The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Jake Meyers ($2,000): Outfielder, Houston Astros
Called up to the Astros in June, Meyers has impressed so far as a rookie, batting .302 in 43 at-bats. He has a positive Plus/Minus rating in each of his last seven games.
Lacking massive home run potential, Meyers is batting .364 so far in July and is starting to cut down on the strikeouts. He is a great dart throw option tonight at the end of your lineup.
The Astros face right-hander Paul Blackburn of the Athletics tonight. Blackburn is 6-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 16 starts this season.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Brandon Nimmo ($2,900): Outfielder, New York Mets
Talk about a hot streak. Over his last four games, Nimmo has FanDuel totals of 15.70, 31.70, and 41.10 points.
The 29-year-old outfielder is batting .278 on the year with just seven home runs, but two have come since July 4.
Nimmo has a tough matchup Friday vs. Pablo Lopez, who owns a solid 2.97 ERA and 5-4 record, but this is too cheap of a price tag for the Mets’ typical leadoff hitter.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Giolito has the 14th highest pitching salary on the slate tonight and the highest ceiling projection. He will likely be a high-ownership bargain target in lineups against the lowly Tigers batting order.
His 5-4 record and 4.90 ERA will not turn any heads, but neither will the Tigers hitters. Detroit has the fewest number of home runs and runs scored in the league.
Giolito was solid in his last outing, putting up 26.50 DraftKings points against the Giants on July 3. The projections expect he will top that number again tonight.
Hitter
Christian Yelich ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Just three seasons ago, Yelich was smashing the ball and leading the league with a .329 batting average and an 1.100 OPS. After two shortened seasons, he is batting just .251 in 2022.
Still, we know the potential is there with Yelich for big games, and he is coming on as of late with a +2.23 Plus/Minus over his last ten outings. He has double-digit DraftKings points in 10 of his previous 15 games.
Tonight, the Brewers face the Pirates’ JT Brubaker, who is 2-7 with a 4.28 ERA. Yelich is a solid upside option without the superstar price tag.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.
The Yankees’ historically great first half of the 2022 season has their lineup living up to the “Bronx Bombers” tradition. The Yankees lead the major leagues with 141 home runs on the year, 14 more than the second-place Braves and an incredible 91 more than the last-place Tigers.
Tonight, the Yankees take on their rivals in Boston against right-handed pitcher Connor Seabold making a treacherous spot start for the Red Sox. Seabold has three career starts over the last two seasons with a career 7.71 ERA in 11.2 innings.
Aaron Judge will be licking his lips tonight to extend his league-leading 30 home runs and 65 runs scored. Through 80 games, Judge is putting up MVP-caliber numbers, including a 3.7 WAR, .456 xwOBA, and 95.4 average exit velocity.
His outfield-mate Giancarlo Stanton has seven home runs over his last 13 games and a +2.07 Plus/Minus over his previous 10. The former Marlins star is only hitting .237 but is top-3% in the league with a .421 xwOBA and .619 xSLG, according to Baseball Savant.
Check the starting lineups before the start of the slate, as Anthony Rizzo has been out the last three games. If he can return to the lineup, he’s a strong option at first base. Rizzo hit 10 home runs in June and has already matched his 2021 season total of 22. His salary has dropped over the last week, making him a potential bargain.
The stack rounds out with third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Joey Gallo. Donaldson has homered in two straight games and put up 20+ DraftKings points in each. Gallo hits much better against right-handers with a .328 wOBA and .246 ISO.
