ceiling, we’re calling him our must-play bargain value on the main slate at FanDuel.
The third baseman remains a staple at the top of the Chicago Cubs batting order and comes into tonight amid an increase in production. Wisdom has multi-hit games in two of his past three outings, with one extra-base knock. Still, there’s room for growth from the 30-year-old as he continues to put forward elite analytics.
Wisdom ranks in the top 5% of MLB hitters, with a 51.6% hard-hit rate and top 3% with a 17.5% barrel rate. Those metrics have helped him to 12 home runs and 13 doubles, representing more than half of his 46 hits this season. His .459 slugging percentage remains short of expected values and his career norms, implying that more productive at-bats are on the horizon.
That could come tonight against lefty Ryan Weathers and the San Diego Padres, as Wisdom is slugging .535 against southpaws, with a 6.2% home run rate. Wisdom leads out Projected Plus/Minus rankings and should reach his fantasy ceiling on Wednesday.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Nestor Cortes ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Nestor Cortes
Fifth-year pro Nestor Cortes has been seemingly unhittable this season. The New York Yankees pitcher is setting benchmarks across the board and should continue his dominance against one of the worst hitting teams in the league, the Tampa Bay Rays.
Cortes sits in the 95th percentile in expected earned run average and expected weighted on-base average, allowing just 0.92 walks and hits per inning pitched and putting together a 195 ERA+. The Yankees southpaw is also punching out batters at a career-best 28.6% rate, leading to 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Rays have struggled at the plate this season, putting up the fifth-worst on-base plus slugging percentage and sitting in the bottom half of the league with only 58 long balls. Their lineup is littered with left-handed batters, giving Cortes yet another unneeded advantage on the bump.
According to THE BAT X algorithm, Cortes has the highest fantasy ceiling on the evening slate, leading both DraftKings and FanDuel projections.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Another day, another projection led by Guardians slugger Jose Ramirez. The MVP hopeful is on an absurd pace this season, and there’s nothing Austin Gomber can do to slow him down.
Ramirez is the MLB leader in runs batted in and triples, ranking second in slugging percentage and tied for sixth with 16 home runs. The three-time Silver Slugger is putting a charge into the ball every time he steps up to the dish, with 60.3% of his 63 hits going for extra bases.
The switch-hitting third baseman comes into tonight’s contest on a six-game hitting streak, with six doubles, two homers, nine runs batted in, and six runs scored over that stretch. Considering his current form, Gomber’s scouting report is going to read like a dessert menu for Ramirez.
The three-time All-Star is victimizing pitchers right now, and Coors Field could amplify his already impressive metrics. Ramirez leads THE BAT X median and ceiling projections, which are validated by our in-house algorithm that also ranks him as the best hitter available.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Cubs. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Cubbies are coming off a five-run performance last night, but they project even better tonight against Padres’ projected starter Weathers, making his first start of the season.
Christopher Morel is the projected leadoff hitter and has been one of Chicago’s top hitters this season. Morel sits third on the team list (min. 20 games played) with a .815 on-base plus slugging percentage.
Behind him are Willson Contreras and the aforementioned Wisdom. Contreras has been the preeminent offensive player for the Cubs this season, leading the team with a .546 slugging percentage, 38 runs scored, and 12 home runs.
Frank Schwindel and Ian Happ round off the Cubs stack, batting fourth and sixth, respectively. Happ has been swinging a hot bat, recording hits in three straight games with a triple, dinger, and three runs scored. Similarly, Schwindel is the team leader in runs batted in this season, with 32, eight of which have come since the start of June.
Our stacking tool favors the Cubs today, and we’ve landed on the highest projected combination as Chicago looks to improve off last night’s effort.
